Article Can the Saints Remain Competitive after Re-Signing Michael Thomas? (1 Viewer)

[St. Geezy]

The key to winning with an expensive WR will be simply to continue drafting well. The more great, cheap players you have on your roster, the better your chances of winning increase.

 

[SaintsJunkie]

too much for a WR, and he may be the best, but our system doesn't need the best. I don't see Sean paying that much for ANY WR

 

[blackadder]

The thing about high value WR’s.....and I’m not taking a thing away from Mike T...(he’s unbelievably good).....but champion teams very rarely have high $ WRs.

Look at the last few Super Bowl winners....and their top WR

NE-Edelman
Phil- Algalor
NE- Edelman
Den- Thomas
NE- Amendola
Sea- Baldwin
Balt- Torrey Smith
NYG- Cruz

None of those guys are top 5-10 receivers.....maybe Demario but within two years he’s basically out of the league. Not saying great WR aren’t important, but it’s very clear it’s not required to win at the highest level.

You are on the right track.

An elite WR can be a sufficient but not necessary component of winning a championship, which is the whole point of suiting up.

The Saints should keep Thomas for sure because he is young and has become an elite possession receiver. But over time to make the 20 mil a year worth it the QB play has to be there plus other ingredients. Look at the Lions with Calvin Johnson all those years. Was he enough??

No team with Randy Moss won a Super Bowl...

I could see if the QB play is not there after Brees and there are other holes on the team you might have to deal Thomas and a big salary at some point in order to upgrade other areas.

 

[Playmaker0017]

I don't buy into the "you can't win if position x makes y money".

There are really 2 trains of thought on CAP management. The first one is below and the 2nd will be in a different post:

Historically, the top teams spend at minimum 54% and at maximum 60% of their CAP on its top 10 contracts. This is the secret formula of the CAP.

The secret salary cap formula successful NFL teams rely on

For NFL teams, it’s not just about staying under the salary cap, it’s also about keeping your salaries balanced.

www.google.com

As it turns out, a lot of the best teams play a pretty dangerous game: the more you spend on your top 10 salaries, the better your team is going to be ... right up until you’ve spent too much.
The goal is apparently to get as close as possible to 60 percent without going over. If you get that ratio right and keep the right players healthy — obviously the former is a little bit more in your control than the latter — you have passed the roster balance test.

The art of salary cap balance

PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
0-39%	13	4.8	-88.9	28.9
40-43%	30	6.4	-42.3	15.1
44-47%	51	8.0	+0.2	13.0
48-51%	46	8.3	+22.2	15.0
52-55%	50	8.9	+26.0	15.3
56-59%	26	9.2	+28.4	24.0
60+%	8	5.5	-89.5	22.9

In terms of the cap percentage occupied by your top 10, eight teams finished 2017 at between 50 and 59 percent; six of them ended up with a positive scoring margin: Minnesota (plus-130), Pittsburgh (plus-98), the Los Angeles Chargers(plus-83), Kansas City (plus-76), Atlanta (plus-38), and Detroit (plus-34). Three of those six (the Vikings, Chargers, and Lions) were particularly improved in 2017, raising their scoring margin by at least 46 points each.

As always, one should note that correlation is not causation. Simply attempting to approach a certain distribution is not what made certain teams good — success is at least a partial result of both staying healthy and, again, having good players on rookie contracts.

The annual exception: The New England Patriots
If we look at teams by win total, we see that those who spent a little more on those top 10 players, and keep them healthy, tended to get what they were hoping for from them.

Wins and cap management

WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
13-15	16	166.3	52.5
12	17	118.8	50.5
11	21	83.9	50.3
10	22	69.0	51.8
9	24	22.7	49.1
8	28	-14.0	49.5
7	26	-24.3	47.9
6	20	-55.8	47.4
5	14	-84.4	45.7
4	17	-125.9	46.6
0-3	19	-160.2	47.5

Focusing on just scoring margin, there’s a similar story. But in each case, there’s a Foxborough-based exception. From 2011-17, 16 teams had a scoring margin of plus-150 or higher. Six of them were the Patriots (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017).

• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (6 New England teams): 45.7 percent
• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (10 other teams with a top scoring margin): 52.1 percent

The 2011 Saints (13-3 with a plus-208 scoring margin), 2013 Broncos (13-3, plus-207), 2011 Packers (15-1, plus-207), 2012 Broncos (13-3, plus-192), and 2015 Panthers (15-1, plus-1912) averaged 14 wins and a scoring margin of plus-200. Their top 10 contracts were right in that mid-50s sweet spot: 55.3 percent.

