***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (1 Viewer)

[primadox]

Ugh, maps and links will be forthcoming. 2020, enough already.

 

[efil4stnias]

Burrow is going to be really good. Has all the throws.

 

[efil4stnias]

Well crap wrong thread lol

 

[primadox]

Well crap wrong thread lol

Hey, we needed something to smile about!

 

[efil4stnias]

Hey, we needed something to smile about!

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[faceman]

The latest Ukmet. This is the model Wxman57 said performed the best with Sally. If it verifies,it won't be entering Texas,but
making a NE

 

[Bill]

The latest Ukmet. This is the model Wxman57 said performed the best with Sally. If it verifies, it won't be entering Texas, but making a NE

Hurricanes hate us.

 

[gboudx]

Slow moving tropical storm or hurricane likely over the NW Gulf of Mexico for several days

Prolonged period of coastal flooding and impacts along the TX coast is increasingly likely

Discussion:
TD 22 remains elongated from SW to NE this morning per satellite images with a large mass of deep convection located to the northeast of the surface circulation. There is a bit of southwesterly wind shear over the system as being imparted by an upper level trough over TX currently. Another USAF mission will be in the depression later today to determine what if any structural changes have occurred with the system.

Track:
There remains significant uncertainty with the track for TD 22 and changes in the track are likely.

TD 22 is moving toward the NNE and this motion is expected to continue today into Saturday bringing the depression northward over the west-central Gulf of Mexico as being directed by the trough of low pressure along the TX coast. However this trough weakens and lifts out early this weekend and is not strong enough to capture and swing TD 22 on NE into the central US Gulf states. Instead high pressure begins to build over TX and the southern US late Saturday and this blocks the northward movement of TD 22 and forces the system to turn westward. This westward motion will then continue for 1-2 days pushing the system toward the lower TX coast where it looks to stall. As the high pressure north of the system begins to shift east, TD 22 will begin to slowly move north or NE. There are a lot of moving parts ongoing with the steering flow which is going to be very weak and this is going to lead to very low confidence and changes in the forecast track over time.

The best course of action is to take this system one day at a time and adjust based on the changing forecast.

Intensity:
There is some weak wind shear over the system this morning and that appears to be displacing the convection to the northeast of the elongated center. This shear may weaken some as the depression drifts to the NNE today and Saturday allowing the depression to become a tropical storm. The depression is over very warm waters and any relaxing of the shear would likely result in a period of intensification. This is shown by several of the global models which bring the system to a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane in 2-3 days over the western Gulf of Mexico. By days 4-5 as the system stalls near the south TX coast, dry air behind a weak frontal passage over TX today may try and wrap into the western and southern sides of the system and this could result in some weakening.

While there is uncertainty in the intensity forecast…the main threat from TD 22 is likely to be the water (storm surge and rainfall) when compared to the wind.

Impacts:
Based on the current forecast track…and again there will be changes

Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will be developing along the upper TX coast later today and on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases. This will result in a favorable transport of sea water toward the coast. Additionally increasing winds of 20-35kts over our coastal waters this weekend will result in building seas into the 8-15 foot range. These large swells will begin to result in wave run-up along the coast. Based on the various factors water levels will begin rising on Saturday along the coast and reach into warning levels on Sunday. Current forecast shows at least 4.0-5.0 feet above MLLW (barnacle level) and could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft MLLW at several locations along the upper TX coast.

Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura.

Rainfall:
Squalls may begin to approach the coast on Sunday as deep tropical moisture begins to replace the dry air over TX. Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even high offshore lowering to 1-3 inches inland near College Station. Best estimate right now is for 3-5 inches over Harris County.

These rainfall amounts will likely change

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds may begin to arrive along the lower and middle TX coast by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE into coastal SE TX Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[tenordas]

Burrow is going to be really good. Has all the throws.

After hitting Cleveland last night, Hurricane Joe expected to make landfall in Philadelphia next Sunday...

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Hurricanes hate us.

i've dated enough to know that this sort of behavior is a bit more complicated than 'hate'

 

[faceman]

latest from storm2k


y wxman57 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:16 am

I was thinking that this reminds me of Edith in 1971, which bounced off NE Mexico then turned NE to track right over me in Lafayette, LA. Upper low steers it NNE next 36 hours, high builds in to the north and shoves it west toward (or into) TX Sun/Mon. Best time for hurricane strength is during the west movement. After Monday, trof digs down into TX and begins steering it NE, at which point it may suck in a good bit of dry air from Texas and weaken. I sure hope it just continues moving west into TX and dissipates by Tuesday, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_(1971)

By the way, I'm not sure if this will be Wilfred or Alpha. NHC may name the system by Africa Wilfred first. It may come down to when the next scatterometer pass hits it.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[St. Widge]

Sounds like Wilfred will stay out at sea. But, it does mean that TD-22 is likely to be Alpha.