Best Realistic Scenario on How to Actually Have a 2020 NFL Season - Washington Post (1 Viewer)

[tak]

When a College of Emergency Physicians has to issue a statement its bad:

"The video also prompted the American College of Emergency Physicians and American Academy of Emergency Medicine to issue a forceful joint statement on Monday calling the pair's claims "reckless and untested musings" that "are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19."
"As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public's health," the statement read, "COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making."

Still lacking an argument on actual practices in work, immunology and historical evidence. Just more of them looking down the nose because someone dared to disagree with their group.

 

[tak]

When a College of Emergency Physicians has to issue a statement its bad:

"The video also prompted the American College of Emergency Physicians and American Academy of Emergency Medicine to issue a forceful joint statement on Monday calling the pair's claims "reckless and untested musings" that "are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19."
"As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public's health," the statement read, "COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making."

Is Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert considered a "reputable source"? I personally am not a big fan of the WHO but...
https://fee.org/articles/who-offici...responsibility-a-model-for-the-rest-of-world/
Again, we have devastated millions of people's financial livelihood wrecking the economy I believe that we owe it to ourselves to consider other options.

 

[where yat brah]

The author of that article is also a former speech writer for George Bush and a very hard line conservative. Just so we all know who you are referencing.

 

[StudioSaint]

Is Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert considered a "reputable source"?

Just finished reading the article you provided. Here are all of the direct and indirect quotes from Dr. Mike Ryan in that article.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said Sweden’s social distancing policies are often misunderstood by the public.

“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Dr. Mike Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”

Ryan said the biggest difference between Sweden and most nations is that the Swedes are encouraging voluntary participation with its citizens while focusing government resources on at risk populations.

“What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate,” Ryan said. “In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.”

“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” Ryan told reporters.

Let's take a look at everything Dr. Mike Ryan said in regards to Sweden of which you can watch and/or read the transcripts here:

WATCH LIVE The World Health Organization holds news conference on novel coro...

Tarik: Hello to everyone from WHO Headquarters here in Geneva. My name is Tarik [inaudible 00:00:12]. And we welcome you for our regular press briefing on COVID-19. Today, as we have previous days, we have simultaneous interpretation to six UN languages, plus Portuguese. And I would like to take...

www.rev.com

Let's start with the fact that he was responding to this question:

My question is on Sweden. It's a country that chose a different road and strategy, basically no lock down and an open society through the crisis. Could this mean that the population of Sweden, and maybe other countries that are not hard, strict lockdowns, have a chance to be better protected in case of a second wave, as they have been more exposed and have had a chance to develop a possible herd immunity?

He starts by pointing out that Sweden has actually put in place a public health policy of physical distancing. Because of the dynamics of their society, they were able to simply ask people to physically distance instead of having to make them do it. Bottom line, even in Sweden people are maintaining physical distance and doing the other things that almost everyone else has been doing.

Thank you. I think two things here. I think there’s a perception out there that Sweden has not put in place control measures and has just allowed the disease to spread. Nothing could be further from the truth. Sweden has put in place a very strong public health policy around physical distancing, around caring and protecting for people in long-term facilities and many of the things. What it has done differently is that it’s very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry, and the ability and willingness of citizens to implement physical distancing and to self regulate, if you want to use that word. In that sense, they’ve implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.

He then goes on to say that quite a low rate of people are developing individual immunity, which means the jury is still out on herd immunity as a strategy.

With regard to this concept of herd immunity, I think we will wait. I believe sero prevalence studies are underway in Sweden as well as many, many other countries. Maria can speak to that because WHO, with our partners, have done a large review of all of the seroepidemiologic studies that are underway and some of the results that are available. But I will say that the general outcome, even in areas of fairly intense transmission, the proportion of people who have seroconverted or who have antibodies in their blood is actually quite low, which is a concern because it does mean the vast majority of people remain susceptible. So the chances of disease rebounding or returning is quite high, especially if control measures or lock-down type measures are released too quickly, without being replaced by case finding, contact tracing, testing and strong community compliance.

What he actually said about Sweden being a model was an if-then statement. He said if we want to lift lock downs, then Sweden in many ways can serve as a model, but we will probably still need to adjust our physical and social relationships (this includes our relationships with work) for a medium to long period of time due to the presence of the virus.

I think if we are to reach a new normal, I think in many ways Sweden represents a future model of if we wish to get back to a society in which we don't have lock downs, then society may need to adapt for a medium or potentially a longer period of time, in which our physical and social relationships with each other will have to be modulated by the presence of the virus.