The Patriots, meanwhile, kept right on diving into dumpsters and finding prime role players. Aside from Tom Brady and a smattering of others at times (Vince Wilfork, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Wes Welker), almost no one has taken up more than about five percent of the Pats’ cap. It works for them because Brady is Brady and Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick. But it doesn’t seem to work for most.

 

[Playmaker0017]

The 2nd CAP theory is NE’s model. I call it the million dollar theory. Every year since 2014, the two teams with the most players earning at least 1 million play in the SB (2015 is the exception).

Every year NE leads the NFL with players making over 1 million. Their roster has fewer superstars but greater far depth & balance than any other. Players 24-38 on their roster are quality guys who meet a specific need.

The Falcons are currently #2 in the NFL for million dollar players at 30. Still 10 behind the Patriots but moving in the right direction

 

[TribuneUK]

There are really 2 trains of thought on CAP management. The first one is below and the 2nd will be in a different post:

Historically, the top teams spend at minimum 54% and at maximum 60% of their CAP on its top 10 contracts. This is the secret formula of the CAP.

The secret salary cap formula successful NFL teams rely on

For NFL teams, it’s not just about staying under the salary cap, it’s also about keeping your salaries balanced.

www.google.com

As it turns out, a lot of the best teams play a pretty dangerous game: the more you spend on your top 10 salaries, the better your team is going to be ... right up until you’ve spent too much.
The goal is apparently to get as close as possible to 60 percent without going over. If you get that ratio right and keep the right players healthy — obviously the former is a little bit more in your control than the latter — you have passed the roster balance test.

The art of salary cap balance

PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
0-39%	13	4.8	-88.9	28.9
40-43%	30	6.4	-42.3	15.1
44-47%	51	8.0	+0.2	13.0
48-51%	46	8.3	+22.2	15.0
52-55%	50	8.9	+26.0	15.3
56-59%	26	9.2	+28.4	24.0
60+%	8	5.5	-89.5	22.9

In terms of the cap percentage occupied by your top 10, eight teams finished 2017 at between 50 and 59 percent; six of them ended up with a positive scoring margin: Minnesota (plus-130), Pittsburgh (plus-98), the Los Angeles Chargers(plus-83), Kansas City (plus-76), Atlanta (plus-38), and Detroit (plus-34). Three of those six (the Vikings, Chargers, and Lions) were particularly improved in 2017, raising their scoring margin by at least 46 points each.

As always, one should note that correlation is not causation. Simply attempting to approach a certain distribution is not what made certain teams good — success is at least a partial result of both staying healthy and, again, having good players on rookie contracts.

The annual exception: The New England Patriots
If we look at teams by win total, we see that those who spent a little more on those top 10 players, and keep them healthy, tended to get what they were hoping for from them.

Wins and cap management

WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
13-15	16	166.3	52.5
12	17	118.8	50.5
11	21	83.9	50.3
10	22	69.0	51.8
9	24	22.7	49.1
8	28	-14.0	49.5
7	26	-24.3	47.9
6	20	-55.8	47.4
5	14	-84.4	45.7
4	17	-125.9	46.6
0-3	19	-160.2	47.5

Focusing on just scoring margin, there’s a similar story. But in each case, there’s a Foxborough-based exception. From 2011-17, 16 teams had a scoring margin of plus-150 or higher. Six of them were the Patriots (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017).

• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (6 New England teams): 45.7 percent
• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (10 other teams with a top scoring margin): 52.1 percent

The 2011 Saints (13-3 with a plus-208 scoring margin), 2013 Broncos (13-3, plus-207), 2011 Packers (15-1, plus-207), 2012 Broncos (13-3, plus-192), and 2015 Panthers (15-1, plus-1912) averaged 14 wins and a scoring margin of plus-200. Their top 10 contracts were right in that mid-50s sweet spot: 55.3 percent.

The Patriots, meanwhile, kept right on diving into dumpsters and finding prime role players. Aside from Tom Brady and a smattering of others at times (Vince Wilfork, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Wes Welker), almost no one has taken up more than about five percent of the Pats’ cap. It works for them because Brady is Brady and Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick. But it doesn’t seem to work for most.

Fantastic posts, thank you so much for sharing.

 

[Stalwart385]

There are really 2 trains of thought on CAP management. The first one is below and the 2nd will be in a different post:

Historically, the top teams spend at minimum 54% and at maximum 60% of their CAP on its top 10 contracts. This is the secret formula of the CAP.

The secret salary cap formula successful NFL teams rely on

For NFL teams, it’s not just about staying under the salary cap, it’s also about keeping your salaries balanced.

www.google.com

As it turns out, a lot of the best teams play a pretty dangerous game: the more you spend on your top 10 salaries, the better your team is going to be ... right up until you’ve spent too much.
The goal is apparently to get as close as possible to 60 percent without going over. If you get that ratio right and keep the right players healthy — obviously the former is a little bit more in your control than the latter — you have passed the roster balance test.

