Canuckredux breaks down the top 10 v.1.0 (1 Viewer)

[canuckredux]

I've looked over team needs in the top 10 to get an idea of who will take who and what the most sensible move for each team would be, because, a: I love the draft, and b: because I'd like to get an idea as to who might be available when we pick. Some of the calls in here might seem a bit foolish, but, based on team needs, they look to be the most sensible picks and are who the teams might logically look to take.

1. Miami

Offence: 28
Passing: 24
Rushing: 23

Defence: 23
Passing: 4
Rushing: 32

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Chris Long, Jake Long
The pick: Matt Ryan

With his risk of injury, the 3-4 scheme they run and the high bust potential of DTs in the draft, Miami may shy away from Glenn Dorsey, even though he is simply the best player at their biggest area of need. It's just not common for DTs to go #1 overall. In the early 90's, Russell Maryland, Steve Emtman and Dan Wilkinson were top picks, but none of them really lived up to their billing and it was also a dark time for NFL talent. Miami may look to trade down from this spot, but without a consensus #1 player that has teams drooling, it might be difficult to find a trading partner. With that in mind, Miami looks to rebuild its team by selecting Matt Ryan as the face of their franchise. Even though they invested a 2nd round pick in John Beck last year, this is a new regime with Bill Parcells taking over the helm. The last time Parcells held the #1 overall pick, he took Drew Bledsoe, so there is a precedent. Even though Matt Ryan may not necessarily be the best player overall, his stock has been rising his senior season and with good showings at the Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Day, Ryan could catapult himself into this spot.

Trade potential: Moderate. They probably want to deal this pick, but finding someone to pay the price is hard. Don't rule out the possibility of moving the pick to Cleveland, who's got to be eyeballing McFadden and the Browns have QBs to deal, in Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, who the Dolphins passed over in favour of Ted Ginn. With the depth at RB this year and the fact that the Browns don't have any urgency to deal a QB, such a scenario would be a big stretch.

2. St. Louis

Offence: 24
Passing: 19
Rushing: 25

Defence: 21
Passing: 21
Rushing: 20

The candidates: Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey
The pick: Jake Long

This pick makes a lot of sense. Orlando Pace can't stay healthy and that line allowed 48 sacks last season, 6th most in the league. They have needs on both sides of the ball, but their offence, when healthy and running on all motors, is their strongest asset and a player of Long's ability to step in and start from day 1 and anchor the line is the best thing they can do to get the full potential out of that group. Glenn Dorsey would also be tempting, but since they just spent a 1st round pick on Adam Carriker, they don't have as big a need at DT.

Trade potential: Low. This team is better than their record and their need for a key player in the trenches could play a huge role in their turnaround.

3. Atlanta

Offence: 23
Passing: 18
Rushing: 26

Defence: 29
Passing: 23
Rushing: 26

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
The pick: Brian Brohm

The Michael Vick situation has been both an offensive and public relations nightmare. With no QB stepping up in his absence and only castoffs Chris Redman, Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington compiling the NFLs deepest cast of "Who's who isn'ts", they select golden boy Brian Brohm, who, until the emergence of Matt Ryan, was the consensus #1 QB in the nation. If he can stay healthy, Brohm might even end up being the better pro. They will be tempted by Glenn Dorsey here, but the need for a frachise signal-caller is their top priority. Darren McFadden is also a BIG consideration here, and as I'm typing this, I'm tempted to put him in here (much to the dismay of myself and all Saints fans) but being that he's had some off-field issues and that RB isn't their biggest area of need, they might want to shy away and they take Brohm.

Trade potential: Moderate. They may be willing to shell out a few extra picks or players to ensure they get Matt Ryan, but what will the Dolphins ask for in return?

4. Oakland

Offence: 25
Passing: 31
Rushing: 6

Defence: 22
Passing: 8
Rushing: 31

The candidates: Darren McFadden, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
The pick: Glenn Dorsey

31st against the run. Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison are 2 of your LBs, so no problem there. Warren Sapp is nearing the end of his career. Glenn Dorsey is considered by many to be the best player in the whole draft. We all know Al's love of athletic freaks, so Vernon Gholston will certainly be given a long look and may end up being the pick, but Dorsey is a specimen in his own right and, from the standpoint of stopping the run, is the more sensible pick... which probably means that Gholston will be the guy. If they don't re-sign Justin Fargas, then you might see Darren McFadden being the pick here,
but rumour has it that they want him back. RB isn't their biggest need, having finished 6th in the league, so re-signing Fargas, developing Michael Bush and addressing their defence would be the best thing for them.

