Avian Flu Jumps to Mammals (Update: First human case and death from H5N2 reported in Mexico) (1 Viewer)

Eeyore

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It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.


 
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Of the six known cases, I saw three dead. I'll try to find it.

Keep in mind that there may have been thousands+ of undiagnosed cases so no need to panic yet

WHO says 240 known cases 33 deaths. Once again, there may have been thousands of undiagnosed cases.

Clicking the link gives you a PDF. Keep that in mind

 
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Admittedly, when HIV jumped from monkeys to humans there wasn’t much diagnostics so it went undetected, unknown for 7 decades
But even when we were able to detect it, we had no natural defenses to fight it
Covid is something we were much more familiar fighting and it still kicked (is kicking) out butts
Now I don’t know to what degree avian flu could be compared to hiv, but I can appreciate the concern
 
Thanks for the answers guys
 
Not only does it so far have a high mortality rate, it has a tendency to develop deep in the lungs instead of upper airway. This is why the first rounds of Covid were so bad when it came to lung damage, and all the people being intubated vs the more currant strains which are upper airway. It also like any flu mutates easily meaning any vaccine may be of limited usage.

No, if it crosses and gets going it could very bad.
 
I work in the poultry industry and we talk about this all the time. Avian influenza is a real thing but the risk to humans is extremely low. The human cases are those that virtually live with poultry/birds around them 24/7 in very poor conditions. Imagine living in a chicken house, breathing in all that ammonia and waste. That's not good for anyone.

Plus, the mammals that contracted this AI ate the sick and/or dead animals: The animals were found to have a mutation of the virus that could make it easier to infect mammals, but there was no evidence of transmission between mammals.

Is it something to worry about? No. Is it something to keep an eye on? Probably.......
 
Guess this can go here

And I’ve said it before, whenever the next pandemic happens we will have learned no lessons

And that will be true whether it’s handled by people who experienced covid or the people who read about it in history class
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If you wanted to kill as many people as possible, deniably and with no criminal consequences, what would you do? You’d do well to start with a bird flu. Bird flus are responsible for all the known flu pandemics: the great influenza that started more than a century ago, “Asian flu”, “Hong Kong flu” and “Russian flu”, which killed tens of millions between them. They also cause many of the annual outbreaks that slaughter hundreds of thousands of people.

Once you have found a suitable variant, two further components are required to weaponise it. The first is an amplifier. The best amplifier is a giant shed or factory in which thousands of birds are packed.

These birds should be genetically homogenous, so that your viral strain can travel freely between them. Intensive poultry farms would serve very well. Before long, a low-pathogenic strain should mutate in these circumstances into a highly pathogenic variety.

To ensure maximum transmission, you should move some of the birds around, faster than the flu’s incubation period. You might carry them across borders. Some would be shifted to free-range or hobby farms, to enhance the possibility of infecting wild birds.

But it’s difficult for a flu virus to travel directly from birds to humans, so another component is required: a mixing vessel. This is a species that can simultaneously harbour the newly pathogenic bird virus and a flu variety already adapted to humans. Then the viruses, conveniently brought together, can exchange genetic material – a process known as “reassortment”.

Pigs are reasonable mixing vessels. They might have played this role in some previous outbreaks and pandemics. But there’s a much better candidate: mink. Mink readily harbour human and avian flu viruses. As predators, they can easily acquire avian flu from the meat they eat.

The distribution of sialic acid receptors – a key determinant of infection – in their respiratory tracts is similar to that of humans. Human flu strains can pass between them through aerosol transmission.

Mink also possess, to a remarkable degree, what scientists call “zoonotic potential”: in other words, they can be infected by, and infect, many different species. During the first phases of Covid-19, they proved to be highly effective intermediaries, partly because the virus seemingly evolves faster in mink than in humans.

They appear to have generated at least two new variants that spread to humans, one in Spain and one in Italy. Mink are the only known species that both received Covid-19 from humans and passed it back to them.

To enhance their mixing ability, you would cram hundreds or thousands of the tiny cages housing them together, so that this usually solitary animal is forced into contact with others.

You would reduce genetic diversity by breeding only those with a particular fur type. In other words, you would do what mink farms do today. Then you would sit back and wait.

The next pandemic might not have been seeded by a murderous psychopath, but, unless we are lucky, the effect could be the same. H5N1 was a fairly harmless bird flu until a highly pathogenic variant was hatched in a Chinese goose farm in 1996. It is deadly to humans.

On the rare occasions when people have contracted this variant, it has proved fatal more often than not: of 868 infected up to October last year, 457 have died. Though it has been devastating to both poultry flocks and wild birds, however, its transmissibility from birds to most mammals, and from person to person, is thankfully extremely low.

But mink farming offers the mixing vessel it needs. In 2021, a paper in the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections reported that about a third of the mink the researchers tested harboured both bird flu and human flu antibodies. It warned that this joint infection could generate novel viruses “with high human infectivity”.

The public health threat “should not be ignored”, as it had “pandemic potential”.

Needless to say, it was ignored……

 
It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.



If you go back and read the first few pages of the original covid thread we also thought it wouldn’t be a big deal
 

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