Anti-Trump movement?

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https://news.vice.com/story/anti-trump-movement-just-had-its-first-big-election-test

Last November, Connecticut Democrat Greg Cava ran for a state Senate seat, garnering just 32 percent of ballots and losing by more votes — 17,000 — than he received. On Tuesday, he had the opportunity to run for the seat again in a special election. Once again, he lost.

And yet Cava’s campaign headquarters, located on the second floor of a dingy photo studio in Watertown, Connecticut, may very well be ground zero for the future of the Democratic Party.

“I see our loss as a beacon of hope,” Cava’s campaign manager, Aaron Schrag, said the morning after the polls closed. “People from all sides of the political aisle worked together on this campaign because they saw value in coming together for a common cause.”

Tuesday’s special election in Connecticut’s deeply red 32nd district — a Democrat has not held the state Senate seat for well over a century — took place after the Republican who originally beat Cava vacated the seat to take a different position. And though Cava lost again, early results show it was by only 1,800 votes. If he had won, it would have given Democrats control of the Connecticut Senate.

This could be good if it puts more seats in play. It'll force more catering to the voters than to the donors.
 

whodat79

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I wasn't able to read the article fully. Did they mention anything about voter turn out? If it was close to the same could be bad news for the 2018 seats up for reelection

No, but they talked about energized voting base like the tea party movement in Obama's first term and the Dem's move to take back the state and local level elections. It would be nice to see the numbers on turnout so we'd know if it was more people showing up or the same people just turning on the GOP.

Edit: Found this article...

http://ctmirror.org/2017/02/28/borer-keeps-115th-house-seat-in-democratic-hands/

After losing three Senate seats and eight House seats in November, despite Hillary Clinton’s carrying the state over Trump, Democrats were ready to celebrate the results of the special elections Tuesday as harbingers of better things to come in 2018.

“This was a resounding rejection of Donald Trump’s presidency, which is spiraling out of control,” said Geoff Luxenberg, the Democratic consultant who managed Cava’s campaign. “For this election to be that close, and for Democratic turnout to be double the 2008 special election for the same seat, speaks volumes about how frustrated people in Connecticut are with Donald Trump.”
 

Galbreath34

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I wasn't able to read the article fully. Did they mention anything about voter turn out? If it was close to the same could be bad news for the 2018 seats up for reelection
They don't but you could probably find it by searching by the names involved and "special election" if you needed the exact numbers.

Inferring it from an election night tweet in the article and the other numbers in the article, though, puts turnout in the special election at around 1/3 of the general election. It said Cava got 17,000 and lost by almost that much getting 32% of the vote, so probably 51,000+ in the general election total. It said he lost by only 1800 and cited the tweet whose text I copied below, which would mean around 18,000 total votes in the special election. That seems about what you'd expect that about 1/3 would care enough to vote in a special election compared to general election with POTUS on the slate it's actually probably high, which I guess Expatriates CSM article shows. It also across most of the country would be an election where I'd guess usually you'd expect about 20%+ better turnout for the GOP. In midterm elections the GOP generally holds more of its turnout that Democrats do, and special elections the tilt is even higher. I'm not sure if this indicates better turnout for Dems, changing sentiment of usual GOP voters or what. Too hard to do much more than guess.

GOP won the CT 32nd with a 67%-33% margin back in November. That will likely be closer to 55%-45% tonight. First Trump effect? Maybe.
 

whodat79

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No, but they talked about energized voting base like the tea party movement in Obama's first term and the Dem's move to take back the state and local level elections. It would be nice to see the numbers on turnout so we'd know if it was more people showing up or the same people just turning on the GOP.

Edit: Found this article...

Democrats win 2 of 3, keep control of General Assembly | The CT Mirror

2017 is Avery important year for both parties and Trump is the catalyst that will determine the outcome of the 2018 elections. If this is a sign of a rejuvenated democrat base or the republicans beginning to turn will be a good time for the left. I think it's still early to tell but by the end of year we will have a clear vision of how those elections will turn out.
 

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Well, it all depends on whether he gets reined in and decides to be an adult in the room. If he can actually start to act and speak like he apparently did before the joint session of Congress then this could change greatly. I didn't watch the speech myself, hence the apparently, but seems to be rather universal that he at least appeared more traditionally presidential and avoided the bizarre personal focus on numbers and self-perception.

He also despite several taunts that it's coming next week has refrained from trying again at the failed Muslim ban. So, maybe he can stop trying to throw red meat to his base and get on with actual governance. Honestly, you can check and even before the results were clear on election night I was hoping for this kind of turn and willing to give room for hope that he'd govern other than he ran. He's let that hope down enough that my hopes are minimal at best that he'll turn a new leaf. It certainly would be better for the country if he did, but I can't see him going more than a week or two before there are new tantrums about numbers and persecution in the news and why people lie about the nation being concerned, etc etc etc.

I mean things have been so insane and he's done so many dangerous things that there's barely been much coverage or discussion of the ethical problem of him filing for the 2020 election before the end of January and having raised over 7,000,000 by the first week of February and holding what he's calling campaign rallies already to abuse funds and laws that are different for campaigns and governing.
 
