Bad PI calls are killing the NFL (1 Viewer)

[nolaswede]

On that topic, take the Vikings last night.

Packers had 80+% of the money on them yet we saw reverse line movement toward the Packers anyway.

When I saw that, this was my post in the betting thread before the game:



30 minutes before I put 2 units on the Vikings.



I'm not a genius bettor, but anyone that bets starts to see stuff like this and realize something is going on. If you don't bet, you probably won't understand.

There's a chicken or the egg argument I guess. Is Vegas just "that good" handicapping and predicting outcomes? Or are games being influenced when the money is so one-sided?

Either way, I've seen what happened last night happen way too often for it to be mere chance.

Well, yesterday most "sharps" were on the Vikings so that was a good call. Pretty mush impossible to find out how much $ is being placed on either team, but when 80% of the public is on the Packers and the line doesn't move in that direction, you can figure out where the "smartest" bettors put their $.

Would be great to find out the exact $ each week. Good call in the Vikings!

 

[duckjr78]

I'm completely all in on the conspiracy theory. It all just makes too much sense. From the tax "entertainment" setup, to the betting lines, to the lack of a Vegas team, to the types of games and calls that get made.

In fact, the thing that is keeping the NFL growing at such a frantic pace, fantasy football, may be the sword that cuts their throat. More people now watch more games and eventually more of them will see what we see.

It's a disingenuous product.

The only games that are "legit" are the blowouts. The close games are tweaked to stay that way. Not necessarily tweaked to affect the outcome, but kept close. The Giants' Oline holding example that Brennan77 made is perfect. Huge money game that is lopsided, like Bonchie said? Watch the game go the other way.

Watch for the Saints to win a Super Bowl before Brees retires. Manning is gone and Brady has won plenty, there's no pressure for him to go out a winner. Add to that the $11m "donation" (small change, I know) that the Bensons made to the HOF field and the fact that New Orleans probably won't host a Super Bowl before Mr. Benson passes, and I just feel like the NFL is going to architect a Saints run or two, much like Peyton's. The team has done their job, clearing cap space and bringing in young talent, of course, but we all know that doesn't matter if you don't get the calls late in games late in the year.

I love the Saints, but I hate the NFL.

 

[BoNcHiE]

Well, yesterday most "sharps" were on the Vikings so that was a good call. Pretty mush impossible to find out how much $ is being placed on either team, but when 80% of the public is on the Packers and the line doesn't move in that direction, you can figure out where the "smartest" bettors put their $.

Would be great to find out the exact $ each week. Good call in the Vikings!

You can't know for sure, but if you simply put yourself in the mindset of a normal NFL fan (just read some of things on this board), it's not hard to spot games where the money is clearly going to be lopsided.

Then pay attention to line movement from there. Does it make sense? If it doesn't, then bet the other side. Nothing is full proof, but it does become more predictable.

 

[efil4stnias]

On that topic, take the Vikings last night.

Packers had 80+% of the money on them yet we saw reverse line movement toward the Packers anyway.

When I saw that, this was my post in the betting thread before the game:



30 minutes before I put 2 units on the Vikings.



I'm not a genius bettor, but anyone that bets starts to see stuff like this and realize something is going on. If you don't bet, you probably won't understand.

There's a chicken or the egg argument I guess. Is Vegas just "that good" handicapping and predicting outcomes? Or are games being influenced when the money is so one-sided?

Either way, I've seen what happened last night happen way too often for it to be mere chance.

i told my buddy leaving the Dome last Sunday that i hope, before my lifetime is over, someone takes a leap of faith and whistle-blows the whole thing.

For that Side judge to throw a flag, on that play...then to NOT have ANY OTHER REF huddle with the ump to MAKE SURE WHAT HE SAW was indeed a foul ( when huddles happen ROUTINELY in the NFL and referees to overturn/pick up a flag ) I just KNEW. and I DONT EVEN BET.

Then we get almost identical call Sunday AGAIN on a ball 5 yds BEHIND the WR after the WR initiates the contact and our DB was merely breaking the arm bar with a swipe.

Its unwatchable for certain. KNowing that outcomes are "moved" a certain way. They ( The NFL ) cant "fix" - but they can darn sure give a team the edge to come out on top.

Its why im totally convinced 2009 was a "gift" and SP didnt want to go for the 1 year wonder. He wanted to keep it going and against "someones" request, he tried. Ended up suspended for 1 full year and docked multiple draft picks.

Ive said it on here before- that whole bountygate was for "not playing along".

 

[Complex Kid]

Knowing that the rule is the way it is, our WR's need to start doing their best impression of the wacky waving arm flailing inflatable tube man after a catch.

Game film for getting the technique down pat

 

[ASaintFerLife]

Saints aside, I'm really starting to enjoy the league less because of these calls. I watch a lot of games (because of betting) and it's become ridiculous at this point. There are now sometimes half a dozen or so games a week largely decided on PI calls made late in the 4th.

No crew calls it the same either. You routinely see one team not even allowed to breath on a receiver while others get away with arm bars and grabbing like it's nothing, often within the same game with the same crew. The uncatchable portion of the rule is rarely applied correctly and seems to be at the whim of whether another team needs to be kept in a game or not (both game changing PIs against us were clearly out of bounds and uncatchable).

