Best W-L record for QBs attempting 35 passes or less (1 Viewer)

[SoggyBottomBoy]

Misleading stat is misleading.

Yep. Interesting information, but drawing some sort of absolute conclusion from it is misguided. Too many unknown variables.

 

[Saint Kamara]

If it was a 30-13 record then I would agree, but it was two blown games from being 43-0 for Christ's sake.

For people not to appreciate that is verging on the point of being ignorant, if I'm being honest.

I could do some further research but I bet the game was in the balance midway through the 3rd quarter in nearly 80 percent of those games.

Actually those that question the validity of my assertion should do the research to disprove that it really is meaningful.

 

[bouxdag]

I don't think it's meaningful because it's not surprising. There's a reason the sample size is smaller for Drew compared to the others. No one has ever accused Sean Payton of sticking with the run game for too long (well okay, I've seen it, but it's rare). Given that, if Drew throws the ball 35 times or less it just tell us the running game is working and the defense is playing well. And not surprisingly, we win.

The age old debate is whether it's worth it to stick with the running game when it ISN'T working that well to keep the defense "honest." So an interesting stat would be our W/L record when we run the ball 20 times but average less than 4 yard per carry. Or something like that. Actually, I'd be interested in that stat for any NFL team, since there's probably not a lot of instances to go by (which I think tells you something in and of itself). But even that doesn't really tell you anything if the team just ran the ball a lot because they were up 21 points...

But after doing some simple googling, it seems like others here are correct. All rushing attempts tells you, are that teams are already winning.

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): What Makes Teams Win? 1

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

When we see two things that appear correlated, it is natural for us to say that one causes the other. The runs come during the game, and the win comes at its conclusion. Therefore most fans and analysts assume the running causes the winning. The problem is, it usually doesn't. It's the winning that causes the running. Teams that are ahead, and likely to win, run the ball to take time off the clock and to minimize the risk of a turnover. Teams that are behind, and likely to lose, abandon the run in favor of the pass. Statistics can measure the correlation, but it can't determine the direction of causation.

 

[Saint Kamara]

I don't think it's meaningful because it's not surprising.

I am sorry but I had to stop reading at this point.