Article & Video: Breaking down all of Jameis Winston's 30 ints in 2019 (1 Viewer)

NOFALCONS10

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So I counted about 8 ints that were likely not his fault (batted/tipped passes, wrs ran wrong route, prayer hail Mary, hit as he threw, etc.) and a ton more into triple coverage that happened likely as a result of the lack of a realistic threat of a running game.

A bucs fan mentioned that they only had 1 100 yard rushing game last year




Adjusted interceptions:

"In Winston's defense, he threw a lot of passes into the hands of defenders in part because he threw a lot of passes period, a league-high 624. He threw an adjusted interception on 6.4% of his passes. That's still the highest rate in several years, but at least it's not totally unprecedented. The last qualifying passer with a higher rate was Chicago's Matt Barkley in 2016. The highest rate on record is the 7.1% of Carson Palmer, who threw 23 adjusted interceptions in 326 passes for the Oakland Raiders in 2011.

Because he threw so many interceptions, Winston is going from the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers to the backup for the Saints. That's going to be a radical shift in New Orleans, where last year's backup, Teddy Bridgewater, had the lowest adjusted interception rate in the league. Bridgewater, meanwhile, is moving on to Carolina, where he will replace Kyle Allen … whose adjusted interception rate of 5.3% was second-highest behind Winston.

With all those hundreds of passes, Winston's luck mostly evened out. The average quarterback throws about 30% more adjusted interceptions than actual interceptions. At that rate, we would expect a passer with 40 adjusted interceptions to finish with 30.8 actual interceptions, barely any higher than Winston's real-life total of 30. "


 

saintmike23

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Basically however you cut it he stunk up the place. If he starts I’m pulling for him to eat a W. But I’m scurred! ⚜😁🤟🏾
 

No2DC

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It's on him. Will he replicate Drew after San Diego, Alex Smith with Reid, or Blake Bortles and Mark Sanchez (soon to be Sam Arnold).
 
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Turns out asking a qb to throw the ball 628 times with no running game to speak of can be detrimental to your int ratio.

These are the highest single season totals for pass attempts in history.


Stafford tops the list and also had the highest int totals of his career from 2011 through 2013 when he had the most attempts.

The only reason those numbers probably weren't higher was because Calvin Johnson ran a 4.35 and you couldn't stack the box with Safeties like you can with with slower wrs not named megatron.

Drew Bledsoe for example was #2 on the list and in 1994 he had 27 ints.
 
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Another interesting note is that both Winston and Goff tied for the 29th most pass attempts ever last year but Goff only threw 16 ints compared to Winston.

The Rams' rushing offense was also a few spots lower than Tampa Bay but they did have a significantly better scoring offense (17th) than Tampa did (29th) and did have Brandin cooks as a deep threat a significant amount of the time.

Two surefire ways to relieve ints is a credible rush /short passing attack and/or a terrifying deep threat that keep Safeties and linebackers from cheat robber coverage.
 
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saintmike23

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You cherry picked a paragraph that didn’t even make him look good, just less horrible. I don’t know what you’re reading into. But the article is clear that he was historically bad. Also, he should have been benched. If you throw two picks then you’ll have to throw more passes to try to make up for it. That’s one reason they couldn’t run the ball more.


We have adjusted interception numbers dating back to 2007, and Winston is the first player since then to hit 40 adjusted interceptions in a season. Only three other players have even hit 30 in a season: Jay Cutler (34 in his first year with the Bears in 2009), Eli Manning (31 in 2013), and Luck (30 in 2012).

The gap between Winston and anyone else last year was monstrous. Philip Rivers and Kyle Allen each threw 26 adjusted interceptions. That was enough to tie for second place, but they were just as close to the 12 adjusted interceptions of 18th-place Josh Allen as they were to Winston. Baker Mayfield (23) and Andy Dalton (21) round out the top five.”

not only is the data clear but if you look at the nature of the interceptions thrown they are just head scratchers. Like really, what was he thinking? Wait, was he thinking?
 

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Another interesting note is that both Winston and Goff tied for the 29th most pass attempts ever last year but Goff only threw 16 ints compared to Winston.

The Rams' rushing offense was also a few spots lower than Tampa Bay but they did have a significantly better scoring offense (17th) than Tampa did (29th) and did have Brandin cooks as a deep threat a significant amount of the time.

Two surefire ways to relieve ints is a credible rush /short passing attack and/or a terrifying deep threat that keep Safeties and linebackers from cheat robber coverage.
The Bucs had two deep threats, and two number 1 receivers in Evan’s and Godwin. Your arguments aren’t holding up.
 

