Brain dump heading into Week 12 (1 Viewer)

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Morning, Just wanted to do a quick brain dump of mental notes I've taken during the season.



- The Joker RB role will have to be upgraded. When teams play us cover/tampa 2 and force us to dink and dunk we need the ability to have a good seam TE and or a RB that can take advantage. The seam route has disappeared with Fleener. Perhaps another year will help but because as of now his performance as the Joker TE is average and Cadet as the Joker RB is poor we will need to find an above average to average Joker RB.

- Our 3rd down pass rush is missing juice from the edge. With Rankins, Fairley, Oneymata, and Davison collapsing the interior consistently there needs to be DE that can take advantage of it consistently. It's not Kruger nor Edebali and Kikaha is lagniappe coming off a knee injury. More than anything as much as DA likes to blitz, he likes to send 3/4 to balance it out. He's not a live by the blitz, die by the blitz kind of guy. He's a calculated blitzer which means he'll play passive at times. In those situations you need a speed edge guy that can take advantage of the confusion/temporary 1 on 1 the disguised blitzes/coverage make available.

- We need a competent #2 CB. The team wants to play Breaux as the boundary CB. Meaning he has his skills and the sideline to help him defend a #2 WR while they rotate safety help over to the #1 WR and field CB. That way they can lockdown a #2, Double a #1, and force the 3rd option on most plays. More than anything when Breaux goes down the level of drop off for what we want to do is too big. Based on what Allen has done since Breaux has been back/Sterling Moore got up to speed you can tell not having at least 2 decent CB handcuffs his ability to dial up blitzes. Bring back Moore and another FA signing along with PJ Williams and I'll feel better about our depth/redundancy at outside CB.

- Guard specifically RG needs to be addressed in a big way. Jahri is performing admirably in a phone booth. Not so much in space. He no longer has the athletic ability to pull/get down field/ reach 2nd level blockers on time. An upgrade here would aid our run game and possibly bring back the screen game.

-Payton's eyes are deceiving him with certain talents. Spiller/Fleener aren't/didn't fit what Payton said he saw on film. He needs to be smarter with FA signings on offense going forward. If it were me I'd sign Reggie and a OG in FA based on

A - Rousher has shown that he can coach guys up making OG a safe FA signing
B - Reggie is going to translate both in what he can do, and learning the offense making him a safe signing.

- We are obviously expecting a playoff run or Armstead should have been IR'd a long time ago. Why we have such a big investment playing on a bum knee is a bit questionable but understandable based on what appears to be high regards for this particular team. Regardless he needs to heal.

-For the last 3-4 years we've been a certain type of team AWAY and a certain type of team at HOME. This two game stretch is the perfect opportunity to get to 500 and gain momentum/fix things. You can contribute this to O and Dline. The Dline is on its way to being fixed sans an edge rusher. If you've noticed the D has played well in recent weeks no matter home or away(eyeball test but numbers could prove me wrong). There is a little more consistency there as the talent has gotten better. The oline is still inconsistent and will continue to be until you get a healthy Armstead and a legit RG.

-McMahon will go very quietly. SP respects that man enough not to just outright fire him. If you want him to be fired right now it wont happen. IF you just wanted him to do something about the issue well he's well on his way. No different than allowing Ryan Pace to walk, hiring new scouts, and hiring Ireland. 1st step is admitting which he's done but the process/hand off takes time.

- I'm petrified that we'll try to make a FA splash this offseason. I'd prefer we stick to grizzled vets working on their 3rd/4th contracts vs their 2nd. The sexy pick would be to throw money at Jamie Collins and let Ellerbe walk. I think it would be a mistake. WLB was filled in nicely by Robertson, Stupar in his absence. Its the least of our worries. We've got to get Anthony on the right train. Him winning his position back puts Stupar/Robertson back on ST's which helps that Unit as well. I'd still maybe spend a late rounder or sign a UDFA LB to groom but Anthony needs to be brought along and quickly. He'd be the only upgrade necessary to the LB corps this offseason.

- Resigning Fairley should be top of the list. I've noticed that Rankins has been Davisons platoon partner and Onyemata has been the sub to Fairley meaning Rankins is seen as a passrushing NT at this point in his career. Gives us flexibility and doesn't force him to play 3Tech right now.

