Are There Really 5 Franchise QBs in This Year's Draft? (1 Viewer)

Absolutely not. History says at least two fo them will be busts.

I know some of you don't like Florio at Profootball talk but here is a good article.


 
A lot of draft rankings only have 1 or two QBs in the top 10. Yet, it seems likely that 3 or 4 QBs will go in the first 4 picks. What happened to "pick the best player still on the board"?

Just seems to me that people have gone QB nuts this draft
The potential of a great QB is there for 6 QBs, and QB is the most important position in football. Will all 6 end up franchise QBs? Most likely not, but that wont and shouldn’t stop teams from finding out which potential will pan out. To get a highly coveted QB, you have to draft him early
 
To understand if 5 rookie quarterbacks will turn to franchise players, we should evaluate where they are going to land:

1) Jacksonville, that is a maybe. They have an average to above average offensive line, a good running back and not much outside. I think Darrin Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer are capable to build a good system around Lawrence.

2) Jets. Right now, not likely. They need everything, specially time, and time is a factor against a rookie taking command. Forget about the supporting cast and the system. What the team (and quarterback) needs first is to learn to win games. The rookie drafted by New York may have the toughest situation to develop.

3) San Francisco, here is obviously the best situation for a rookie, great coach, great support cast, great system. If the rookie can't develop to a franchise player, it's basically his fault.

4) Atlanta. Another good situation. A chance to learn behind a solid quarterback, a system developed by an offensive mind who plays a basic, solid system, based on the run game.

5) Detroit. It may take time here, but this can be a good system for a rookie, since they will based his scheme on the run game. Problem is the lack of weapons at the outside and they need a better offensive line.

6) Denver, they certainly have good young weapons in the outside, a solid runner and Pat Shurmur runs a quarterback friendly offence. They need to reinforce the offensive line, but with time, it can be a promising situation.

The next part will be to fit the quarterback with the team, we are almost sure on Lawrence to the jaguars, Wilson to the jets, but after that, everything right now is posturing.

I have no doubts Trevor Lawrence will become a franchise quarterback if he goes to San Francisco, I have my doubts he will if he goes to Jacksonville, and frankly, and it will take more time for him to produce if he is drafted by the Jets. The situation can determine the career of a player.

A good discussion to continue after the draft.
 
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Its fine by me. I wouldn’t mind seeing the first 27 picks be QBs, then we would have our pick of the best CB/LB/DL we want. The more QBs picked before us the better because I think our QB situation is above average and with another awesome D we’ll be fine.
 
Yeah, where you go is such a huge factor. It's much more likely that a bad franchise will bring down a good prospect than the rookie will be able to come in and turn a bad franchise around. So if there end up being four or five top ten quarterbacks that's one thing that most will have working against them in that they'll be going to bad teams.

Then you factor in the odds that probably at least one will draw the bad luck card and end up with injury issues that'll derail his career, and then the odds that at least one probably just isn't going to be able to adjust to the change in the speed of the game and level of competition, regardless of where he gets drafted.

It's certainly possible that this class could be an exception, and that Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Fields and Lance all hit. But more likely, by the time their rookie contracts expire you'll have a couple of them starting with the same team, a couple that didn't get a second contract with the team that drafted them but are still in the league, and another that's done with the NFL. The thing is you just don't know which ones will be which.
 
Well, there are about 10 prospects. Most years that usually means 2 or 3 will turn out to be solid starters.
 
The problem is usually the teams drafting for QBs need them because they consistently screw them up. Cleveland, New York, and the like. A QB drafted there is just going to an early death. Quality coaches choose the guy who fits them where they can get them and coach them up. Yes Mahomes is a tremendous QB. But if he was drafted by the Jets?

so, I really believe it depends so much more on where they end up than anything else.
 
I think the closest to a sure fire hit is Wilson.
Lawrence's hype outweighs his talent, but he still has lots of talent (just too much hype).
Mac Jones is intriguing but will only make it if he's on the right team with the right coach

-- Note the right team right coach thing is huge all around and every other player could be a franchise QB IF they end up in the right spot - certainly, the top three could be busts and out of the league if they go to the wrong place. Keeping that in mind, look at it based on a recent mock:

Lawrence to the Jaguars - Probably a 60% better chance of greatness
Wilson to the Jets - 50/50 at best, not because of Wilson, but because it's the Jets
Jones to the Niners - 60% or better, IMO
Fields to the Patriots - 60%
Lance to the Broncos - 20%
David Mills to the Bucs - 75% (sits and learns behind Brady for a year then takes the reins for a very good QB coach - the downside - Arians usually likes older QBs so probably not).

But consider any of above and put them on the Saints with Payton - Bump the probability of success by at least 10%
 
This is obviously a bigger than usual crop of potential solid QBs ... but having any of them them (Sunshine included) truly become solid in the NFL is a whole other story ... kinda like a Crap shoot
 
Elway, Eli, Ben, and Mahomes are the only QBs I think drafted in the 1st to win a ring with the team that drafted them. Drafting a QB is a huge crapshoot.
 
Elway, Eli, Ben, and Mahomes are the only QBs I think drafted in the 1st to win a ring with the team that drafted them. Drafting a QB is a huge crapshoot.
They were the only teams they ever played for, but Elway and Eli weren’t drafted by the Broncos and Giants (Colts and Chargers, respectively).
 
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