Another friggin' mock draft...but with three scenarios. (1 Viewer)

Necrocajun

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After reading several threads on this board that speculated what our draft intentions are, I decided to chime in with my opinion. The way I see it, this draft could end up in three major outcomes. Keep in mind that, unless specified, I'm not going to make precise selections because your guess is as good as mind. Also, I'm not going to throw darts blindly at potential 2nd day picks. I'm just wasting everyone's time in doing so. Now that you read my disclaimer, we could: (The possibilities are endless, but I'm going with the main ones.)

A: Trade back to get more picks
This is probably my favorite option. To be honest with my opinion, if Dorsey, Ellis, J. Long aren't there (which they won't be), there really isn't any worthy selections that suit our needs that fit the value at the #10 selection. I'm not going to say "trade with Dallas and get their 2 #1's because that is never going to happen. But, I think a more reasonable trade would be to move back into the mid to late teens and get another 3rd rounder or even in the early twenties if we are lucky enough to get a 2nd rounder. I wouldn't want to move further back than early 20's because that's when value starts meeting our needs (picks 15 - the end of the end of the 3rd round is where we will find our value/needs). Of course, it would depend on another trade partner, but I'm sure if somebody like one of the OL, Mendenhall, Matt Ryan or another skill player drops to our position, there will likely be a team that leapfrogs another for that specific player. I feel that if we somehow get an extra 3rd or 2nd at the expense of moving a little back with our #10 pick, we can fill the remaining holes on defense. We won't have that "can't miss stud" like Ghoulston, Dorsey or Ellis, but we will have picked up several solid players in the draft that have a high chance to fill our team needs.

Traded down 1st rounder (pick 15 - 25): Defense BPA - K. Rivers, K. Phillips, D.R. Cromartie, M. Jenkins, A. Talib, L. McKelvin (sp?), D. Conner,

Our 2nd rounder: BPA DT - D. Moore, T. Laws. K. Balmar (sp?)

Our 3rd rounder: BPA OT - :idunno:

Our bonus 2nd/3rd - BPA for whatever need we didn't fulfill with previous picks. Whether this takes care of LB, S, CB, TE, DT, etc. This could also be used to snag a player like Forte if he somehow drops down.

Conclusion: Regardless of how Option A shakes down, we will pick up 4 solid (maybe not spectacular) players on Day One of the Draft that could translate to us having 4 starters. This scenario would best take care of our needs because we would end up with only a couple of holes in our starting roster at worst.


B: Trade up to get a higher quality pick.
This would be my second favorite option. Granted, the only reason I would want to move up would be for one of the marquee DTs. All Homerisms aside, the player I want most will be Dorsey. But I'm thinking that the Dirty Turds are going to pick him over Matt Ryan because of the slew of 2nds that they have that can be used for a QB. There is no way in hell that we would try to leapfrog Atlanta to pick Dorsey. I believe that we will have to do business with the Patriots if we want Ellis. I don't feel that switching spots with the Ravens will be quite good enough because the Bengals can trade with the Patriots if they want Ellis bad enough. It's no secret that both the Saints and the Bengals want to come away with one of the prized DTs. I'm only willing to give up a third rounder to move up for Dorsey/Ellis. We need our 2nd regardless in this scenario. If we can't outbid the Bengals (who have a one-position draft advantage to us)...let them have their prized DT and we can explore other options.

Seventh overall selection: Dorsey/Ellis

Our second rounder: BPA LB or CB - B. Flowers,C. Lofton,J. Mayo,A. Cason, etc.

Conclusion: We will be left with a few holes in our overall starting lineup, but man, that front 7 is vastly improved from any Saint's defense since the early 90's! I would be happy with this as we would immediately have a potent defense to closely match (but not overpower as a strength) our high-powered offense. This would make us a title contender following draft day.


C: Stay put to pick BPA.
Honestly, doing nothing is my least favorite scenario and I'll tell you why. As I've mentioned before, we need Defensive BPA in the first round and the value for our needs doesn't really match up at #10. Our stud DT diamonds won't be there at #10...short of a draft day miracle happening...and every other one of our needs is a reach at the tenth position, except for maybe OT. I won't be thrilled if we went OT, but I would understand. Just as long as we use our 2nd and 3rd on nothing but BPA defense. There are some solid CBs, DTs, and LBs to be had in the 2nd and 3rd and we can still shore up a bunch of our remaining 2 First Day picks.

With our Tenth Selection: BPA OT, LB, CB - J. Otah (sp?), R. Clady, K. Rivers, D.R. Cromartie, M. Jenkins, etc.

With our 2nd Rounder: BPA DT - T. Laws, D. Moore, K. Balmar

With our 3rd Rounder: BPA Defense - Fill in the blank...I'm too tired to speculate at this selection.

Conclusion: As I said before, this is my least favorite scenario. OT will be the only value for our needs at #10 and I really don't want to go that route. We would be reaching on defense for any other BPA on defense at #10, no matter who we take. I honestly feel that picks 10 -14 don't reflect enough value for us on our defensive needs. But if nothing else, we take what the draft gives us. We end up coming out of the draft more fortified regardless.

Feel free to dissect my analysis...:hihi: Thanks for your time reading this post.
 

kenny59715

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Hate to be the one to point this out but "Day One" of the draft only consists of the first 2 rounds now.
 

See Hard

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yea... they shortened it up so that the draft doesnt run into primetime. Rounds 1-2 on the first day and 3-7 on the second (all with shorter time limits for picks)
 
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Necrocajun

Necrocajun

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Ahh...that makes sense. I was getting my hopes up at first when I learned that we didn't have a 3rd round pick on the first day and thought that the Giants lowered their demands for Shockey. :idunno: Oh well. Good move by the NFL to shorten the time length of the picks. The draft can be a sleep fest between Saints picks.
 

duckjr78

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Great thread. My feeling is that option 2 is definatly better in the short term and 1 is more long term. I would bet this is exactly how the FO is looking at it as well. Excellant job explaining your logic and being concise.
 

waazup

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I would trade down only if we could get Kenny Phillips and one of the top corners (Aqib, Flowers, Cason).
 

kevison

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I couldn't agree more. However, IF Dorsey or Ellis are there at 10, you can bet your @&& that they will sprint up to the podium with the draft card.:sbob:
 

whiteshadowen

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I really believe that our #1 and # 3 will yield us one of the DT's, either Dorsey or Ellis. And I also beleive that Atlanta will not take Dorsey, but will end up with Jake Long.
 

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