Another reason Clinton wins (1 Viewer)

st dude

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I am not that political, but my partner is. He seems to be in the middle of a lot of elections, often acting as campaign mgr. It has give me an inside look at how savvy politicians are really organized. Elections are won with boots on the ground. It requires a massive effort to get your vote out and someone running every precinct.

This is where Clinton will swamp Trump. She has been a politician her whole life. Everything I read tells me her machine is running with thousands of volunteers in every state. Her campaign is organized with experienced pros who have been on her team since day one.

Trump is an amateur. He has had little stability throughout his campaign. His support among fellow Republicans, who have organizations in their states, is fractured.

Now he should not be underestimated. He did win the nomination over more experienced candidates. I just don't see it against Clinton. The Clintons have been in a lot of elections. Their experience in getting their vote out will win the day.
 

Galbreath34

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Honestly, of all the mixed issues with polls, the biggest is predicting who will turn that desire to vote when asked on the phone into actually going out to vote. For a while Trumpkins have held hope that the ashamed to say on the phone impulse masked people going to the polls, but that's been really rare historically.

What has happened a lot is people being all for it on the phone, even passionate, but not actually getting out there. People that have had someone locally come by and talk to them or that's been in their neighborhood have always been more likely to get out and vote. Places where there are shuttles to take older or poor people out to vote get those votes out and GOP or Democrats that do that well in some places get more of those votes cast.

At this point I'd still be very surprised to see Trump win. I wouldn't quite be shocked, but close.

Take a look at the map that it takes for him to hit 269 to 269:

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/0ng6n"><img src="http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/0ng6n.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="http://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/0ng6n">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

He would have to sweep: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, and North Carolina (or all of the states that have been considered up for grabs for the past few weeks). So to win he'd need to be perfect on those, he cannot miss one, plus he needs a surprise split in ME while holding serve in NE, or he has to win Colorado or another state that has been polling (and/or historically) very strongly Democrat.

Anything is possible, he could stumble and Michigan could surprisingly filp and he could be in, but odds are low.
 

DaveXA

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Screw the polls, I think Hillary will finish with 320+ EV. She will win Florida and she'll win all of the states currently within the margin of error. I honestly think this go around the polls are giving too much credit for Trump. He will not get more than 80% of the Republican vote. We prolly will know Hillary will win when the news outlets declares her the winner in Florida. Once Florida is done, we can all relax and know we don't have to worry about Trump as President.
 

SaintsJunkie

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Voting trump. Just wish he would focus on the economy not the stupid wall thing
 

mt15

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His economic policies don't really exist. Unless you count vague rah-rah statements about bringing jobs back without saying how he would be able to do it. (Trust me, it'll be great!)

His tax plan is "trickle down" on steroids, which is most of the reason middle class wages have been stagnant for decades. We have only just this year started to see middle class income make some small gains. So, yay, let's throw all that away so Trump and corporations can get a huuuge tax break. Unless you are part of the 0.5% voting for Trump flies in the face of what's in your best interest.

Trump doesn't care about abortion, he isn't a conservative. He certainly doesn't care about the Second Amendment. He's a con man who was born on third base and thinks he hit a home run (can't remember the source to credit that). He's pathologically unable to resist attacking the source of any imagined slight and doesn't care if he has to violate the Constitution to get his revenge.
 

billinms

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His economic policies don't really exist. Unless you count vague rah-rah statements about bringing jobs back without saying how he would be able to do it. (Trust me, it'll be great!)

His tax plan is "trickle down" on steroids, which is most of the reason middle class wages have been stagnant for decades. We have only just this year started to see middle class income make some small gains. So, yay, let's throw all that away so Trump and corporations can get a huuuge tax break. Unless you are part of the 0.5% voting for Trump flies in the face of what's in your best interest.

Trump doesn't care about abortion, he isn't a conservative. He certainly doesn't care about the Second Amendment. He's a con man who was born on third base and thinks he hit a home run (can't remember the source to credit that). He's pathologically unable to resist attacking the source of any imagined slight and doesn't care if he has to violate the Constitution to get his revenge.
I saw a guy today in a little rednecky town walking down the main drag wearing tactical gear, AR15 across his shoulder, waving a confederate flag, with a Trump bumper sticker on his back. That's a Trump voter. It sounds like I'm making it up but I'm not.
 

