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First, I don't normally post on message boards, but I often read opponents boards the week leading up to the game, and this one is the best and most active I've seen. Second, I love your damn city. Lifelong Tampa Bay resident, but I've been to New Orleans a dozen times, including last February, which was my first Mardi Gras.
I know you hate hearing it, but this is a different team than you pistol whipped in week nine. Not all of that is due to strength of opponents. The Bucs have the second ranked offense in EPA since week 10. And DVOA, which is opponent adjusted, has the Bucs as the #3 ranked offense in the league.
All that being said, NO is a bad matchup for us. Up the gut pressure is Brady's kryptonite, and with Cappa out at RG, Rankins and Umenyiora are going to be hell on Sunday. I don't expect to be able to run the ball all that well, especially if Jones is out(Not a Fournette fan), so Brady could have a rough day. I do think the Bucs and Byron Leftwich have figured out some things that help with that, mainly pre-snap motion, play action, and some max protects to counter the blitzes. The OL has been pretty good despite what you've seen in the two games with the Saints this year. I do think the Bucs offense has been humming lately, again...I know who we played, but Redskins have a damn good defense(3rd in DVOA right behind the Saints) and we rang up 500 yards and 31 points and would have had more if we didn't suck in the RZ. Brady looks really comfortable lately, and the emergence of Antonio Brown in the offense has helped a ton.
Defensively, my eyeballs tell me the Bucs have an average defense, but the advanced stats crowd likes them quite a bit. Losing Vita Vea up the middle really hurt. The Buc fans are begging Bowles to ditch the zone heavy packages this week, but I don't think it's that simple. The Bucs have to tackle way better than they have recently against the Saints. We're great against the run, but very average against the pass. Oh, and before I forget, I freaking love the Saints OL. New Orleans front office is so good at drafting.
I can't think of much more to add, other than a prediction. Gun to my head, I think it's a closer game than many of you probably do, but I think the Saints win something like 34-24 with a late score to pull away from a close game. Ya'll stay safe.
I know you hate hearing it, but this is a different team than you pistol whipped in week nine. Not all of that is due to strength of opponents. The Bucs have the second ranked offense in EPA since week 10. And DVOA, which is opponent adjusted, has the Bucs as the #3 ranked offense in the league.
All that being said, NO is a bad matchup for us. Up the gut pressure is Brady's kryptonite, and with Cappa out at RG, Rankins and Umenyiora are going to be hell on Sunday. I don't expect to be able to run the ball all that well, especially if Jones is out(Not a Fournette fan), so Brady could have a rough day. I do think the Bucs and Byron Leftwich have figured out some things that help with that, mainly pre-snap motion, play action, and some max protects to counter the blitzes. The OL has been pretty good despite what you've seen in the two games with the Saints this year. I do think the Bucs offense has been humming lately, again...I know who we played, but Redskins have a damn good defense(3rd in DVOA right behind the Saints) and we rang up 500 yards and 31 points and would have had more if we didn't suck in the RZ. Brady looks really comfortable lately, and the emergence of Antonio Brown in the offense has helped a ton.
Defensively, my eyeballs tell me the Bucs have an average defense, but the advanced stats crowd likes them quite a bit. Losing Vita Vea up the middle really hurt. The Buc fans are begging Bowles to ditch the zone heavy packages this week, but I don't think it's that simple. The Bucs have to tackle way better than they have recently against the Saints. We're great against the run, but very average against the pass. Oh, and before I forget, I freaking love the Saints OL. New Orleans front office is so good at drafting.
I can't think of much more to add, other than a prediction. Gun to my head, I think it's a closer game than many of you probably do, but I think the Saints win something like 34-24 with a late score to pull away from a close game. Ya'll stay safe.