- I like Coleman but 4th WR can be upgraded. He could use a little competition for his roster spot. If you are only getting 2-4 targets a game and you drop 2 of the 4 that's an issue. Way too many dislodged/dropped balls. He and Fleeners inability to catch/hold on to balls in traffic are the main reason our seam routes have disappeared. Neither one will take a big hit and retain possession at a high rate...much more likely to be incomplete with the occasional "Good catch"

Regards,
Ellias

 

[Saintscuffy]

I am really starting to question Payton's talent evaluation skills (or is it his undying belief in his system--which begins and ends with Drew Brees, not Payton). Ireland has been very good, but I think the saints need to keep improving their talent evaluation department (both internal evaluation and players they are bringing in).

We have to solidify both the OLine and DLine. I'm all in favor of resigning Fairley, but they need to continue to upgrade the depth and another DE is needed.

Regardless of anything else, the saints need to have continuity in their defensive system/philosophy. I think they're building a defense, just have to stop getting players for one scheme and then switching to another. Talent developers at assistant coach positions are in desperate need of upgrading, though.

 

[Eman5805]

That comment about Coleman has me thinking Bucky Hodges is a name to remember. On a phone so can't dive deep into who. But big WR/TE hybrid with Jimmy Graham speed outta Virginia Tech.

 

[DaveXA]

Until your post, I've never heard of a Joker TE/Joker RB. I guess I thought I knew football, lol.

As for the rest, don't have any bit problem with your thoughts, but the 3rd down pass rush will come. We were getting a good push, but Cam has a lot of mobility, so that adds an extra layer of responsibility for the DEs because they have to worry so much more about keeping Cam corralled in the pocket. I think we'll get there in time.

Remember these guys are young, and I think in some ways are still trying to figure out how to best play in Allen's style of defense. I think it comes together next season if we keep this group in the front 7.

Agreed on Evans. He had trouble getting to the 2nd level, and the Panthers linebackers were beating him to the punch every time. Frustrating to see how much mobility he's lost because he used to be amazing at it. Glad he's helping where he can, but he's not the same.

I do hope McMahon does go. I'd rather sooner than later, but eh, Payton will do what he has to do. Not a fan of this at all.

I wouldn't mind a FA splash, but I don't see any huge holes when we're fully healthy. We do need quality depth for not only injuries, but also for special teams where the talent is average if not poor.

Pretty good thoughts though.

 

[LoE]

Responses inline.

- The Joker RB role will have to be upgraded - agree. I have faith in Daniel Lasco, but we need another back. Not sure whether to draft or go free agency for this one.

- Our 3rd down pass rush is missing juice from the edge - draft a pass rushing DE in the 2nd. Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley, Deatrich Wise Jr, Charles Harris, or Ryan Anderson.

- We need a competent #2 CB - draft a future pro bowler CB in the 3rd, Chidobe Awuzie.

- Guard specifically RG needs to be addressed in a big way - sign Kevin Zeitler from Cincy in free agency.

- Resigning Fairley should be top of the list - resigning Fairley is a priority. But also draft Tanzel Smart from Tulane, in the 7th, to backup/rotate Tyeler Davison.

- I like Coleman but 4th WR can be upgraded - draft Malachi Dupre in the 4th.

- The seam route has disappeared with Fleener - draft Gerard Everett from South Alabama in the 6th.

Last but not least - draft Reuben Foster in the 1st round to be the 3-down linebacker of the future.

 

[LoE]

That comment about Coleman has me thinking Bucky Hodges is a name to remember. On a phone so can't dive deep into who. But big WR/TE hybrid with Jimmy Graham speed outta Virginia Tech.

That's actually the thing that worries me the least. Because we have a secret weapon stashed away on the practice squad from Ball State (same school as Willie Snead). He looked amazing in preseason, and I think he's a future starter.

Jordan Williams-Lambert.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

That's actually the thing that worries me the least. Because we have a secret weapon stashed away on the practice squad - who looked amazing in preseason, and I think he's a future starter.

Jordan Williams-Lambert.

Forgot about him. He did look solid.

 

[5thDeadlyVenom]

- We need a competent #2 CB. The team wants to play Breaux as the boundary CB. Meaning he has his skills and the sideline to help him defend a #2 WR while they rotate safety help over to the #1 WR and field CB. That way they can lockdown a #2, Double a #1, and force the 3rd option on most plays. More than anything when Breaux goes down the level of drop off for what we want to do is too big. Based on what Allen has done since Breaux has been back/Sterling Moore got up to speed you can tell not having at least 2 decent CB handcuffs his ability to dial up blitzes. Bring back Moore and another FA signing along with PJ Williams and I'll feel better about our depth/redundancy at outside CB.

