Are There Really 5 Franchise QBs in This Year's Draft? (1 Viewer)

[Ihartsaints]

Let's face it, 2020 was a strange year. Games schedules were a mess and prospects played only a few games. Yet, with so many teams in the market are we overvaluing the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and even 6th picks?

It just seems unlikely that this year of all years will produce 5 potentially franchise QBs. I think desperation is causing a run on sales of rose-colored glasses.

This article sort of supports my concern.

No QBs drafted in first round from 2009-16 are set to be on original team in 2021

There were 22 quarterbacks drafted in the first round between the 2009 and 2016 seasons and all of them came with hopes that they'd lead their teams for years to come.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

There is also little agreement among the various lists on how to rank the 2021 Draft QBs.

CBS Sports

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Zach Wilson
3. Justin Fields
4. Trey Lance
5. Mac Jones
6. Davis Mills
7. Kyle Trask

Walter Football

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Zach Wilson
3. Justin Fields
4. Trey Lance
5. Mac Jones
6. Kyle Trask

LSU Tiger Wire

1. Zach Wilson
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Justin Fields
4. Trey Lance
5. Mac Jones
6. Kellen Mond
7. Jamie Newman
8. Ian Book
9. Davis Mills
10. Sam Ehlinger
11. Kyle Trask

Bleacher Report

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Trey Lance
4. Mac Jones
5. Kyle Trask
6. Zach Wilson
7. Kellen Mond
8. Jamie Newman
9. Brock Purdy
10. Sam Ehlinger

Sporting News

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Zach Wilson
4. Trey Lance
5. Mac Jones
6. Kyle Trask

Pro Football Focus

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Zach Wilson
4. Trey Lance
5. Kyle Trask
6. Mac Jones
7. Jamie Newman
8. Shane Buechele
9. Desmond Ridder
10. Kenny Pickett

ESPN Sports

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Zach Wilson
3. Trey Lance
4. Justin Fields
5. Mac Jones
6. Kellen Mond
7. Kyle Trask
8. Davis Mills
9. Jamie Newman
10. Ian Brock

 

[DerrickB]

Here's mine.

Strike 7 Sports

Trevor Lawrence
Zach Wilson
Justin Fields
Trey Lance
Mac Jones

Projects/Possible Sleepers
Kyle Trask
Sam Ehlinger
Kellon Mond
Davis Mills
Brady White

It's too early to tell who's franchise QB. They haven't seen the field yet. It's just a sign of the time now. Teams are no longer patient with young QBs.

 

[baarbogast]

It Depends on who drafts them. If Atlanta got a QB, Ryan could mentor him. If Denver gets a QB I think he is screwed.

 

[Dillonsp]

Short answer: Not likely. But, this draft has multiple QBs who could potentially be a great QB in the NFL. Franchise QBs are rare.

Long answer: 5 franchise QBs in any draft is unlikely. Not just this year. Just like any other position, teams are trying to find players who will pan out while media hypes guys. The draft is full of unknowns. Always has been and always will be. The reason some QBs, or any position for that matter, are ranked higher pre-draft is not based solely on who they think can make the transition. Other factors are also in play: injury history, higher upside, potentially higher floor, might have higher upside but it was shown against poor level of competition, arm strength may bump a guy above someone who is more accurate, a better traditional QB may be ranked below someone who may not be the most accurate but has speed and is a dual threat, etc. Way too many unknowns, especially in the transition between college and NFL and different systems to declare what will happen and who will actually be good, much less declare the rare find of a franchise QB. Also, a lot of media rankings put too much emphasis a player's upside, imo, and ignore the "floor" or bust potential

 

[1987]

I don’t think there will be 5 franchise QBs. Maybe 1 or 2...maybe. I think the rest could be good or serviceable. It would be odd for all of them to really turn out to be franchise types. 85 was the best year for QBs taken in the first round in one draft and even then, not all were franchise guys.

 

[Taker597]

Are we talking about franchise caliber prospects ? It's really only two maybe three depending how much you value competition of opponents.

The rest are either raw, untested, or with limited athleticism.

If we talking about if these players can turn to be franchise players... I want to be optimistic and say 3.

You can look back at the most successful QBs of the past 4 years.

Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
Kyler Murray
Justin Hebert

Out of 15 players... This is it. Just 6. If I include 2015 and 2016... It would plummet the odds of finding a franchise QB. So, I'm being very optimistic that 3 will happen in one year. 2 will probably be the number.

Players with elite arm talent and athleticism has been more successful than stat junkies.

The group of players that has the best chance would be...

Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Trey Lance
Zach Wilson

Which of the four? I'd like to see their landing spot first. Any combination of Jets, Jaguars, or etc doesn't give me a hopeful outlook.

 

[No2DC]

I think 3 is the most to hit in one year in the first round. For example, you have the 2018 class with Baker, Josh, and Lamar and 2004 with Eli, Philip, and Ben.

