As it stands now, I think Hillary takes Texas due to a new trend among Republican crossover voters. (3 Viewers)

[MackeyM]

Gotcha, SBTB. I've seen some reports that paint a different picture than what is proposed in this thread and I'm just curious as to what is actually happening in the different areas.

Houston is reporting the opposite of what gavinj is saying, so it looks like the polls may be correct in predicting a close race.

SaintsReport never ceases to amaze me with its diverse community.

 

[gavinj]

This may be true, but aren't you making the same faulty assumption in assuming that the majority of these votes are being cast for Hillary?

Have any returns been reported for the early balloting? I haven't seen any, thus far. Is this pure speculation on your part?

Not trying to disregard your posts, just wondering.

God I hope so. I would love to think people are pulling my leg on this one. It's the people I have handing out push cards (for lesser Democratic primary races, not the Obama/Clinton race - things like Congressional races, Judicial races, Sherriff, Tax Assessor, etc) at polls that first alerted me to this deal yesterday. At first I was in disbelief, but when I started to look at the numbers, I started to get a little worried. I contacted my peers in a few larger counties scattered across the state and told them about my concern and today, I spent 5 hours doing some informal exit polling (by informal, I mean no clipboard or Blackberry and no set of questions - just smiling, light conversation, trying to take some pulses as the voters head in and out of the polls) and sure enough - Republicans supporting McCain are crossing over in big numbers to vote exclusively for Hillary. My friends in other parts of the state are also confirming this in several e-mails I've received after they've done there own *very unscientific* questioning of early voters in Republican leaning areas of certain Democratic leaning counties that are critical to Obama. I know this is probably sounding a bit confusing at this point, haha.

The short answer to your question - no official returns have been released and they won't be until 7:00 pm March 4th. It's not 'pure speculation', but it could be a series of isolated events that I could be mistakenly reading into and using for the basis of making an erroneous assessment of the state of the race statewide. (And I have to honestly tell you, I hope I'm dead wrong. In fact, I've never wanted to eat crow so badly. It's like I think if I post it here, it won't happen and I will get some kind of comeuppance that I will richly deserve and happily take. I want to come back here on March 5th and have everybody tell me what a paranoid idiot I am and that I don't know the first thing about anything.)

The saving grace is, this is early voting and Obama has a major grassroots organization in place and his GOTV team from all over the country is the best I've ever seen set up shop here and they are statewide in places that I don't really know what's going on like pretty much the entire western half of the state. Unfortunately, that's probably Hillary country anyway among registered Democrats. Anyway, I'm rambling and exhausted at this point.

 

[Superfan]

taxing the rich = bad idea.

 

[gavinj]

Houston is reporting the opposite of what gavinj is saying, so it looks like the polls may be correct in predicting a close race.

Yeah, all the polls are still hovering 50/50. The problem is that the polls I've seen aren't asking the right questions to unearth the "McCain supporter turned Hillary primary voter" and therefore, they aren't making into the stats.

 

[Jonesy77]

It's happening. I know several (R)s who are doing this.

 

[Brandon13]

Gotta love a system that allows something like this to happen.

 

[primadox]

Gotta love a system that allows something like this to happen.

So true...as one who would vote for McCain if the elections were today, whether he faced Obama or especially Hillary, part of me thinks that voting for Hillary would be a great idea. But it just seems wrong. I have to vote for the candidate of my choice, period, and not play the games.

 

[Severum]

Yeah, all the polls are still hovering 50/50. The problem is that the polls I've seen aren't asking the right questions to unearth the "McCain supporter turned Hillary primary voter" and therefore, they aren't making into the stats.

I wonder if the early voting trends will be the same during the primacaucus. The tactical voting could be more pronounced now if talk radio is pushing it.

I don't envy anyone trying to poll Texas this cycle.

 

[Superfan]

it is sad that this is happening. why can't it be closed to only democrats?

 

[Severum]

it is sad that this is happening. why can't it be closed to only democrats?

It could be, the state parties set the rules. I wish Louisiana still had open primaries.

 

[primadox]

it is sad that this is happening. why can't it be closed to only democrats?

Seems like it, huh? It sure would avoid the games that are being played as a result. As I said before, it would make perfect sense for me to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot in good conscience do that. I plan to go vote for the candidate of my party that I support. I guess it should be nice that even as a Republican, if I didn't like McCain I could then choose who I'd like in the Democratic Party as the other option, but it's also obvious that this privilage is being abused.

 

[Brandon13]

Seems like it, huh? It sure would avoid the games that are being played as a result. As I said before, it would make perfect sense for me to vote for Hillary, but I just cannot in good conscience do that. I plan to go vote for the candidate of my party that I support. I guess it should be nice that even as a Republican, if I didn't like McCain I could then choose who I'd like in the Democratic Party as the other option, but it's also obvious that this privilage is being abused.

If Texas was a closed primary state and a person's registration had to be in 30-45 days before the election then this would not be a problem. That's the way they do it here in Florida and it seems to make the most sense to me.

 

[Sabine]

Since this thread is already here:

http://www.news8austin.com/content/top_stories/default.asp?ArID=201172

Bastrop women ages 91 and 101 vote Clinton

When it comes to the history of voting, most of us have only read about it. For Lenore Brieger and Jewel Hodges, each textbook page is a vivid memory.
"We've come a long way because back in my time, I don't suppose women were able to vote," Brieger said.
These women participated in early voting to support their candidate of choice.
"Well I'm voting for Hillary Clinton," Brieger said.
At 101 and 91 years old, Brieger and Hodges were both young when voting rights were passed.
Neither ever expected to see a woman run for president.
"I thank God if he lets me live to see it," Hodges said. "That's why I'm standing here right now, getting ready to vote for the first woman president."
Hodges spent 67 years working for civil rights.
"I know the price that had to be paid for me to come and cast this ballot so I take it very, very seriously," Hodges said.
Though she doesn't plan to vote for Sen. Barack Obama, Hodges is equally proud to see an African-American in the presidential race.

 

[Richard]

In Mississippi, you don't register to vote by party either. Some of this type of primary shenanigans has come back to bite Republicans here in the past. Several years ago, when Republicans had virtually no shot at winning the governor's race but were gaining in overall numbers, they voted en masse in the Democratic primary for Cliff Finch, who they thought they could beat in the general election. What they didn't figure on was that Finch would get such a big bump from his primary win that he would go on the win the general election as well and become one of the worst governors the state had had (which is saying a lot). Republicans got rid of the "tougher" opponent, but lost the general election anyway and helped saddle the state with a bad governor for four years.

So I side with Kellye. We should all vote for who we want to win and not attempt to manipulate the results by voting for someone you think your candidate can beat. If I were still a Republican, I would stay out of the Democrats' race and try to give my guy some momentum.

 

[TPS]

>>taxing the rich = bad idea.

posting = worse idea :17:

TPS