Nice post. In regards to this section I quoted, I believe this team still needs a true stud #1 CB, with Breaux filling out the competent #2 role. After the 2013 season, we thought we had that with Keenan Lewis and looked how well that turned out. I don't feel like Breaux has done enough in his limited time to prove that he's the guy either.

 

[Whodat GT]

Morning, Just wanted to do a quick brain dump of mental notes I've taken during the season.



- The Joker RB role will have to be upgraded. When teams play us cover/tampa 2 and force us to dink and dunk we need the ability to have a good seam TE and or a RB that can take advantage.

- Our 3rd down pass rush is missing juice from the edge.


-McMahon will go very quietly. SP respects that man enough not to just outright fire him. If you want him to be fired right now it wont happen. IF you just wanted him to do something about the issue well he's well on his way. No different than allowing Ryan Pace to walk, hiring new scouts, and hiring Ireland. 1st step is admitting which he's done but the process/hand off takes time.

- I'm petrified that we'll try to make a FA splash this offseason. I'd prefer we stick to grizzled vets working on their 3rd/4th contracts vs their 2nd. The sexy pick would be to throw money at Jamie Collins and let Ellerbe walk. I think it would be a mistake. WLB was filled in nicely by Robertson, Stupar in his absence. Its the least of our worries. We've got to get Anthony on the right train. Him winning his position back puts Stupar/Robertson back on ST's which helps that Unit as well. I'd still maybe spend a late rounder or sign a UDFA LB to groom but Anthony needs to be brought along and quickly. He'd be the only upgrade necessary to the LB corps this offseason.

Ellias

Thanks for the analysis. Here are questions, observations based on what you wrote.

I´ve been wanting to talk about this before, but I don´t normally post reflect on past mistakes, but... letting Sproles go has to be the biggest mistake Payton has ever made in terms of personnel decisions.

I think the pass rush should be addressed through the draft and in FA. I saw failure to seal the edge at the beginning of the year, not so much now. A sideline to sideline Lber is a must as well.

I still haven´t seen proof that the ST blunders are either because of bad blocking or because Lutz kicks low line drives.

One question: I think a major problem for this defense has been dropping into zone coverage. I´ve seen a lot of missed assignments and miscommunication. Do you think another year in the system fixes that?

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Responses inline.

- The Joker RB role will have to be upgraded - agree. I have faith in Daniel Lasco, but we need another back. Not sure whether to draft or go free agency for this one.

Lasco is not a WR/RB. He's a RB that can catch out of the backfield with 4.4 speed.

- Our 3rd down pass rush is missing juice from the edge - draft a pass rushing DE in the 2nd. Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley, Deatrich Wise Jr, Charles Harris, or Ryan Anderson.

I'm on the Carl Lawson bandwagon. DA's alignments typically put the Weakside DE in 1 on 1 positions with good angles. Lawson has the best burst off the ball and the presence of Kruger as a base end with allow him to be a 3rd down rusher while he develops as a run defender. DA also will stand up his rusher at times.

- We need a competent #2 CB - draft a future pro bowler CB in the 3rd, Chidobe Awuzie.

Breaux, Williams, Crawley, Harris will all have 2 years or less of experience. The Awuzie kid is/will probably be good but I believe in a scheme thats mostly zone based we'd benefit from getting a veteran DB here. Lots of communication by the DB's and they all need to see the same thing. I do not trust a rookie to make that transition easily. Then there is simply the fact of the competition he'll be facing will all have a year or 2 i n the scheme. The likelyhood a rookie CB cracks the top 4 is small. Seems more logical to use a 5th or later on a CB

- Guard specifically RG needs to be addressed in a big way - sign Kevin Zeitler from Cincy in free agency.

I'm with this. Zeitlers age/movement skills are appealing. The fact that he's working on his 2nd contract scares me. I was hoping maybe TJ Lang but Zeitler would have to be a target much like JR Sweezy was early last year.

- Resigning Fairley should be top of the list - resigning Fairley is a priority. But also draft Tanzel Smart from Tulane, in the 7th, to backup/rotate Tyeler Davison.

I don't think we'd need him for rotation purposes more so than just having a true backup at NT. Jenkins became expendable because of the Role Rankins will play at a passrushing NT behind Davison. Yet the range to me fits but I'd probably say a UDFA works here. Lately those 7th rounders have been used on ST's value.

- I like Coleman but 4th WR can be upgraded - draft Malachi Dupre in the 4th.

Dupree is small I'd have questions over his ability to take a hit over the middle. Like the Jordan Lambert kid. Forgot about him. The idea here is someone with a bigger body that can take a hit.