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Well, it all depends on whether he gets reined in and decides to be an adult in the room. If he can actually start to act and speak like he apparently did before the joint session of Congress then this could change greatly. I didn't watch the speech myself, hence the apparently, but seems to be rather universal that he at least appeared more traditionally presidential and avoided the bizarre personal focus on numbers and self-perception.

He also despite several taunts that it's coming next week has refrained from trying again at the failed Muslim ban. So, maybe he can stop trying to throw red meat to his base and get on with actual governance. Honestly, you can check and even before the results were clear on election night I was hoping for this kind of turn and willing to give room for hope that he'd govern other than he ran. He's let that hope down enough that my hopes are minimal at best that he'll turn a new leaf. It certainly would be better for the country if he did, but I can't see him going more than a week or two before there are new tantrums about numbers and persecution in the news and why people lie about the nation being concerned, etc etc etc.

I mean things have been so insane and he's done so many dangerous things that there's barely been much coverage or discussion of the ethical problem of him filing for the 2020 election before the end of January and having raised over 7,000,000 by the first week of February and holding what he's calling campaign rallies already to abuse funds and laws that are different for campaigns and governing.

I agree, and I wonder how much of this is the Russian connection stuff that's coming out. It's as if someone finally got to him and he knows he's looking at some serious repercussions if he doesn't start towing the party line. It remains to be seen if it holds, but he's a changed man recently. That doesn't happen accidentally.
 

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I agree, and I wonder how much of this is the Russian connection stuff that's coming out. It's as if someone finally got to him and he knows he's looking at some serious repercussions if he doesn't start towing the party line. It remains to be seen if it holds, but he's a changed man recently. That doesn't happen accidentally.

I agree if he continues to act and appear Presidential like the address to congress it will be interesting. If the Russia issues continues to be front page news and he isn't cleared or a special prosecutor looking into the matter it could be a bad night for 2018 elections. The Russia scandal may be just like the Hillary server issues that kept enough doubt that changed people's minds or got them energized to get to the polls. I don't think we will have any shortage of topics to discuss
 

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Give it a rest already. He won. He's President. Republicans control the government. This board is constantly grabbing at straws.
 

whodat79

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Give it a rest already. He won. He's President. Republicans control the government. This board is constantly grabbing at straws.

As a Trump supporter myself it is a little early to know about this for sure. History serves as a reminder this is similar to what was called the tea party movement. Small wins in areas that were strong blue and eventually little drops of red appeared eventually giving majority to the republicans. Both the guys in this discussion have stated it's early and it depends on how the Trump presidency goes over the next couple months. But both of us better believe if this Russia issues doesn't go away it will be big topics in the 2018 elections and that could be bad. I believe Trump is learning and be instructed to be more professional and Presidential and that could be very good for us
 

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https://news.vice.com/story/anti-trump-movement-just-had-its-first-big-election-test



This could be good if it puts more seats in play. It'll force more catering to the voters than to the donors.

Give it a rest already. He won. He's President. Republicans control the government. This board is constantly grabbing at straws.

Wait, we shouldn't discuss the possibilities of a shakeup in the midterm elections because Trump won? Ok then. Thanks for your exceptional insight.

Here's another story similar to the OP's:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/tea-party-protests-town-hall-forums-republicans-trump-resistance-indivisible-214850
 

saintmdterps

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Well, it all depends on whether he gets reined in and decides to be an adult in the room. If he can actually start to act and speak like he apparently did before the joint session of Congress then this could change greatly. I didn't watch the speech myself, hence the apparently, but seems to be rather universal that he at least appeared more traditionally presidential and avoided the bizarre personal focus on numbers and self-perception.

He also despite several taunts that it's coming next week has refrained from trying again at the failed Muslim ban. So, maybe he can stop trying to throw red meat to his base and get on with actual governance. Honestly, you can check and even before the results were clear on election night I was hoping for this kind of turn and willing to give room for hope that he'd govern other than he ran. He's let that hope down enough that my hopes are minimal at best that he'll turn a new leaf. It certainly would be better for the country if he did, but I can't see him going more than a week or two before there are new tantrums about numbers and persecution in the news and why people lie about the nation being concerned, etc etc etc.

I mean things have been so insane and he's done so many dangerous things that there's barely been much coverage or discussion of the ethical problem of him filing for the 2020 election before the end of January and having raised over 7,000,000 by the first week of February and holding what he's calling campaign rallies already to abuse funds and laws that are different for campaigns and governing.

Trump can spend all his time campaigning and flying to Mar-a-lago if he wants, Bannon and Pence are likely running the show now. Trump is only a figurehead, a mouthpiece to keep the fanbase riled up.
 

Taurus

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Give it a rest already. He won. He's President. Republicans control the government. This board is constantly grabbing at straws.

Having your confidence shaken that Cheeto Jesus isn't really your Savior?
 

FBU4you

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Losing by 10 points is still losing. As of right now the democrats don't have any good candidates to run against Trump in 2020. They need to do some serious grooming for 2024.
 

Galbreath34

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8% fewer white voters replaced by minority voters in 2020. The GOP can't win without changing, period. Enjoy the last "Wheee, yehaww my fellow whites ain't this fun" ride down on the rollercoaster.

If you think Trump's election is some new formula or some lasting coalition you're in for a rude surprise. I mean, enjoy the short ride, but don't set yourself up for too much pain.
 

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