Trade potential: Low. Al Davis is too tough a negotiator for his own good and he'll have trouble finding a trade partner who wants to talk to him. Plus, he'll be in perfect position to get what he wants at this pick.

5. Kansas City

Offence: 31
Passing: 20
Rushing: 32

Defence: 13
Passing: 5
Rushing: 28

The candidates: Ryan Clady, Andre Woodson, Darren McFadden
The pick: Sedrick Ellis

This pick really came down to a question of need versus talent. There's no denying that the 28th run defence is nothing to brag about, especially when you might have the NFL's most talented trio of LBs in Derrick Johnson, Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris, not to mention run-stuffing machine superfreak Jared Allen at DE, so obviously DT is a need. But also of need: An offensive line. This unit gave up a league-high 55 sacks and their rushing attack was last in the league, so Ryan Clady will garner a lot of attention here, but Sedrick Ellis, if available, is just too much better a player than Clady, so he is the pick. Don't rule out a quarterback, either, as Andre Woodson would be very tempting, but Brodie Croyle has done a serviceable job and it’s early in his career.

Trade potential: Moderate. With McFadden still on the board, teams will start to call KC. With Dorsey off the board, they might look to trade down a few spots and take either Clady or Ellis.

6. New York Jets

Offence: 26
Passing: 25
Rushing: 19

Defence: 18
Passing: 9
Rushing: 29

The candidates: Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston
The pick: Chris Long

How do you pass on Darren McFadden? When you have the deepest draft at RB in years, then it's pretty easy. Not to mention that they have Thomas Jones and Leon Washington already and their run defence ranked 29th in the league last year. Chris Long is an equally adept pass-rusher and run stopper; He's one of those rare 3-4 DEs that would be justified with this high a pick. If anyone has any doubts about the value of the position, have a look at Richard Seymour. Long has experience in Virginia's 3-4 defence and would make a smooth transition to the Jets.

Trade potential: Low. They do have a history of making moves in the draft, with trading up to get Darrelle Revis last year and negotiating the previous year to try to get Reggie Bush. Of course, these were upward moves and sitting at #6, the Jets will be in a position to draft an impact player without trading up. Trade down? Not unless they want to get torn apart by the hostile hometown crowd who have become bitter over decades of draft day blunders.

7. New England (f/SF)

Offence: 1
Passing: 1
Rushing: 13

Defence: 4
Passing: 6
Rushing: 10

The candidates: Kenny Phillips, Darren McFadden, Ryan Clady, Keith Rivers, Dan Connor, Vernon Gholston
The pick: Aqib Talib

What do you get for the guy that has everything? If the draft unfolds like this, then probably even more, as you are likely to hear lots of trade discussions for teams that want to leap up and grab Darren McFadden or Vernon Gholston. If they keep the pick, look for New England to take Talib, a big, physical corner who they can groom as the replacement for Asante Samuel, should he leave in free agency. Gholston's a possibility to play the OLB spot and shift Vrabel inside should Junior Seau or Tedy Bruschi retire. Don't rule out Kenny Phillips here, either, as the successor to Rodney Harrison. Even though they DID just draft Brandon Meriweather as a safety out of Miami, he is currently listed on the Patriots’ depth chart as a corner, which either indicates their preference for him there, or indicates their lack of depth at the CB position. Another alternative is that they might just go ahead and snag McFadden for themselves to team with Maroney and compete for garbage-time carries after the passing game has decimated their opponent.

Trade potential: Moderate. They don't have any real needs, but they need to address depth at several key positions, most notably LB, but Keith Rivers is a classic 4-3 WLB and Dan Connor, who could play the middle, and Shawn Crable, who could play the outside, would be a bit of a reach here, so they may look to trade down (even multiple times) to stockpile picks and address depth.


8. Baltimore

Offence: 22
Passing: 23
Rushing: 16

Defence: 4
Passing: 20
Rushing: 2

The candidates: Ryan Clady, Keith Rivers
The pick: Andre Woodson

This team needs a QB. Steve McNair's a has-been and Kyle Boller's a never-was. Andre Woodson is a top prospect and would give a boost to their young receivers. OT is an area of concern, too and with Ryan Clady on the board, they could look to groom Jonathan Ogden's eventual replacement, but, when a good QB is available and you have the need, you take him.

Trade potential: Moderate. The Ravens have been known to make moves on draft day. If Sedrick Ellis is still on the board, look for the Saints to possibly leapfrog the Bengals to get him. The Ravens, looking at a QB, know the Saints won't take one, nor will the Bengals and they don't want to see Ellis go to a divisional rival, so they give the Saints the chance to get him, pick up something extra and still get their guy.