- The seam route has disappeared with Fleener - draft Gerard Everett from South Alabama in the 6th.

Haven't done in depth draft searches yet but the value for 6th rounder seems about right for another developmental TE

Last but not least - draft Reuben Foster in the 1st round to be the 3-down linebacker of the future.

A bit too early to give up on Anthony and Robertson has done enough to suggest you could go with him for another year if Anthony doesn't pan out. Simply too quick to put two 1st rounders into the MLB position

[\QUOTE]



Attempted to maintain format.

 

[IceHot]

We definitely need more competition for Coleman in camp. We had Kyle Prater but lost him due to injury (IR).

 

[SaintJ]

- We need a competent #2 CB. The team wants to play Breaux as the boundary CB. Meaning he has his skills and the sideline to help him defend a #2 WR while they rotate safety help over to the #1 WR and field CB. That way they can lockdown a #2, Double a #1, and force the 3rd option on most plays. More than anything when Breaux goes down the level of drop off for what we want to do is too big. Based on what Allen has done since Breaux has been back/Sterling Moore got up to speed you can tell not having at least 2 decent CB handcuffs his ability to dial up blitzes. Bring back Moore and another FA signing along with PJ Williams and I'll feel better about our depth/redundancy at outside CB.

Bring back Moore, hope PJ is healthy and this feels like maybe a target for a first round pick.

- Guard specifically RG needs to be addressed in a big way. Jahri is performing admirably in a phone booth. Not so much in space. He no longer has the athletic ability to pull/get down field/ reach 2nd level blockers on time. An upgrade here would aid our run game and possibly bring back the screen game.

I always like picking OL, but to me this is a draft issue, not a FA issue.

-Payton's eyes are deceiving him with certain talents. Spiller/Fleener aren't/didn't fit what Payton said he saw on film. He needs to be smarter with FA signings on offense going forward. If it were me I'd sign Reggie and a OG in FA based on

Only if the OG is cheap. The romantic part of me would love to see Reggie back, but he would have to show me a lot in a workout, because I don't think he's got anything left. Also, at his age, the injury risk.....

-McMahon will go very quietly. SP respects that man enough not to just outright fire him. If you want him to be fired right now it wont happen. IF you just wanted him to do something about the issue well he's well on his way. No different than allowing Ryan Pace to walk, hiring new scouts, and hiring Ireland. 1st step is admitting which he's done but the process/hand off takes time.

Spot on. Payton is vastly underrated as a manager of people; hell, he held onto Rob Ryan WAAAAAY too long. Despite our hunger for revenge, McMahon does not deserve to be embarassed.

- I'm petrified that we'll try to make a FA splash this offseason.

I am about 80% positive we've finally learned our lesson. But only 80%.

Resigning Fairley should be top of the list. I've noticed that Rankins has been Davisons platoon partner and Onyemata has been the sub to Fairley meaning Rankins is seen as a passrushing NT at this point in his career. Gives us flexibility and doesn't force him to play 3Tech right now.

I am about 75% confident that Fairly wouldn't tail off the minute he got a big contract. But only 75%.

I like Coleman but 4th WR can be upgraded. He could use a little competition for his roster spot. If you are only getting 2-4 targets a game and you drop 2 of the 4 that's an issue. Way too many dislodged/dropped balls. He and Fleeners inability to catch/hold on to balls in traffic are the main reason our seam routes have disappeared. Neither one will take a big hit and retain possession at a high rate...much more likely to be incomplete with the occasional "Good catch"

I refuse to wait for one of these guys to break my heart with a big fourth down drop on a ball right in their hands in a must win game.

 

[LoE]

Responses inline.

- The Joker RB role will have to be upgraded - agree. I have faith in Daniel Lasco, but we need another back. Not sure whether to draft or go free agency for this one.

Lasco is not a WR/RB. He's a RB that can catch out of the backfield with 4.4 speed.

- Our 3rd down pass rush is missing juice from the edge - draft a pass rushing DE in the 2nd. Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley, Deatrich Wise Jr, Charles Harris, or Ryan Anderson.

I'm on the Carl Lawson bandwagon. DA's alignments typically put the Weakside DE in 1 on 1 positions with good angles. Lawson has the best burst off the ball and the presence of Kruger as a base end with allow him to be a 3rd down rusher while he develops as a run defender. DA also will stand up his rusher at times.

- We need a competent #2 CB - draft a future pro bowler CB in the 3rd, Chidobe Awuzie.