BobE

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I saw a guy today in a little rednecky town walking down the main drag wearing tactical gear, AR15 across his shoulder, waving a confederate flag, with a Trump bumper sticker on his back. That's a Trump voter. It sounds like I'm making it up but I'm not.
I would say you are correct but trust me when I tell you but I know a lot of people who are the polar opposite of what you describe voting for Trump.
 

mjcouvi

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It's old people, old republicans are a big block of voters, many of them will vote for Trump. I know them, unfortunately, they don't have much of a clue. Lots of holier than thou narcissists will vote for Hillary. It's a real contest for who can be worst. All we can hope for is that the worst comes out on top. If you can't count on good, then hope for some good entertainment.
 

Galbreath34

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Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout - CNNPolitics.com

How ironic would it be if the last nail in turning Florida, Georgia, Arizona or maybe even Texas was a doubling of Hispanic voter turnout after the first thing that propelled Trump to the lead in the primaries was saying Mexican immigrants were mostly rapists and criminals?

I wish the data broke it out by gender, because if it's mostly women too, it'd prove that you never ever want to piss off a Latina. A year later she'll still be coming after you.
 

saintmdterps

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His economic policies don't really exist. Unless you count vague rah-rah statements about bringing jobs back without saying how he would be able to do it. (Trust me, it'll be great!)

His tax plan is "trickle down" on steroids, which is most of the reason middle class wages have been stagnant for decades. We have only just this year started to see middle class income make some small gains. So, yay, let's throw all that away so Trump and corporations can get a huuuge tax break. Unless you are part of the 0.5% voting for Trump flies in the face of what's in your best interest.

Trump doesn't care about abortion, he isn't a conservative. He certainly doesn't care about the Second Amendment. He's a con man who was born on third base and thinks he hit a home run (can't remember the source to credit that). He's pathologically unable to resist attacking the source of any imagined slight and doesn't care if he has to violate the Constitution to get his revenge.
And his rhetoric about "locking up Hillary" is pure tinpot dictator blowhard nonsense. He is constitutionally unfit for the office of POTUS.

The fact that he has the level of support that he does is mute testament to how fed up people are with DC politics as usual. However, Trump is not the standard-bearer of change, but rather he IS the system he claims to despise.

His supporters have no idea of the reality Trump would conjure up for them, they really can't see past their hate of Hillary. Though there is much to dislike about Hillary, she is the best option in this sorry-*** election. I like both Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, but nether is ready to be president.

I'd almost like to see Trump win so this entire tired, worn-out, rotten crony capitalist system can completely collapse and we can start to rebuild an actual working democracy devoid of special interest bribery.
 

mt15

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There's the rub, though, I only see the cronyism getting worse if Trump is elected. He's benefited from that system his entire life, it's all he knows. Dismantling it would be disadvantageous to his own business interests and the one thing anyone should know about Trump is that he doesn't have an altruistic bone in his body. So, domestically I see only benefits for big businesses and the wealthy. In foreign affairs I see only calamity.
 

Saintshizzle

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His economic policies don't really exist. Unless you count vague rah-rah statements about bringing jobs back without saying how he would be able to do it. (Trust me, it'll be great!)

His tax plan is "trickle down" on steroids, which is most of the reason middle class wages have been stagnant for decades. We have only just this year started to see middle class income make some small gains. So, yay, let's throw all that away so Trump and corporations can get a huuuge tax break. Unless you are part of the 0.5% voting for Trump flies in the face of what's in your best interest.

Trump doesn't care about abortion, he isn't a conservative. He certainly doesn't care about the Second Amendment. He's a con man who was born on third base and thinks he hit a home run (can't remember the source to credit that). He's pathologically unable to resist attacking the source of any imagined slight and doesn't care if he has to violate the Constitution to get his revenge.
Basically, all of this. Good laydown, BTW, and many Americans have not been swayed by all of the drama. You can go and look at the numbers, Trump haven't broken 42% ever...that's his ceiling. Really, IMO, what Jim said two weeks ago is still valid...Hillary will be close to 400 when this is all done.

I will bump the maps post Monday morning, and spend more time with you guys on Tuesday, as we watch this unfold. Again, your opinion is basically that of ~65% of the country...and I totally expect to see that in the votes in 3 days.
 

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