Are There Really 5 Franchise QBs in This Year's Draft? (2 Viewers)

Ihartsaints

Subscribing Member
VIP Subscribing Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2020
Messages
773
Reaction score
1,260
Location
Washington DC
Offline
Sticky Post
Let's face it, 2020 was a strange year. Games schedules were a mess and prospects played only a few games. Yet, with so many teams in the market are we overvaluing the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and even 6th picks?

It just seems unlikely that this year of all years will produce 5 potentially franchise QBs. I think desperation is causing a run on sales of rose-colored glasses.

This article sort of supports my concern.


There is also little agreement among the various lists on how to rank the 2021 Draft QBs.

CBS Sports
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Zach Wilson
  3. Justin Fields
  4. Trey Lance
  5. Mac Jones
  6. Davis Mills
  7. Kyle Trask
Walter Football
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Zach Wilson
  3. Justin Fields
  4. Trey Lance
  5. Mac Jones
  6. Kyle Trask
LSU Tiger Wire
  1. Zach Wilson
  2. Trevor Lawrence
  3. Justin Fields
  4. Trey Lance
  5. Mac Jones
  6. Kellen Mond
  7. Jamie Newman
  8. Ian Book
  9. Davis Mills
  10. Sam Ehlinger
  11. Kyle Trask
Bleacher Report
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Justin Fields
  3. Trey Lance
  4. Mac Jones
  5. Kyle Trask
  6. Zach Wilson
  7. Kellen Mond
  8. Jamie Newman
  9. Brock Purdy
  10. Sam Ehlinger
Sporting News
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Justin Fields
  3. Zach Wilson
  4. Trey Lance
  5. Mac Jones
  6. Kyle Trask
Pro Football Focus
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Justin Fields
  3. Zach Wilson
  4. Trey Lance
  5. Kyle Trask
  6. Mac Jones
  7. Jamie Newman
  8. Shane Buechele
  9. Desmond Ridder
  10. Kenny Pickett
ESPN Sports
  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Zach Wilson
  3. Trey Lance
  4. Justin Fields
  5. Mac Jones
  6. Kellen Mond
  7. Kyle Trask
  8. Davis Mills
  9. Jamie Newman
  10. Ian Brock
 

Complex Kid

Most things I worry about Never happen anyway
Joined
Nov 14, 2002
Messages
12,299
Reaction score
20,181
Age
41
Location
Lake Charles, LA
Offline
I think 3 is the most to hit in one year in the first round. For example, you have the 2018 class with Baker, Josh, and Lamar and 2004 with Eli, Philip, and Ben.
Add 1983 to that list.

1617816058654.png

3 Hall of Famers and another 2 Time Pro Bowler. Not too shabby.
 

Dillonsp

Most Valuable Poster
Joined
Apr 18, 2015
Messages
315
Reaction score
537
Location
LA
Offline
A lot of draft rankings only have 1 or two QBs in the top 10. Yet, it seems likely that 3 or 4 QBs will go in the first 4 picks. What happened to "pick the best player still on the board"?

Just seems to me that people have gone QB nuts this draft
The potential of a great QB is there for 6 QBs, and QB is the most important position in football. Will all 6 end up franchise QBs? Most likely not, but that wont and shouldn’t stop teams from finding out which potential will pan out. To get a highly coveted QB, you have to draft him early
 

guillermo

Visible minority
Staff member
Super Moderator
Joined
Aug 8, 1997
Messages
12,548
Reaction score
13,013
Age
55
Offline
To understand if 5 rookie quarterbacks will turn to franchise players, we should evaluate where they are going to land:

1) Jacksonville, that is a maybe. They have an average to above average offensive line, a good running back and not much outside. I think Darrin Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer are capable to build a good system around Lawrence.

2) Jets. Right now, not likely. They need everything, specially time, and time is a factor against a rookie taking command. Forget about the supporting cast and the system. What the team (and quarterback) needs first is to learn to win games. The rookie drafted by New York may have the toughest situation to develop.

3) San Francisco, here is obviously the best situation for a rookie, great coach, great support cast, great system. If the rookie can't develop to a franchise player, it's basically his fault.

4) Atlanta. Another good situation. A chance to learn behind a solid quarterback, a system developed by an offensive mind who plays a basic, solid system, based on the run game.

5) Detroit. It may take time here, but this can be a good system for a rookie, since they will based his scheme on the run game. Problem is the lack of weapons at the outside and they need a better offensive line.

6) Denver, they certainly have good young weapons in the outside, a solid runner and Pat Shurmur runs a quarterback friendly offence. They need to reinforce the offensive line, but with time, it can be a promising situation.

The next part will be to fit the quarterback with the team, we are almost sure on Lawrence to the jaguars, Wilson to the jets, but after that, everything right now is posturing.