Breaux, Williams, Crawley, Harris will all have 2 years or less of experience. The Awuzie kid is/will probably be good but I believe in a scheme thats mostly zone based we'd benefit from getting a veteran DB here. Lots of communication by the DB's and they all need to see the same thing. I do not trust a rookie to make that transition easily. Then there is simply the fact of the competition he'll be facing will all have a year or 2 i n the scheme. The likelyhood a rookie CB cracks the top 4 is small. Seems more logical to use a 5th or later on a CB

- Guard specifically RG needs to be addressed in a big way - sign Kevin Zeitler from Cincy in free agency.

I'm with this. Zeitlers age/movement skills are appealing. The fact that he's working on his 2nd contract scares me. I was hoping maybe TJ Lang but Zeitler would have to be a target much like JR Sweezy was early last year.

- Resigning Fairley should be top of the list - resigning Fairley is a priority. But also draft Tanzel Smart from Tulane, in the 7th, to backup/rotate Tyeler Davison.

I don't think we'd need him for rotation purposes more so than just having a true backup at NT. Jenkins became expendable because of the Role Rankins will play at a passrushing NT behind Davison. Yet the range to me fits but I'd probably say a UDFA works here. Lately those 7th rounders have been used on ST's value.

- I like Coleman but 4th WR can be upgraded - draft Malachi Dupre in the 4th.

Dupree is small I'd have questions over his ability to take a hit over the middle. Like the Jordan Lambert kid. Forgot about him. The idea here is someone with a bigger body that can take a hit.

- The seam route has disappeared with Fleener - draft Gerard Everett from South Alabama in the 6th.

Haven't done in depth draft searches yet but the value for 6th rounder seems about right for another developmental TE

Last but not least - draft Reuben Foster in the 1st round to be the 3-down linebacker of the future.

A bit too early to give up on Anthony and Robertson has done enough to suggest you could go with him for another year if Anthony doesn't pan out. Simply too quick to put two 1st rounders into the MLB position

[\QUOTE]

Attempted to maintain format.

Damn. You just shot down all of my ideas. Thought I had it all figured out.

Was there anything in there I said that you agreed with? Other than Zeitler?

 

[crosswatt]

The one I've been paying attention to the past couple of weeks, that I think would make a great Joker running back, is Jeremy McNichols from Boise State. To me, he looks like if Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles had a kid.

Right now, he is the NCAA yards from scrimmage leader this season.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Thanks for the analysis. Here are questions, observations based on what you wrote.

I´ve been wanting to talk about this before, but I don´t normally post reflect on past mistakes, but... letting Sproles go has to be the biggest mistake Payton has ever made in terms of personnel decisions.

I think the pass rush should be addressed through the draft and in FA. I saw failure to seal the edge at the beginning of the year, not so much now. A sideline to sideline Lber is a must as well.

I still haven´t seen proof that the ST blunders are either because of bad blocking or because Lutz kicks low line drives.

One question: I think a major problem for this defense has been dropping into zone coverage. I´ve seen a lot of missed assignments and miscommunication. Do you think another year in the system fixes that?

-The heavy use of Zone coverage is exactly why I'm more of a fan of signing a vet FA corner. Rookie CB's tend to come in with solid ability in man but they typically all need adjustment to zone concepts. Communication is key and the more these guys play together the better they will get.

- I do think letting Sproles go was a bad decision but at that point Sproles was a luxury. We had two above average Jokers in he and Graham. You only need one of them to be very good. Fleener is Average. An average Joker (Reggie at this point in his career) would be enough due to the fact that our WR corps is stronger than its every been under SP.

-I think the draft would be the spot for a passrusher. I think bringing back Kruger would be ideal at the very least he's your starting base DE which would allow him to give way to a 3rd down rusher. Call me crazy but he's a former Raven...he and Ellerbe just bring intangibles to me and the FA class of DE's isn't anything spectacular next year. Our best FA moves at that position might just be extending Kruger and perhaps resigning Edebali.

- ST's blunders are a little of both. Protection not holding up, Kicker line driving the ball, coaching staff not doing a great job of teaching there.

- Anthony is a sideline to sideline MLB and is the ace in the hole. The LB corps can be upgraded just by teaming he and Ellerbe together. Its a little too early to give up on him and 3rd year is usually the charm. Knowing that Robertson + Ellerbe is at least an average duo I don't think you need to go out and sign anyone other than for depth. I think you put all your resources into developing Anthony. Worst case scenario injuries force Ellerbe to MLB and Stupar to WLB and it's still a competent unit thats better than anything we fielded since 2009.