He then went on to say that we'll still have to do everything we can to stop the spread of the virus. That means we will still have to do most of things we are doing. He emphasizes more than once that we can not get complacent about keeping this virus in check as much as we possibly can.

We will have to be aware the virus is present and we will have to, as individuals and families and communities, do everything possible on a day-to-day basis to reduce the transmission of that virus. That may mean adjusting the way we live our lives. I think maybe in Sweden they’re looking at how that is done in real time. So I think there may be lessons to be learned from our colleagues in Sweden.

He concludes his answer about Sweden and herd immunity by again pointing out that the question made the incorrect assumption that the people of Sweden did not practice physical distancing and the other measures that everyone else has. He points out again that the fundamental difference is that Swedish authorities have asked and trusted people to do what needs to be done, instead of issuing government orders.

His closing remark was that it remains to be seen whether Sweden's approach will work. The jury is still out on them, just like it is on everyone else.

But again, I wanted just to emphasize, Sweden has not avoided controlling COVID-19. It’s taken a very strong, strategic approach to controlling COVID-19 across all of the elements of society. What it has done differently is it really, really has trusted its own communities to implement that physical distancing. That is something that remains to be seen whether that will be fully successful or not.

Again, we have devastated millions of people's financial livelihood wrecking the economy...

From the beginning, this was a choice between bad and worse options. Going about our normal lives likely would have resulted in hundreds of thousands to millions of people dying preventable deaths.

People have been financially devastated by the lost of their livelihood. It's tragic, but so is death. A person can recover from financial devestation, they can not recover from death or chronic health problems.

The complacency around ramping up testing and contact tracing is what "wrecked" the economy, that's what forced us into "lock down's." We could have done a better job of preventing deaths while at the same time protecting the economy, if we had put a real effort into ramping up testing capacity and contact tracing. Our failure to do that is what lead to the need for the physical distancing orders. It was our only option for preventing a devastating loss of life

Does anyone here drive on unlit roads on a new moon night with the headlights off? Our woefully low per capita testing capacity and lack of significant contact tracing is like driving down a farm road on new moon night with the headlights off. It's absurdly irrational.

To safely end our current physical distancing measures we need to be at a much higher level of per capita testing and contact tracing, to develop a reliable life saving treatment, or to develop a vaccine. Right now we have none of those things, so physical distancing is all we have at the moment to avoid a devastating loss of lives and to keep the economy from getting "wrecked" worse than it currently is.

...I believe that we owe it to ourselves to consider other options.

Like what? What other options do you think we have?

How do you think we can safely stop the physical distancing we are doing without the increased scale of per capita testing that we need, without a reliable life saving treatment, or without a vaccine? How do you think we can go ease up without at least one of those things?

 

[dapperdan]

Those 2 have had their videos removed from Facebook, because they failed the "facts" test. They have been debunked by every reputable organization, medically & news. They have been subjected to what passes for "ridicule" in scientific circles. Their obvious business bent is obvious. That's not a rant, that an observation that almost everybody has seen. They nahve sprinkled "facts" thatlook good on the surface. Their "credentials"(though NOT in the areas they address) also lends them that "white coat" trust.


You talk of rants. Well continuing to spread bullshirt, in the guise of actual useful info is exactly that. The facts don't back up "your" belief, so just ignore it. Definitely taking it's cues from the political crowd in the WH. Every scientific mind in the admin are of 1 mind; stop Trump from making "erroneous" statements & then trying to walk back his statements while maintain a proper "kiss the ring" appearance to save their jobs. Obviously, it hasn't worked, as seen by the largest Administration personnel turnover in US history.

I am curious where you got the idea: "not everyone is vulnerable". W/the testing of less than 20% of the population & a large segment of the infected by asymptomatic, makes it impossible to make that claim. The main reason for the leveling(in some states) is due specifically to social distancing & staying home. That soon will be obvious.
There is entire world of information out there. It does not support the fringe theories espoused by the Admin. The US refuses to believe that "we "aren't special & only trust "our" experts(even when they obviously don't).
The admin & Sen have made the economic disaster even worse by filling the corporate troughs & doing next to nothing for small business & the populace. The admin politicized the pandemic for profit!

The second you relied on Facebook you lost me. They are so biased it’s pitiful. Have they pulled all the Russia hoax videos. I’ve read all your posts in this thread and I can tell you numerous friends that are medical researchers disagree with everyone of them but you obviously believe in your own little bubble.
You also know nothing about the economics of this. Small biz are getting hammered and you blame the senate and president. The house won’t even show up to work. Still can’t believe you cited Facebook. I believe nothing on that site. You proved your ignorance.