The rule is also way too one sided. WRs can stop on their routes or cut into a CB and still draw a flag. Teams know this and routinely throw up prayers hoping for a call. And call me a conspiracy theorist, but big market teams seem to always get more benefit of the doubt as well in crunch time.

The fact that these calls aren't reviewable makes no sense. You should at the very least be able to challenge if the ball was catchable or not. Why does the NFL insist on keeping such total control over the outcomes of games by making PI unreviewable?

Why not make the rule so that it's not a penalty unless the WRs path is actually altered (i.e. no more tick-tacky penalties because a DB touched the other guys back)?

There's no safety issue here. So what's the logic in making PI such a game-changing/one-sided affair? The NFL needs to fix this. Their product has gotten worse and worse the past few years and PI calls are are a major factor.

You totally right on, it's like the catch rule, whats a catch, when is it a catch, it seems a never ending issue.

 

[Surviving Saint]

i told my buddy leaving the Dome last Sunday that i hope, before my lifetime is over, someone takes a leap of faith and whistle-blows the whole thing.


Its why im totally convinced 2009 was a "gift" and SP didnt want to go for the 1 year wonder. He wanted to keep it going and against "someones" request, he tried. Ended up suspended for 1 full year and docked multiple draft picks.

Ive said it on here before- that whole bountygate was for "not playing along".

You sir, are using your head. The Bounty gate thing was exactly as you described. I cant say we wont win another one under him but its safe to say the chances are slim. If we are awarded another on its because of the suspension.

Dont ever expect a whistle blower because if Im giving you millions of dollars a week, you wont give that up to call me out. I can give you $10 million a year, your whistle blowing book deal will net you about $100,000 after I slander you on National TV.

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[dvdman]

Amen to your post. It's almost like the refs can't wait to throw the flag.

Saints aside, I'm really starting to enjoy the league less because of these calls. I watch a lot of games (because of betting) and it's become ridiculous at this point. There are now sometimes half a dozen or so games a week largely decided on PI calls made late in the 4th.

No crew calls it the same either. You routinely see one team not even allowed to breath on a receiver while others get away with arm bars and grabbing like it's nothing, often within the same game with the same crew. The uncatchable portion of the rule is rarely applied correctly and seems to be at the whim of whether another team needs to be kept in a game or not (both game changing PIs against us were clearly out of bounds and uncatchable).

The rule is also way too one sided. WRs can stop on their routes or cut into a CB and still draw a flag. Teams know this and routinely throw up prayers hoping for a call. And call me a conspiracy theorist, but big market teams seem to always get more benefit of the doubt as well in crunch time.

The fact that these calls aren't reviewable makes no sense. You should at the very least be able to challenge if the ball was catchable or not. Why does the NFL insist on keeping such total control over the outcomes of games by making PI unreviewable?

Why not make the rule so that it's not a penalty unless the WRs path is actually altered (i.e. no more tick-tacky penalties because a DB touched the other guys back)?

There's no safety issue here. So what's the logic in making PI such a game-changing/one-sided affair? The NFL needs to fix this. Their product has gotten worse and worse the past few years and PI calls are are a major factor.

 

[LiterOCola]

I agree that they need to stop calling the small stuff. Players hand-check each other down the field every play, but the flag tends to come out one way or the other when the pass really matters. I really wish they'd take a cue from the Canadian league where the defenders are given more leeway to actually defend.

I forgot which game it was because I was bouncing around, but one crew did negate a pass interference because the pass was uncatchable. The ref did the hand over the head signal to indicate it. I think it was the Raiders/Falcons game.

So at least one crew knows the rule exists.

 

[UFCSaint]

On the first series yesterday it looked like the refs were going to let them play. Most of the game was called that way...until it came down to the winning drive...again.

 

[duckjr78]

On the first series yesterday it looked like the refs were going to let them play. Most of the game was called that way...until it came down to the winning drive...again.

Isn't it funny that when you let the players play(for the most part), you get a "normal" final score, not the pinball scores that are the norm now.

I wonder why this game played out that way? Oh, right, because 80% of the money was on the over. Sheesh.

 

[UFCSaint]

Is there a .gif anywhere of that bad PI call on Moore?

 

[Surviving Saint]

Isn't it funny that when you let the players play(for the most part), you get a "normal" final score, not the pinball scores that are the norm now.

I wonder why this game played out that way? Oh, right, because 80% of the money was on the over. Sheesh.

Here is the thing with that though. The refs can sway an outcome and keep it close but the O/U has to do with play calling. Everyone in the NFL knows the numbers before the game starts. Dont think they not doing their part either.

 

[RiverRat]

I tend to gripe about this a lot.

What it boils down to is that there are 22 moving guys on the field and literally every move they make is open to interpretation. If I could draft a zebra to my fantasy team, I would. They can literally do whatever they want out there.

If I were a head coach or an owner, I'd be pushing for more regulations and performance reviews for these referees.

As far as rule changes, I'd like to see defensive holding no longer be an automatic first down. I got the 5 yards IF the the receiver is affected. And definitely a no call if the ball is not catchable or if the QB never looks that way.

 

[RiverRat]

if you want to watch a bunch of dudes crying about wanting a foul, just watch basketball.