9. Cincinnati

Offence: 10
Passing: 7
Rushing: 24

Defence: 27
Passing: 26
Rushing: 21

The candidates: Keith Rivers, Ryan Clady, Darren McFadden
The pick: Vernon Gholston

With Rudi Johnson unable to stay healthy last year, the Bengals would be tempted by Darren McFadden here, but Kenny Watson proved to be a pretty valuable player and they did draft Kenny Irons last year. Not to mention that they are desparate for an impact defender. It's very hard to believe that a player of Vernon Gholston's calibre is still around at #9, but the Bengals are more than happy to bring him on. With Justin Smith and Robert Geathers on board, there may be temptation to look towards Keith Rivers here, but Gholston's just too talented to pass up.

Trade potential: Moderate. The Bengals have many defensive needs, but, if the stud defenders start falling off the board, then they may look to move up and if they're all gone by their pick, then they may look to move down.

10. New Orleans

Offence: 4
Passing: 3
Rushing: 28

Defence: 26
Passing: 30
Rushing: 13

The candidates: Curtis Lofton, Keith Rivers, Dan Connor, DeSean Jackson, Mike Jenkins, Ryan Clady
The pick:


(Oh, no! He's going to do it...











...he's going to take McFadden...






...please, noooooo!)






Kenny Phillips

Darren McFadden has fallen out of the top 10. I guess it takes a lot of guts or very little brains to make a call like that, but if Brady Quinn falls to 23, Matt Leinart can fall to #10 and the far superior Adrian Peterson falls to #7, then it's not unthinkable.

When you've got the 30th ranked pass defence and the ONE bright spot (Mike McKenzie) is lost for the next season, an impact defender is essential. Although CB is the first place to look, CBs take a long time to develop and often don’t live up to the hype, so it makes sense for Phillips to be the pick, who will be an immediate impact player in an all-around weak secondary. Teamed with Roman Harper, the pair will be one of the most dynamic young safety tandems in the NFL. I’m flip-flopping my stand on who New England will take: Talib or Phillips (I had Phillips in my first edit, but have gone with Talib or whoever emerges as CB#1. I believe, at this point, that we’ll take whoever New England doesn’t.) Don't rule out Keith Rivers or even Dan Connor here, but CB is a premium position and the biggest need. Personally, I'd prefer Rivers and, despite the need for CBs in the past, we never seem to take one, so who's to say what'll happen? The X-Factor here is Curis Lofton, who has recently declared for the draft. There's no doubt that he's a talented player: a 6'0, 240 lbs wrecking ball. If he performs well in the upcoming Combine and Pro Day, he could very well be the guy, especially considering the impact that guys like Lofa Tatupu,
Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans and David Harris have in and beyond their rookie seasons.

Trade potential: Moderate. We like to deal on draft day: Jonathan Sullivan and Jammal Brown were the result of draft day deals in recent years and there were discussions to deal the rights to Reggie Bush. We might move up to secure an impact defender, or, if we can't and they're all gone, we might move down to get some extra picks and still take a guy like Dan Connor.



Keep in mind that this isn't what I WANT to happen, it's just what I could see happening, based on team needs. It doesn't look like typical "mocks" go, but that’s because I have a love/hate relationship with mock drafts. This is more of a “sensible picks projection.” These things tend to change over the course of the next few months. I'm just trying to anticipate how they'll change.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Too many quarterbacks picked. I would love to see it, but it will not happen. And I would be elated if McFadden is the pick.

And thanks for the hard work and effort that went into your detailed and thoughtful analysis.

 

[canuckredux]

Thanks for the feedback. Sadly, I have this visual in my mind of McFadden wearing a Falcons hat.

Most mocks have Glenn Dorsey going to Miami at #1, but I'm not sold on that and I also could see a scenario where 1 or even zero QBs go in the top 10, but I think all 3 in there is very much a possibility. Those 3 franchises are desperate for QB help.

This is what I love about the draft; it's so unpredictable (which is why I never do mocks... again, it's a “sensible picks projection.”). Even 1 pick could have this trickle-down effect that shakes up the whole draft.


p.s. I'm sure the board is split on McFadden. I LOVE the guy, but if I put him there, it wouldn't be the most sensible pick, having Bush, PT and (possibly) Deuce back there.

 

[SaintsJunkie]

If Bill doesnt trade the #1 pick he will not pick a qb and wait years for him to develop, he thinks short term,he won't be around that long. Dorsey or Ellis is the pick

 

[d3vanj]

Great analysis, well thought out.

 

[rlemieux]

Doubt Miami takes a QB. Word is that Sparano and Parcells like what they have seen in Beck. Personally I see they going with Chris Long.