 

[tak]

Just finished reading the article you provided. Here are all of the direct and indirect quotes from Dr. Mike Ryan in that article.

​

​

​

​

​

Let's take a look at everything Dr. Mike Ryan said in regards to Sweden of which you can watch and/or read the transcripts here:

WATCH LIVE The World Health Organization holds news conference on novel coro...

Tarik: Hello to everyone from WHO Headquarters here in Geneva. My name is Tarik [inaudible 00:00:12]. And we welcome you for our regular press briefing on COVID-19. Today, as we have previous days, we have simultaneous interpretation to six UN languages, plus Portuguese. And I would like to take...

www.rev.com

Let's start with the fact that he was responding to this question:

​

He starts by pointing out that Sweden has actually put in place a public health policy of physical distancing. Because of the dynamics of their society, they were able to simply ask people to physically distance instead of having to make them do it. Bottom line, even in Sweden people are maintaining physical distance and doing the other things that almost everyone else has been doing.

​

He then goes on to say that quite a low rate of people are developing individual immunity, which means the jury is still out on herd immunity as a strategy.

​

What he actually said about Sweden being a model was an if-then statement. He said if we want to lift lock downs, then Sweden in many ways can serve as a model, but we will probably still need to adjust our physical and social relationships (this includes our relationships with work) for a medium to long period of time due to the presence of the virus.

​

He then went on to say that we'll still have to do everything we can to stop the spread of the virus. That means we will still have to do most of things we are doing. He emphasizes more than once that we can not get complacent about keeping this virus in check as much as we possibly can.

​

He concludes his answer about Sweden and herd immunity by again pointing out that the question made the incorrect assumption that the people of Sweden did not practice physical distancing and the other measures that everyone else has. He points out again that the fundamental difference is that Swedish authorities have asked and trusted people to do what needs to be done, instead of issuing government orders.

His closing remark was that it remains to be seen whether Sweden's approach will work. The jury is still out on them, just like it is on everyone else.

​

From the beginning, this was a choice between bad and worse options. Going about our normal lives likely would have resulted in hundreds of thousands to millions of people dying preventable deaths.

People have been financially devastated by the lost of their livelihood. It's tragic, but so is death. A person can recover from financial devestation, they can not recover from death or chronic health problems.

The complacency around ramping up testing and contact tracing is what "wrecked" the economy, that's what forced us into "lock down's." We could have done a better job of preventing deaths while at the same time protecting the economy, if we had put a real effort into ramping up testing capacity and contact tracing. Our failure to do that is what lead to the need for the physical distancing orders. It was our only option for preventing a devastating loss of life

Does anyone here drive on unlit roads on a new moon night with the headlights off? Our woefully low per capita testing capacity and lack of significant contact tracing is like driving down a farm road on new moon night with the headlights off. It's absurdly irrational.

To safely end our current physical distancing measures we need to be at a much higher level of per capita testing and contact tracing, to develop a reliable life saving treatment, or to develop a vaccine. Right now we have none of those things, so physical distancing is all we have at the moment to avoid a devastating loss of lives and to keep the economy from getting "wrecked" worse than it currently is.

Like what? What other options do you think we have?

How do you think we can safely stop the physical distancing we are doing without the increased scale of per capita testing that we need, without a reliable life saving treatment, or without a vaccine? How do you think we can go ease up without at least one of those things?

That's the point of the article. A sensible and responsive approach. Sweden took a cautious approach without creating a second problem by collapsing the economy. They allowed the citizenry to make logical decisions tailored to each situation. As opposed to an intellectually lazy approach we've taken of throwing everyone under the same blanket. I understand the initial reaction because we didn't know. Our approach should've evolved with understanding. Instead millions have lost jobs. Some have lost their lives because hospitals refused treatment, diagnosis, etc. due to a priority shift. Others out of fear downplayed fatal symptoms. All while there are many hospital beds open and safe sensible ways to see patients. In New York people are having to live with their deceased loved ones for days. All unnecessary at this point.

Btw I never mentioned stopping social distancing in every scenario. Yet let's be realistic, people are in grocery stores daily much closer than 6 ft. and our fatality numbers are not rising up here in Wa state.

In fact they're finding that far more people have already been infected than thought before. Which means the fatality rate is much lower than previously thought. Some of the earlier fatality rate numbers are generated from case study's of people confirmed and seen by a doctor for Covid. Now Docs are finding via testing there are far more people that have already had it and didn't know which consequently would drive the fatality rates much lower (likely to 0.25).

UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal

A UPMC doctor estimates thousands of people in the Pittsburgh region have come in contact with the coronavirus but didn't feel any sickness.

www.pennlive.com

 

[Super44]

They’ll start pay-per-viewing the games

Byyyyyeeee! Not for me. But good luck to them. I pay for season tickets to attend hone games. I am not for having to pay to watch away games.

