. . . and here comes another government shutdown deadline (Nov. 22) (1 Viewer)

superchuck500

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Due a to deal struck in September, most of the federal government (funded by the 12 annual appropriations bills extend in September) faces a shutdown if new funding or a new resolution is not signed into law by the end of the day, Thursday November 21.

Unlike last years's shut-down that impacted slightly less than half of the federal government, the funding set to expire November 21 would impact most of the government, and the legislative branch. This facet makes it particularly interesting as the GOP-controlled Senate and White House could ostensibly use shutdown to force the House's ongoing investigation to go forward on an unpaid basis.

Such a strategy by Trump and his supporters would carry substantial risk both politically (more than half of Americans blamed Trump for last year's shutdown) and economically, as the increasingly precarious U.S. economy has been well-supported by consumer spending and consumer confidence over the past two quarters. A shutdown at the end of November and stretching into the holiday payroll season would likely damage one of the most important periods for the segments of the U.S. economy that are consumer driven. Anticipating these results would also likely cause a sell-off on Wall Street.

For that reason, I think Trump would be foolish to try to use shutdown as way to get leverage against the House.


Congress could navigate a shutdown and a presidential impeachment inquiry if lawmakers and the Trump administration can’t reach an agreement on government funding during the next three weeks.

The two events haven’t overlapped before in the nation’s history. If that happens next month, however, roughly 2 million federal workers would get hit in their wallets as the holiday season begins, including staffers working on the impeachment proceedings.
. . .
None of the dozen fiscal 2020 spending measures have been enacted, and top appropriators aren’t particularly hopeful for resolution in the 10 legislative days left when both chambers are in session before Nov. 21, when current stopgap funding expires.

And unlike the 34-day shutdown that began last December, which affected about 40 percent of federal workers, a shutdown starting Nov. 22 would affect all Cabinet departments and congressional staff, just as they are about to receive their last paychecks before the holiday shopping season begins.

By contrast, last year’s shutdown didn’t begin until Dec. 22. The second-longest shutdown in history, a 21-day lapse, began Dec. 16, 1995. And in both instances, the Legislative Branch spending bill had already become law, sparing congressional staff.

That’s not the case this time. House employees could lose a week’s worth of November salary in their end-of-month Black Friday paychecks, if lawmakers don’t cut a deal before they leave town for the Thanksgiving recess.

Senate staff, who normally would be paid Dec. 5 for the last two weeks of November, could see their paychecks cut by more than half, and on Dec. 20 wouldn’t get paid at all if the shutdown persists.

Most federal agency employees would feel the pinch in their mid-December pay dates, typically Dec. 13 or Dec. 16. According to Office of Personnel Management shutdown guidance, payroll processing for pre-shutdown work is an “excepted” activity that continues during a shutdown.

 

Zardnok

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Would Trump ruin Christmas for millions of Federal workers to delay his inevitable impeachment? Yes, yes he would. I expect it.
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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What this sentence tells me is that Trump will absolutely use a government shutdown as leverage against the House to try to delay his impeachment.
I think he will try, but I doubt Schumer and Pelosi will be moved to concede anything.
 

SaintJ

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If he shuts down the government in a fit of pique over the impeachment process, he may as well start searching for jurisdictions that don't have extradition treaties with the U.S.

It would make him look guilty and thereby weak. The only thing he has going for him is this false projected id of power that appeals to the emotional core of his base, who feel powerless without him. They'll be moved by polls -- the more it looks like he's losing by increasing margins, the more likely they are to stay home this time, because there is no Evil Witch Hillary to defeat.

I'm fairly certain most of the Democrats in the House and their loyal staffs would plow on without pay anyway. And on stunts like this, this sort of stuff is right in Pelosi's wheelhouse and she will end up playing him like a fiddle.
 
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superchuck500

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Back on topic, another aspect of this year's fiscal situation is that it includes DOD. Last year, the Pentagon and armed forces were spared from the shutdown because a defense bill had already been passed.

NOT RULING IT OUT: President Trump is not committed to signing an extension of a stopgap continuing resolution, or C.R., which expires Nov. 21, which raises the possibility of a federal government shutdown one week before Thanksgiving.

Speaking to reporters before leaving New York yesterday, Trump said he wasn’t making any promises. “I wouldn’t commit to anything. It depends on what the negotiation is.”

The Pentagon is nervously watching the clock tick down on the stalled budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. With the House in recess this week, this leaves only eight legislative days during which to act before the current funding expires.

There are 12 appropriations bills that keep the various federal agencies funded. Unlike last year, when the Pentagon got its money on Oct 1, this year none of the 12 were passed on time.
 

Goatman Saint

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Trump better be really careful. Senators before all watch their own backs. They saw Trump getting booed at his last two appearances. His rallies even the highlights lack the enthusiasm and are cropped much closer than before. If Trump shuts down the government, with the public already favoring impeachment, it’s going to increase the pressure on them to split as trump isn’t going to be the benefit he was. If the elections today show gains for democrats, I’d say Trump is on incredibly thin ice, as I doubt Pelosi is moving forward without at least back door support from some republican senators.
 

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