Anyone heard of the Aikman Efficiency Rating? (1 Viewer)

SebaSaint

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I started following Troy Aikman on twitter for some unknown reason and he posted his Aikman Efficiency Ratings so I took a gander:

Aikman Efficiency Ratings through week 2:

Offense

Aik NFL Team AER
1 3 Ravens (a) 104.9
2 1 Saints (n) 102.7
3 2 Cowboys (n) 101.4
4 4 Buccaneers (n) 93.2
5 27 Vikings (n) 88.6
6 12 Colts (a) 84.0
7 13 Jets (a) 82.5
8 8 Broncos (a) 82.2
9 26 49ers (n) 82.0
10 21 Bengals (a) 81.8
11 9 Patriots (a) 80.9
12 14 Bills (a) 80.3
13 18 Falcons (n) 79.8
14 17 Dolphins (a) 79.6
15 15 Cardinals (n) 79.5
16 28 Packers (n) 76.6
17 7 Titans (a) 76.3
18 23 Texans (a) 76.2
19 11 Seahawks (n) 75.3
20 5 Chargers (a) 74.5
21 24 Jaguars (a) 74.3
22 10 Eagles (n) 73.8
23 29 Raiders (a) 73.5
24 6 Giants (n) 71.7
25 25 Chiefs (a) 71.1
26 19 Redskins (n) 68.6
27 20 Bears (n) 66.5
28 16 Steelers (a) 66.3
29 30 Lions (n) 61.4
30 22 Panthers (n) 58.2
31 32 Browns (a) 57.6
32 31 Rams (n) 54.5

NFL Average 77.5




Defense

Aik NFL Team AER
1 2 Broncos (a) 98.3
2 1 Jets (a) 94.4
3 21 Saints (n) 90.2
4 12 Seahawks (n) 89.3
5 7 49ers (n) 85.3
6 10 Redskins (n) 84.7
7 4 Vikings (n) 82.7
8 8 Eagles (n) 82.4
9 17 Ravens (a) 78.8
10 22 Falcons (n) 78.6
11 9 Steelers (a) 78.1
12 6 Cardinals (n) 77.8
13 23 Raiders (a) 77.0
14 29 Rams (n) 76.3
15 5 Bears (n) 75.9
16 19 Packers (n) 75.3
17 26 Titans (a) 75.0
18 11 Bengals (a) 72.5
19 3 Patriots (a) 71.2
20 14 Dolphins (a) 70.1
21 24 Jaguars (a) 69.1
22 20 Chargers (a) 65.1
23 31 Buccaneers (n) 63.6
24 28 Bills (a) 63.4
25 15 Panthers (n) 62.3
26 16 Giants (n) 60.6
27 30 Cowboys (n) 60.6
28 13 Colts (a) 59.4
29 27 Lions (n) 58.8
30 25 Browns (a) 54.9
31 32 Texans (a) 53.0
32 18 Chiefs (a) 52.3

NFL Average 72.5

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/i3qk

I like where he has the Saints, especially on defense so I searched to find out how these numbers are broken down and the only place I could find the breakdown was on a 49er forum, strangely enough. Here is the breakdown:

Gotta give him credit, because his ratings on how he ranks teams are based on a lot more statistics that MATTER outside of just "yards per game" gained and allowed, offensively or defensively. It's a lot more telling of the story than just points per game scored/allowed. Nice system. Check it out.


Aikman Efficiency Ratings Formula
"The Aikman Efficiency Ratings measure offensive and defensive performance using a combination of seven key statistics identified by Troy, and then measured against league norms (and extremes) established over the last 10 years. An offense or defense performing exactly at league norms in all categories will achieve a score of 75. The better the offense or defense, the higher the score on either scale.

It will take a truly exceptional unit to score more than 90 during an entire season on either the offensive or defensive scale. Higher scores are possible in individual games.

In 2005, AER scores ranged on offense from 92.6 (Seattle) to 60.9 (San Francisco) and on defense from 89.3 (Chicago) to 61.1 (Houston). The seven categories measured are:

Adjusted Points (20%) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
Turnovers (20%)
Red Zone Efficiency (20%) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (see below)
Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush (10% of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10% of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement -- divided into Total First Downs (10% of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10% of total)
Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3). "

http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showthread.php?t=7420

The rankings if valid, show that the Saints have a top ranked Offense paired with a top ranked Defense with regard to our AER.
 

bergeaux

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Very interesting... It sounds like a decent way to gauge offenses and defenses. Also good if we're doing that well? :) However, the BRONCOS are #1 in defense by this ranking... ????

I guess you could just say Cincy and Cleveland and settle that discussion... I guess?
 

jayd265

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sweet! sounds better than "since we gave up over 350 passing yards to kolb our passing defense must suck" or "since teams are behind they cant run the ball anymore thus showing why we have a top 5 rush defense"
 
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SebaSaint

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This was his week 17 ranking from last year:

aer08wk17combined1.png


Looks pretty accurate to me and is better than Prisco's feelings... not sure how Prisco and the like come up with their rankings (other than just straight up gut instincts).
 

crosswatt

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Troy Aikman is sooooo much better as an analyst than people give him credit for....
 

SWJJ

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Now how can I use this to help me make/win bets?
 

mmule

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Very interesting... It sounds like a decent way to gauge offenses and defenses. Also good if we're doing that well? :) However, the BRONCOS are #1 in defense by this ranking... ????

I guess you could just say Cincy and Cleveland and settle that discussion... I guess?

Yep, they've given up only 13 points in two games. Technically that's tops in the league. They can't help it that that's their schedule.
 

GameBreaker

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How is that accurate at all?

Look at W-L and they don't correlate to his rankings.
 
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SebaSaint

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How is that accurate at all?

Look at W-L and they don't correlate to his rankings.

His rankings are based strictly on offensive and defensive efficiency. They seem accurate to me as far as Power Rankings are concerned. We all know that Power Rankings are to be taken with a grain of salt and that it all comes down to wins and losses to determine a champion. So if you wanted to see who has the best record, of course you would never look at a power ranking, you look at the standings.

Does this not make sense to you? If records were the end all be all of power rankings, why are the 1-1 Steelers higher ranked than the 2-0 Saints on some of the rankings... your question doesn't make any sense.
 

RussTKD

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How is that accurate at all?

Look at W-L and they don't correlate to his rankings.
Actually, yea, they kinda do. We lost a couple games last year on bad special teams play that would have put us right in line with W/L and AER. And Denver won a couple games on botched calls that would have put them in line as well.

Even with all the statistics in the world, there's a certain element of luck that goes into the NFL, especially with such a short season compared to baseball and basketball. If you play 80-160 games statistical trends will prove truer than the anomalies.
 

davidstvz

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This is reasonable. It doesn't take into account strength of schedule, but after 17 games I think last year's rating is pretty reasonable. Also, there is no rule saying that the combined score is meaningful (i.e. a 90 defense might be worth more than a 90 offense to winning).

Also it doesn't take into account special teams. Again, interesting and reasonable but of course not perfect.
 

Jhoniten

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May not agree with his analyst performance but it is hard to find fault with his efficiency ratings. Looking at the way it is figured, it seems to be fairly accurate with how teams actually perform. All that and I like where we ended up, although I think I need to take a closer look at how the Baltimore games have gone.
 

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