 

[KiwiSaint]

Bring everybody to Australia. We've got more than enough stadiums down here to accommodate a hub. Plus there are very few cases of community transmission, which should be down to zero by the time the season is due to start.

Yes, good idea...the Saints can be based in Bendigo...

 

[Super44]

I cannot see any team sport, playing this year. The only sports I can conceivably see starting up once again are; golf (no fans), tennis (no fans), bowling (no fans). Horse racing (continues as it has with no fans). Other than what I mentioned, I am not a fan, or believer in having any team sports playing. NASCAR, Indy car, Formula 1 type racing...etc., are really team sports when you consider all of the individual racing team support staff, emergency response folks, track support staff and so on. There is way too much that could go sideways in a hurry with the players, their families, support staff and administrative folks. No way should any team sport league be thinking of playing this year, or beyond, until a vaccine is developed.

 

[StudioSaint]

That's the point of the article. A sensible and responsive approach. Sweden took a cautious approach without creating a second problem by collapsing the economy.

First and foremost, I appreciate that your response is not personal.

Your assessment of the point of the article you provided is correct. The problem is that the author and the article is mistaken about what actually is happening in Sweden and the full context of what Dr. Mike Ryan said.

Sweden did not take a cautious approach. They asked their citizens to do mostly the same things we have been ordered to do. Most of the citizens of Sweden responded by doing what was asked of them, just like most of us here have chosen to cooperate with the orders that have been put out. Even though we were ordered and they were asked, we are both doing mostly the same things and making the same sacrifices to slow the spread of the virus.

The US economy has not collapsed. That's a fact. Another fact, Sweden is in recession too just like us and most of the world.

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

Sweden Predicts Recession to Rival Economic Crisis of 2008

Sweden’s government expects the economy to contract as deeply as it did during the global financial crisis of 2008 as the coronavirus pandemic brings life to a virtual standstill.

www.bloomberg.com

They allowed the citizenry to make logical decisions tailored to each situation.

That's not what's happening in Sweden. That was the whole point of what Dr. Mike Ryan was saying. People have a mistaken view of what's happening in Sweden. The government issued mostly the same blanket recommendations as our state and local governments have issued as orders. Sweden trusted it's people to follow the recommendations and they have.

The reality here is that our governors and mayors have relied more on the carrot than the stick to motivate us. There is no jackboot police state here. People are choosing to follow the orders, they are not being coerced or forced into it. The only exception is Gallup, NM. That is the only place in the entire country that is under anything close to a true lock down and it just happened in the past few days.

There are a few regular posters here who are from Sweden and surrounding countries. Search for them and read what they have been saying about what's going on in Sweden.

The biggest point that Dr. Mike Ryan made is that it still remains to be seen if Sweden's approach will work, just like it does with everyone else. It's too early to be declaring any country's approach as a success or a failure.

Our approach should've evolved with understanding. Instead millions have lost jobs.

Sweden's unemployment rate is climbing too. People are losing their jobs in Sweden too. Swedish authorities expect it to keep climbing. The reason it's climbing is because the pandemic causes recession and damages the economy all by itself because of the physical, emotional and financial toll it inflicts.

Swedish Labour Board Says Unemployment at 8% as Virus Hits Economy

Sweden's Public Employment Service (SPES) said on Monday unemployment rose to 8% in the past week after a wave of redundancies due to the effects of the novel coronavirus on the economy.

www.nytimes.com

Yet let's be realistic, people are in grocery stores daily much closer than 6 ft...

The problem with anecdotal claims like this is there is no way of confirming or disproving the anecdotal claim. I can honestly tell you that here in Los Angeles the vast majority of people are keeping a distance and wearing masks everywhere I go. The vast majority of the stores are strictly enforcing the scaled down maximum occupancy. Our limited personal experiences are just that, limited. That's why they are useless in a reasoned and fact based discussion.

Now Docs are finding via testing there are far more people that have already had it and didn't know which consequently would drive the fatality rates much lower (likely to 0.25)

The mortality rate coming down as we test more people was expected and predicted for months now, it's not a surprise. Nobody really knows the actual rate at this time. It could be lower or higher than this doctor suggests it is.

Even if that turns out to be the actual average mortality rate, it's still 2.5 times more fatal than influenza. Covid-19 is also 2 to 3 times more infectious than the flu. So those factors multiple each other to create a significant threat to life. Here's a quick table that illustrates total deaths in the US based on a 0.25% fatality rate across various exposure percentages.