The art of salary cap balance

PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10 (2011-17)	TEAMS	AVG. WINS	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	STD. ERROR (SCORING MARGIN)
0-39%	13	4.8	-88.9	28.9
40-43%	30	6.4	-42.3	15.1
44-47%	51	8.0	+0.2	13.0
48-51%	46	8.3	+22.2	15.0
52-55%	50	8.9	+26.0	15.3
56-59%	26	9.2	+28.4	24.0
60+%	8	5.5	-89.5	22.9

In terms of the cap percentage occupied by your top 10, eight teams finished 2017 at between 50 and 59 percent; six of them ended up with a positive scoring margin: Minnesota (plus-130), Pittsburgh (plus-98), the Los Angeles Chargers(plus-83), Kansas City (plus-76), Atlanta (plus-38), and Detroit (plus-34). Three of those six (the Vikings, Chargers, and Lions) were particularly improved in 2017, raising their scoring margin by at least 46 points each.

As always, one should note that correlation is not causation. Simply attempting to approach a certain distribution is not what made certain teams good — success is at least a partial result of both staying healthy and, again, having good players on rookie contracts.

The annual exception: The New England Patriots
If we look at teams by win total, we see that those who spent a little more on those top 10 players, and keep them healthy, tended to get what they were hoping for from them.

Wins and cap management

WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
WINS	TEAMS (2011-17)	AVG. SCORING MARGIN	PCT. OF CAP OCCUPIED BY TOP 10
13-15	16	166.3	52.5
12	17	118.8	50.5
11	21	83.9	50.3
10	22	69.0	51.8
9	24	22.7	49.1
8	28	-14.0	49.5
7	26	-24.3	47.9
6	20	-55.8	47.4
5	14	-84.4	45.7
4	17	-125.9	46.6
0-3	19	-160.2	47.5

Focusing on just scoring margin, there’s a similar story. But in each case, there’s a Foxborough-based exception. From 2011-17, 16 teams had a scoring margin of plus-150 or higher. Six of them were the Patriots (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017).

• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (6 New England teams): 45.7 percent
• Average percentage of cap occupied by top 10 salaries (10 other teams with a top scoring margin): 52.1 percent

The 2011 Saints (13-3 with a plus-208 scoring margin), 2013 Broncos (13-3, plus-207), 2011 Packers (15-1, plus-207), 2012 Broncos (13-3, plus-192), and 2015 Panthers (15-1, plus-1912) averaged 14 wins and a scoring margin of plus-200. Their top 10 contracts were right in that mid-50s sweet spot: 55.3 percent.

The Patriots, meanwhile, kept right on diving into dumpsters and finding prime role players. Aside from Tom Brady and a smattering of others at times (Vince Wilfork, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Wes Welker), almost no one has taken up more than about five percent of the Pats’ cap. It works for them because Brady is Brady and Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick. But it doesn’t seem to work for most.

I think this is a much better breakdown than saying a certain position can't be paid a certain amount. It takes a better look at the roster as a whole. That said, I think this line is important "correlation is not causation". It's probably just more likely to be in that range if your team isn't to top heavy or lacking blue-chip players. Which I believe is important in this league. You need a good balance of depth and difference makers.

You can have a bunch of excellent rookie contracts keeping you out of that range and be successful. Or maybe too many of those top 10 players aren't living up to their contracts even though you are in the right range. Whose to say you couldn't flex the analysis to 9 or 11 players or further. Then despite the numbers, having the right coaches, scheme and players for that scheme is also important.

I wouldn't put my accounting department in charge of building a team even though they are very important to making the right decisions in a zero-sum game.

 

[Stalwart385]

The 2nd CAP theory is NE’s model. I call it the million dollar theory. Every year since 2014, the two teams with the most players earning at least 1 million play in the SB (2015 is the exception).

Every year NE leads the NFL with players making over 1 million. Their roster has fewer superstars but greater far depth & balance than any other. Players 24-38 on their roster are quality guys who meet a specific need.

The Falcons are currently #2 in the NFL for million dollar players at 30. Still 10 behind the Patriots but moving in the right direction

I don't know if modeling NE is always the best idea. I'm not opposed to that method but not many teams can keep the top class coaching staff they keep. Not just Belichick but top down. Add a HoF QB and I think that is their formula for success more than cap management, compensatory picks, FA moves, etc.

 

[Meachemdat]

I don't know if modeling NE is always the best idea. I'm not opposed to that method but not many teams can keep the top class coaching staff they keep. Not just Belichick but top down. Add a HoF QB and I think that is their formula for success more than cap management, compensatory picks, FA moves, etc. Play in the worst division in football in the weaker league of the two leagues with no legit competition annually.