 

[Summed7]

theringer did something regarding 1st round QB hits and I can't remember exact details, but it's basically 50/50 as to if you'll get a successful QB. So no, statistically there shouldn't be 5, but I've seen stranger things happen. Add to it that it is getting easier and easier to play QB at an effective level and college QBs are having success quicker than ever and how much an advantage it is to have a good young cheap QB, this is a trend that's going to absolutely continue to happen more and more.

I see a future where every draft is 1-x where x is the # of QB's with the potential to be great. I also see the value of those picks going up and up. If I were a GM, I would be targeting future first at all times.

 

[J.T.]

Of the top four chosen, one will almost for certain be a bust. It is very possible that two will bust, possibly three. Of the top six QB's chosen, if two are actual true franchise QB's in five years, that would be about what you would expect. The fact is that QB is the most important position on the team and the bust rate is between 30-50% for top prospects. A few others become starters, but are not very good. True "franchise" type of players are about 25-35%.

The Falcons are kind of stuck with Ryan because of the cap hit, but if they stay at #4 and one of their QB's who they rate as a "franchise" guy is on the board, they would be crazy not to take him.

 

[dutar76]

It could very well turn out there's 3, but not the "top" 3.

example:
1. Wilson
2. Lance
3. Trask

I'm not sold on Lawrence. Part of the reason is where he'll be going. (Jax) I mean, if Tom Brady would've gone to Cleveland all those years ago, what would he have become? Doubtful he'd be in any GOAT discussions.

Fields could go either way. It's looking like he'll be a 49er. I love the situation more than the player with him.

Wilson, I just feel sorry for. I think he's the best QB in this class, but will likely end up in New Jersey.

Lance will likely go to a middle-ish team. Possibly redshirt behind a bridge QB for a year. If so, he has a chance to be something.

Trask and Jones both have a decent chance of sliding past all the hopeless teams, and landing with teams built to win now, who have a QB they can learn from. That's a good situation for where they're at as players. Heck, even if they don't develop into franchise guys, in the right situation they can have long careers and make a ton of money as back-ups.

In the end... who knows. But history says there won't be more than one or two superstars in this class. Possibly 3 or 4 long term starters of the tier 2 / tier 3 variety.

 

[tomwaits]

2012 Draft had some good QBs (Pro Bowlers at least one time)

Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck
Ryan Tannehill
Robert Griffin
Kirk Cousins
Nick Foles

Also found this link that looks more at HOFers.
Bleacher Report link

Not sure why the link is failing as media...

 

[jasonsw]

im going to say this years draft has 3 QBs possibly a 4th if Mac Jones goes to a good team. The three i think will be good are Lance Wilson and Lawrence. Mac Jones could do well on a team like N.O that has a good line, one of the best R.Bs and good offensive weapons.

Fields i think will bust. For over 10 years now Ohio State QBs have produced really well in college only to fizzle in the NFL. I think these QBs are more of a product of the system rather than actual QB talents and smarts.

Lets face it other than Ohio state and Penn State being decent, the Big 10 stinks. Every week Ohio State is the Superior Team in all phases. That will help any college QB look good.

I know some will say what about Burrow. Well he played in the toughest conference by far in college football, almost everyone he faced on defense will play in the NFL at least as a backup if not starter. He also didnt merely just beat the elite teams that year but torched them his senior year. Only Florida made things somewhat hard on him that year.

 

[Ihartsaints]

A lot of draft rankings only have 1 or two QBs in the top 10. Yet, it seems likely that 3 or 4 QBs will go in the first 4 picks. What happened to "pick the best player still on the board"?

Just seems to me that people have gone QB nuts this draft

 

[Ihartsaints]

If Atlanta is willing to trade the fourth pick maybe they came to the same conclusion I have, The fourth QB in the draft has been overhyped.

It looks like we can add KJ Costello to this of QBs the Saints might consider in later rounds. Kyle Trask being the other.

 

[St. Widge]

A lot of draft rankings only have 1 or two QBs in the top 10. Yet, it seems likely that 3 or 4 QBs will go in the first 4 picks. What happened to "pick the best player still on the board"?

Just seems to me that people have gone QB nuts this draft

Teams go QB nuts in every draft. Every year QBs climb up the draft rankings as the draft gets closer. QB is the most important position on a team so teams will reach to get one and it may be the only position that it makes sense to reach for if you find your guy.

As a result, the top 5 QBs in every draft almost always go higher than you would have expected at the end of a college season. This year is really no different. The media, teams, and fans have identified what they think are the top 4 or 5 guys and those guys will go high. Likely 2 will be good (maybe one great) and the rest will range from above average to below average. With a possible total bust thrown in. Then you will likely have one of the "other" guys who don't get picked high that will turn out to be a good player. The key is being the team smart enough to figure out which of the 2 or 3 guys that will be good and which are the 3 to 6 guys that won't.