 

[canuckredux]

I have been thinking Long for a while. He makes more sense for that defence than Dorsey. I'm just not so sure about a 3-4 DE for 1st overall, though. IF the Tuna can get a QB in FA, or Beck starts to show something, then different story.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

I don't see McFadden sliding past Oakland, though I realize that running backs tend to last longer at the top of the draft then they should given their grade. For the record, I would love to see McFadden slide to the Saints at 10.

For my money, McFadden is the best player in the draft. He is a superb player, with strength, speed and vision; can block; can return kicks; and can catch, He was extraordinarily productive in college--with the arguable exception of Tebow in 2007, McFadden has been the top player in the SEC each of his three years and has clearly been a more dominant player than Glenn Dorsey.

However, on this board, I get the sense that a number of you think McFadden is overrated. Indeed, the label "bust" has strangely surfaced. And the criticism seems to have begun with the overwrought analysis of Brian Baldinger that appeared on this forum after the Bears game.

 

[nolaDante]

I don't see McFadden sliding past Oakland, though I realize that running backs tend to last longer at the top of the draft then they should given their grade. For the record, I would love to see McFadden slide to the Saints at 10.

For my money, McFadden is the best player in the draft. He is a superb player, with strength, speed and vision; can block; can return kicks; and can catch, He was extraordinarily productive in college--with the arguable exception of Tebow in 2007, McFadden has been the top player in the SEC each of his three years and has clearly been a more dominant player than Glenn Dorsey.

However, on this board, I get the sense that a number of you think McFadden is overrated. Indeed, the label "bust" has strangely surfaced. And the criticism seems to have begun with the overwrought analysis of Brian Baldinger that appeared on this forum after the Bears game.

If he fell to 10, I'd be ecstatic as well, but not because I want us to take him. At that position teams would probably start bidding away to trade up for McFadden and we'd be in perfect shape to fall back a few spots while acquiring additional picks.

 

[Skip Bayless]

no way mcfadden slides that far

 

[canuckredux]

Anything's possible. No way Derrick Johnson was supposed to fall that far (nor that we'd pass him over). No way Aaron Rodgers was supposed to fall to 24, Brady Quinn to 23, Ben Roethlisberger to 11, Matt Leinart to 10 or Adrian Peterson to 7. How about Reggie Bush to 2?

I don't think it's likely, but look at it team-by-team:

Miami: Ronnie Brown

STL: Steven Jackson

ATL: He could go here, but should they take him? Vick destroyed the image of that franchise; while a player of McFadden's caliber would provide a much-needed publicity boost to them, McFadden's been in some trouble himself and doesn't address football needs. Jerious Norwood is a capable RB, there will be a good RB available in the 2nd round and their QB situation is awful.

OAK: Al Davis would love to have this guy, but is it the right football move? Sure, he's talented, but the Raiders had the #6 rushing attack in the NFL last year and were next to last in pass rushing D. I really like the idea of Dorsey or Ellis here.

KC: Larry Johnson

NYJ: Another potential target. Would instantly be the toast of a city whose highest profile football player is "The Other Manning". Would be a huge marketing asset, but Mangini's not a style kind of guy; he's D-first and the Jets D has been an embarrassment, so if they can draft an impact defender, they will.

NE: They barely used their first-round running back at all this year.

Baltimore: Willis McGahee.

Cincy: Too many other holes, although he would tempt them and trade offers would be rolling in.

N.O.: Bush, Deuce, PT.

It's not unthinkable. It's HIGHLY unlikely, but it is possible and, no, this is not some hair-brained fantasy to get the people on here to start drooling over the possibility of drafting McFadden. I've got it narrowed down to Phillips, Talib and Lofton with Rivers on the outside looking in for us. The main selling point on this possible circumstance is that there will be some talented RBs available at the top of round 2: Although Mendenhall and Stewart are probably be long gone but one if not all of Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Jamaal Charles should still be around. How about Kevin Smith? Almost broke Barry Sanders' record. How come nobody's talking about Tashard Choice? He's a very good football player. None of them on McFadden's level, but, if there are very good football players on the board that address bigger needs, the smart football move is to take him.

That being said, the reality of it is McFadden's probably going top-5 and I'm not even ruling out the possibility of him going to Miami at #1.

 

[Saint Droopy]

Well thought-out mock... and you put ALOT of research into this... I appreciate it bro.

I doubt Tuna takes a QB qt #1 when they have a good QB that they drafted in the 2nd last year. I agree that Dorsey is not your prototype 3-4 DT... so that #1 pick may be McFadden... Ronnie Brown tore up his knee, and there is no promise that he'll be back at 100%. Even if he does come back 100% they'll need 2 good backs, and Tuna/Sporano likes to run the ball. Sure they have Ricky... but he may decide to get high any minute now, so McFadden is the safest pick here for Miami.