Fixed that for you

Seriously though, there is no reason we can't stay competitive we just need to start dishing out extensions like we did with Jordan instead of waiting until the 11th hour and overpaying.

If we extend Thomas, we will be pretty set for a while as long as we can fill Brees's shoes with either a rookie QB on a cheap deal, or a good QB with a slightly lower contract.
If we get these extensions done correctly now, the ever growing cap number will save us from being in the red.
As soon as you lose the locker room though, guys start looking out for "me" and want to re-do those extensions to be the highest paid at their position. (See the Falcons)

 

[Playmaker0017]

Fixed that for you

Seriously though, there is no reason we can't stay competitive we just need to start dishing out extensions like we did with Jordan instead of waiting until the 11th hour and overpaying.

If we extend Thomas, we will be pretty set for a while as long as we can fill Brees's shoes with either a rookie QB on a cheap deal, or a good QB with a slightly lower contract.
If we get these extensions done correctly now, the ever growing cap number will save us from being in the red.
As soon as you lose the locker room though, guys start looking out for "me" and want to re-do those extensions to be the highest paid at their position. (See the Falcons)

Patriots have a lower win % inside their division than out. If they were in the NFC South, they’d have the same results.

- Playoff Stat: Brady has 30 playoff wins. In NFL history only 5 franchises have more than 30 playoff wins

- Brady is the only NFL QB with more than 10,000 passing yards in the postseason (10,917 yards). That would rank 29th among active QBs in career regular-season passing yards behind Nick Foles (11,165).

 

[Meachemdat]

Patriots have a lower win % inside their division than out. If they were in the NFC South, they’d have the same results.

- Playoff Stat: Brady has 30 playoff wins. In NFL history only 5 franchises have more than 30 playoff wins

- Brady is the only NFL QB with more than 10,000 passing yards in the postseason (10,917 yards). That would rank 29th among active QBs in career regular-season passing yards behind Nick Foles (11,165).

It's easy to have those kind of postseason stats when you make the postseason by default every year.
What they've put together is amazing and probably won't be duplicated in our lifetimes, but they have had an extremely easy road. Much like the Colts had in their division while Manning was there.

 

[TribuneUK]

Patriots have a lower win % inside their division than out. If they were in the NFC South, they’d have the same results.

- Playoff Stat: Brady has 30 playoff wins. In NFL history only 5 franchises have more than 30 playoff wins

- Brady is the only NFL QB with more than 10,000 passing yards in the postseason (10,917 yards). That would rank 29th among active QBs in career regular-season passing yards behind Nick Foles (11,165).

Stop. Talking. Sense.

 

[Playmaker0017]

It's easy to have those kind of postseason stats when you make the postseason by default every year.
What they've put together is amazing and probably won't be duplicated in our lifetimes, but they have had an extremely easy road. Much like the Colts had in their division while Manning was there.

Considering they always earn a 1st round bye, their playoff games are against great teams every single year. They don’t get to clean up in Wild Card Weekend.

Consider this: Favre is 3rd all time with 5,300 playoff passing yards. I am closer to catching Favre for career playoff yards than Favre is to catching Brady

 

[WhoDat_SB44]

I’ve been saying this all along. The most successful teams do not have a receiver taking up a good chunk of their cap. It’s just not a successful business model when it comes to the NFL. Successful teams spend most of their money on a QB, offensive line, defensive line, and in the secondary. The only way I would spend high dollar on a receiver is if you have a QB on a rookie contract. I don’t think we can spend the money it will take to keep both Thomas & Kamara and still be a perennial playoff team. Do I want to have him a Saint for the rest of his career, yes I do. Is it a smart business move, I’m sorry but it’s not.

 

[Playmaker0017]

I’ve been saying this all along. The most successful teams do not have a receiver taking up a good chunk of their cap. It’s just not a successful business model when it comes to the NFL. Successful teams spend most of their money on a QB, offensive line, defensive
line, and in the secondary. The only way I would spend high dollar on a receiver is if you have a QB on a rookie contract. I don’t think we can spend the money it will take to keep both Thomas & Kamara and still be a perennial playoff team. Do I want to have him a Saint for the rest of his career, yes I do. Is it a smart business move, I’m sorry but it’s not.

I believe the model is changing a bit. Instead of DL I would prioritize the secondary. The Patriots refuse to pay lineman since Wilfork was released. It was a paradigm shift for NE but nobody followed.

Patriots are ranked 27th in OL spending and 28th in DL. It’s been that way for them going back to 2014. BB has 11 guys making over 1 million in his secondary next year.