% Population Exposed​	# Exposed​	# of Deaths​
10%​	33,000,000​	82,500​
20%​	66,000,000​	165,000​
30%​	99,000,000​	247,500​
40%​	132,000,000​	330,000​
50%​	165,000,000​	412,500​
60%​	198,000,000​	495,000​
70%​	231,000,000​	577,500​
80%​	264,000,000​	660,000​
90%​	297,000,000​	742,500​
100%​	330,000,000​	825,000​

This is a case of not as bad still being very bad. Not as deadly as feared, does not mean not very deadly.

Keep in mind this doesn't account for the even higher percentage of people that require hospitalization to survive.

 

[Saint Kamara]

So Sweden is going the route of herd immunity and is considered only weeks away from achieving it.

Doing some simple math:

Population 10 million

Current deaths 2,700

If we nearly double the deaths to 5,000 (I think it will end up less than that actually), here is the % of the population that will have died from covid-19 after achieving wide-scale immunity to the virus:

0.05%

That's about half the death rate of the common flu.

 

[StudioSaint]

So Sweden is going the route of herd immunity and is considered only weeks away from achieving it.

Who did you hear say Sweden is only three weeks away from achieving herd immunity? Please provide a full citation of that source, because I'd like to look into it for myself.

The CDC, the World Health Organization and every other credible expert in the field has said that there is medical evidence that suggests herd immunity may not even be possible with this virus.

The simple math you provided may end up being accurate, but it is as wildly speculative at this time as it is simple. I haven't heard any credible expert speculate that COVID-19 is only half as deadly as the common flu. In fact, they all say that it's significantly more deadly.

I get that some people really want there to be an NFL season this year, but let's not try to fool ourselves into believing things that are not supported by all of the facts we actually know at this time and the informed opinions of credible experts.

 

[Swimmer]

Thanx Swimmer, if I had to guess(like everybody else) most of the players are going crazy & want to get on w/it, damn the consequences. I wouldn't want my kid to be out there, but so far there hasn't been a difference in recovery rates between athletes & the rest of the populace. Likely too small a sample size to be truly indicative. A NFL locker room is full of all sorts of nasty crap & many have never been really concerned. Look @ how many careers have been blown up by MERSA. It took years for a response. MERSA is not near as contagious.

I'm done tilting @ this windmill. The prism of conspiracy is affecting too many. The keyboard warriors w/medical degrees seem to be as plentiful as the ones that are General Manager.

Stay home, stay safe, the life you save might be your own...or Drew Brees.

I know your response will be unpopular with some and because of the severity of this crisis, opinions and feelings are strong. But I just wanted to say Thx much for your response.

 

[Excelsior88]

Based on the article earlier in this thread, the Swedes did the responsible thing and stayed away from each other. Now I want you to take that thought and apply it towards Americans. Many of which are arrogant, devil-may-care, and severely selfish at times. Now I also want you to think of all the Americans who refuse to wash their hands(even before covid-19) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds and imagine why this virus is spreading like it is.

And for those saying it's not as deadly. Yes not everyone is tested for covid-19 and it's a shame but the same can be said for the flu. The number of cases of flu each year is probably more due to people doing the responsible thing and staying home and getting better or just believing they have a cold because it just wasn't that bad(maybe they had the flu shot, maybe they didn't who knows) and it not being reported. The numbers are what they are and in Louisiana they hover around a mortality rate of between 4-6%. We can't extrapolate any data to reflect those that aren't tested because, well, they aren't tested. Not enough is known to give an accurate idea of what going on. Then there is the cases of deaths of young people where they may not be attributed to covid-19 because they didn't have the symptoms. These young individuals had strokes or bleeding events that caused their deaths but many individuals with these events are now starting to be tested because it's believed this coronavirus is causing these cardiovascular events. Young and old are being affected and no one knows why.

Stop putting out your rhetoric if you or your sources don't at least have some form of medical degree or doctorate in dealing with virology, immunology, etc. And for the two physicians, they've been outed with incorrect/incomplete data that can not be used for the general population of the US. Move on and just learn to live with this right now.

 

[Swimmer]

There's some really interesting, well thought out responses in this thread. Thx to all. 3 things we pretty well know

1) It's too soon for the medical community and scientists to know anything for sure
2) Sweden has National Healthcare so people are not afraid of losing their homes by going to their Doctors or Hospitals, unlike what so many people face over here. I am not taking a political position on this. Simply stating a fact about each countries health insurance
3) There's no NFL in Sweden

The draft is over. Free agency is largely over. Normal summer camp is a couple of of months out. What in the heck is going to happen to our Football this year?