The Jake Long pick wit StLou is right on point...

I think ATL will take Matt Ryan with that 3rd pick.

Dorsey to the Raiders... yep... Sapp actually retired, so there's a huge gaping hole there. if Dorsey for some reason is off the board at 4 then I can see them taking Ellis.

Phillips and Keith RIvers are the only defensive player that will be worth a #10 pick... it'll be nerve-wreckin to sit here during those 10 minutes and sweat while the Saints make their pick... man I can't wait!

 

[birdog]

Anything's possible. No way Derrick Johnson was supposed to fall that far (nor that we'd pass him over). No way Aaron Rodgers was supposed to fall to 24, Brady Quinn to 23, Ben Roethlisberger to 11, Matt Leinart to 10 or Adrian Peterson to 7. How about Reggie Bush to 2?

I don't think it's likely, but look at it team-by-team:

Miami: Ronnie Brown

STL: Steven Jackson

ATL: He could go here, but should they take him? Vick destroyed the image of that franchise; while a player of McFadden's caliber would provide a much-needed publicity boost to them, McFadden's been in some trouble himself and doesn't address football needs. Jerious Norwood is a capable RB, there will be a good RB available in the 2nd round and their QB situation is awful.

OAK: Al Davis would love to have this guy, but is it the right football move? Sure, he's talented, but the Raiders had the #6 rushing attack in the NFL last year and were next to last in pass rushing D. I really like the idea of Dorsey or Ellis here.

KC: Larry Johnson

NYJ: Another potential target. Would instantly be the toast of a city whose highest profile football player is "The Other Manning". Would be a huge marketing asset, but Mangini's not a style kind of guy; he's D-first and the Jets D has been an embarrassment, so if they can draft an impact defender, they will.

NE: They barely used their first-round running back at all this year.

Baltimore: Willis McGahee.

Cincy: Too many other holes, although he would tempt them and trade offers would be rolling in.

N.O.: Bush, Deuce, PT.

It's not unthinkable. It's HIGHLY unlikely, but it is possible and, no, this is not some hair-brained fantasy to get the people on here to start drooling over the possibility of drafting McFadden. I've got it narrowed down to Phillips, Talib and Lofton with Rivers on the outside looking in for us. The main selling point on this possible circumstance is that there will be some talented RBs available at the top of round 2: Although Mendenhall and Stewart are probably be long gone but one if not all of Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Jamaal Charles should still be around. How about Kevin Smith? Almost broke Barry Sanders' record. How come nobody's talking about Tashard Choice? He's a very good football player. None of them on McFadden's level, but, if there are very good football players on the board that address bigger needs, the smart football move is to take him.

That being said, the reality of it is McFadden's probably going top-5 and I'm not even ruling out the possibility of him going to Miami at #1.

There is a slight problem with your thinking......you seem to think that every team ahead of us will draft for need.....but NOT US! Why is that? Why is it that the Saints once picked Deuce when Ricky Jackson was still with the team, and then traded Ricky....couldn't another team do just that? Miami certainly could.....and just about every team ahead of the Saints could go and draft McFadden, even though they're set at the position....just as we were.....

Almost impossible to think that McFadden will fall to #10.....the Adrian Peterson story is a huge reminder of that! Today many teams who had a chance to draft AP are banging their head into the wall....by blaming themselves on missing out on the best RB in at least the last 10 years!

 

[AARPSaint]

Thanks for doing so much work on this. Why do I have the horrible feeling that the best defensive players will be gone by #10 and the Saints will take an offensive player? I hope the front office learns from last year's mistake. And taking Meachem was a mistake, as the 7-9 record shows. In the long run, the pick might pay off and probably will, but we had to suffer through a very disappointing season with almost zero contributions from the draft class.

 

[birdog]

Thanks for doing so much work on this. Why do I have the horrible feeling that the best defensive players will be gone by #10 and the Saints will take an offensive player? I hope the front office learns from last year's mistake. And taking Meachem was a mistake, as the 7-9 record shows. In the long run, the pick might pay off and probably will, but we had to suffer through a very disappointing season with almost zero contributions from the draft class.

It is very possible the Saints draft on O, if they think that the BPA is an offensive player When I heard the DC saying that Bullocks played good for the Saints, that tells me that they might see the D as one, possibly 2 players away from being good enough not to lose games....in which case the shoring up of the offense is more important. They will try to address their defensive needs (MLB, CB) in the FA, and then do exactly what they did last year.....draft offense with the first pick.