I have no doubts Trevor Lawrence will become a franchise quarterback if he goes to San Francisco, I have my doubts he will if he goes to Jacksonville, and frankly, and it will take more time for him to produce if he is drafted by the Jets. The situation can determine the career of a player.

A good discussion to continue after the draft.
 
Last edited:

ilvdsnts

Pro-Bowler
Joined
Oct 29, 2009
Messages
2,752
Reaction score
2,827
Age
50
Location
New Orleans, LA
Offline
Its fine by me. I wouldn’t mind seeing the first 27 picks be QBs, then we would have our pick of the best CB/LB/DL we want. The more QBs picked before us the better because I think our QB situation is above average and with another awesome D we’ll be fine.
 

Booker

All-Pro
Joined
Aug 27, 2006
Messages
3,548
Reaction score
6,844
Age
46
Location
Littleton, CO
Offline
Yeah, where you go is such a huge factor. It's much more likely that a bad franchise will bring down a good prospect than the rookie will be able to come in and turn a bad franchise around. So if there end up being four or five top ten quarterbacks that's one thing that most will have working against them in that they'll be going to bad teams.

Then you factor in the odds that probably at least one will draw the bad luck card and end up with injury issues that'll derail his career, and then the odds that at least one probably just isn't going to be able to adjust to the change in the speed of the game and level of competition, regardless of where he gets drafted.

It's certainly possible that this class could be an exception, and that Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Fields and Lance all hit. But more likely, by the time their rookie contracts expire you'll have a couple of them starting with the same team, a couple that didn't get a second contract with the team that drafted them but are still in the league, and another that's done with the NFL. The thing is you just don't know which ones will be which.
 

bobad

Son of Adam
VIP Contributor
Joined
Sep 21, 2006
Messages
25,127
Reaction score
17,945
Location
Saints Country
Offline
Well, there are about 10 prospects. Most years that usually means 2 or 3 will turn out to be solid starters.
 

Goatman Saint

Subscribing Member
Platinum VIP Contributor
Joined
Apr 18, 1999
Messages
22,567
Reaction score
20,734
Age
49
Location
Between here and there
Offline
The problem is usually the teams drafting for QBs need them because they consistently screw them up. Cleveland, New York, and the like. A QB drafted there is just going to an early death. Quality coaches choose the guy who fits them where they can get them and coach them up. Yes Mahomes is a tremendous QB. But if he was drafted by the Jets?

so, I really believe it depends so much more on where they end up than anything else.
 

Ken-Bob

Super Forum Fanatic
Joined
May 10, 1997
Messages
7,841
Reaction score
1,887
Age
62
Offline
I think the closest to a sure fire hit is Wilson.
Lawrence's hype outweighs his talent, but he still has lots of talent (just too much hype).
Mac Jones is intriguing but will only make it if he's on the right team with the right coach

-- Note the right team right coach thing is huge all around and every other player could be a franchise QB IF they end up in the right spot - certainly, the top three could be busts and out of the league if they go to the wrong place. Keeping that in mind, look at it based on a recent mock:

Lawrence to the Jaguars - Probably a 60% better chance of greatness
Wilson to the Jets - 50/50 at best, not because of Wilson, but because it's the Jets
Jones to the Niners - 60% or better, IMO
Fields to the Patriots - 60%
Lance to the Broncos - 20%
David Mills to the Bucs - 75% (sits and learns behind Brady for a year then takes the reins for a very good QB coach - the downside - Arians usually likes older QBs so probably not).

But consider any of above and put them on the Saints with Payton - Bump the probability of success by at least 10%
 

Fiyo

Resident Lurker
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Messages
1,036
Reaction score
227
Age
57
Offline
This is obviously a bigger than usual crop of potential solid QBs ... but having any of them them (Sunshine included) truly become solid in the NFL is a whole other story ... kinda like a Crap shoot
 

No2DC

Hall-of-Famer
VIP Contributor
Joined
Feb 24, 2010
Messages
5,676
Reaction score
6,429
Age
46
Offline
Elway, Eli, Ben, and Mahomes are the only QBs I think drafted in the 1st to win a ring with the team that drafted them. Drafting a QB is a huge crapshoot.
 

Booker

All-Pro
Joined
Aug 27, 2006
Messages
3,548
Reaction score
6,844
Age
46
Location
Littleton, CO
Offline
Elway, Eli, Ben, and Mahomes are the only QBs I think drafted in the 1st to win a ring with the team that drafted them. Drafting a QB is a huge crapshoot.
They were the only teams they ever played for, but Elway and Eli weren’t drafted by the Broncos and Giants (Colts and Chargers, respectively).
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: Dre

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 2)

 

New Orleans Saints Twitter Feed

 

Headlines

Top Bottom