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So, in his highest rating year, he had 19 TDS and 11 interceptions. In the next 7 games, I predict he throws 10 interceptions. One thing is he will be pulled for Hill if he gets two interceptions in one game. For Jameis to succeed, two things must happen/; 1) running game is strong >130 years and 2) defense comes up with turnovers that leads to TD's. I see Payton, using Hill to run clock if the Saints are leading. I would be happy with a 2-2 record over the next 4 games.
 
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The Bucs had two deep threats, and two number 1 receivers in Evan’s and Godwin. Your arguments aren’t holding up.
Godwin ran a 4.42. Evan's ran a 4.5

Cooks runs a 4.29.
 

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I am excited for Winston as Brees’ temporary replacement, but one’s excitement should not come from being an apologist for his TB mistakes. It’s the fact that we all know and acknowledge Jameis is talented, just historically a terrible decision-maker. He showed signs of maturity when he signed with NO over a team where he could compete as a starter. That commitment to learn is a great sign.. If it clicks mentally, he’s a true first overall pick talent at QB.

People have to give him a chance.. Teddy was bad in relief against LAR last season before putting together a 5-0 run when CSP could scheme to his strengths. Winston’s skill set actually allows CSP to chip away underneath and then open up the vertical arsenal a bit more than with Brees, Taysom or Teddy, so we should all be intrigued by what Jameis can offer as a starter. Watch out for Deonte Harris this week.
 

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As a Jamis hater when he was with the Bucs, I am happy to see him get a chance with a real game plan, Running backs, and O-line. He needs to be patient. He tends to let his emotions get the best of him on a few throws (happy feet). At worst we find out if he is our QB of the future or do we need to draft one.
 
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You cherry picked a paragraph that didn’t even make him look good, just less horrible. I don’t know what you’re reading into. But the article is clear that he was historically bad. Also, he should have been benched. If you throw two picks then you’ll have to throw more passes to try to make up for it. That’s one reason they couldn’t run the ball more.


We have adjusted interception numbers dating back to 2007, and Winston is the first player since then to hit 40 adjusted interceptions in a season. Only three other players have even hit 30 in a season: Jay Cutler (34 in his first year with the Bears in 2009), Eli Manning (31 in 2013), and Luck (30 in 2012).

The gap between Winston and anyone else last year was monstrous. Philip Rivers and Kyle Allen each threw 26 adjusted interceptions. That was enough to tie for second place, but they were just as close to the 12 adjusted interceptions of 18th-place Josh Allen as they were to Winston. Baker Mayfield (23) and Andy Dalton (21) round out the top five.”

not only is the data clear but if you look at the nature of the interceptions thrown they are just head scratchers. Like really, what was he thinking? Wait, was he thinking?
As I posted above.

The data only goes back to 2007.

In 1994 Drew Bledsoe threw 27 ints and the next year posted only 16 in 1995 with Curtis Martin rushing for 1400 yards.


You want to downplay the impact that a ground game and deep threats have on a qb so long as it isn't Justin Fields.


Hell,Brees himself had 22 ints in 2010 when Chris Ivory and PT was injured.
 
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What's your point?
The point is that the only reason you can see 3 and 4 defenders around many of the picks Winston threw is due to 3 reasons.

1) no threat of a rushing attack to sell play action.

2) no fear of 4.2-4.3 40 speed over the top

3) no excellent short passing attack like the saints have.
 
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I am excited for Winston as Brees’ temporary replacement, but one’s excitement should not come from being an apologist for his TB mistakes. It’s the fact that we all know and acknowledge Jameis is talented, just historically a terrible decision-maker. He showed signs of maturity when he signed with NO over a team where he could compete as a starter. That commitment to learn is a great sign.. If it clicks mentally, he’s a true first overall pick talent at QB.

People have to give him a chance.. Teddy was bad in relief against LAR last season before putting together a 5-0 run when CSP could scheme to his strengths. Winston’s skill set actually allows CSP to chip away underneath and then open up the vertical arsenal a bit more than with Brees, Taysom or Teddy, so we should all be intrigued by what Jameis can offer as a starter. Watch out for Deonte Harris this week.
Bledsoe threw 27 ints in 1994 with no rushing attack and 2 years later he was in the Superbowl with Curtis Martin and Terry Glenn.

I'm willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt.

Even with poor coaching his career rating rivals early Brees and Manning.
 

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