Canuckredux breaks down the top 10 v.2.0

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canuckredux

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Get ready for more big surprises in the updated top-10 breakdown. The Super Bowl got me thinking about the hierarchy of premium positions last night and it got me re-evaluating the top-10.

1. Miami

Offence: 28
Passing: 24
Rushing: 23

Defence: 23
Passing: 4
Rushing: 32

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Matt Ryan, Jake Long
The pick: Chris Long, DE, Virginia

This pick could be the catalyst to the unfolding of the top-10. With the new Parcells/Sparano regime taking over in Miami, they will look to rebuild this franchise the best they can. Holding the first pick means holding the key to the draft and as such, they are in a very powerful negotiating position. They have publicly come out and said that they were open for business, which will have lots of teams calling about the possibility of acquiring the services of one Darren McFadden. No doubt, Jerry Jones will be front and center in those negotiations. If they ultimately keep the pick, then it becomes a tough one to project. QB? They seem to want to give John Beck a shot and Matt Ryan doesn’t scream franchise. LT? You could easily argue that the offensive line is the one unit that doesn’t need improvement. No, it’s the defence that needs to be addressed here. Vernon Gholston will garner a lot of consideration to play the OLB spot, but ultimately, the safest pick seems to be Chris Long. Many may still be arguing for Glenn Dorsey here, but with his risk of injury, the 3-4 scheme they run and the high bust potential of DTs in the draft, Miami may shy away from him. Not to mention that it's just not common for DTs to go #1 overall. In the early 90's, Russell Maryland, Steve Emtman and Dan Wilkinson were top picks, but none of them really lived up to their billing and it was also a dark time for NFL talent. Chris Long is a perfect fit at the DE spot: He’s got prototypical size and is a solid pass rusher and run-stopper. He’s the all-around weapon that the Dolphins will need to begin rebuilding that dreadful D.

Trade potential: Moderate. They probably want to deal this pick, but finding someone to pay the price is hard. In addition to Dallas, don't rule out the possibility of moving the pick to Cleveland, who's got to be eyeballing McFadden and the Browns have QBs to deal, in Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, who the Dolphins passed over in favour of Ted Ginn. With the depth at RB this year and the fact that the Browns don't have any urgency to deal a QB, such a scenario would be a big stretch.

2. St. Louis

Offence: 24
Passing: 19
Rushing: 25

Defence: 21
Passing: 21
Rushing: 20

The candidates: Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey
The pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan

This pick makes a lot of sense. Orlando Pace can't stay healthy and that line allowed 48 sacks last season, 6th most in the league. They have needs on both sides of the ball, but their offence, when healthy and running on all motors, is their strongest asset and a player of Long's ability to step in and start from day 1 and anchor the line is the best thing they can do to get the full potential out of that group. Glenn Dorsey would also be tempting, but since they just spent a 1st round pick on Adam Carriker, they don't have as big a need at DT, and LT is a more important position, so Long gets the nod.

Trade potential: Low. This team is better than their record and their need for a key player in the trenches could play a huge role in their turnaround.

3. Atlanta

Offence: 23
Passing: 18
Rushing: 26

Defence: 29
Passing: 23
Rushing: 26

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston

The pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

The Michael Vick situation has been both an offensive and public relations nightmare. With no QB stepping up in his absence and only castoffs Chris Redman, Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington compiling
the NFLs deepest cast of "Who's who isn'ts", they select golden boy Matt Ryan. Darren McFadden is going to be a BIG consideration here, but this is a very deep year for RBs, they already have the emerging Jerious Norwood, and McFadden’s had some off-field issues, they might want to shy away and they take Ryan.

Trade potential: Moderate. They may be willing to shell out a few extra picks or players to ensure they get Matt Ryan, but what will the Dolphins ask for in return? They might look to move down, too, and compile more picks if they have McFadden as a bargaining chip.

4. Oakland

Offence: 25
Passing: 31
Rushing: 6

Defence: 22
Passing: 8
Rushing: 31

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
The pick: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

This is a sexy pick, not a need pick. The Raiders were 31st against the run despite having the supremely talented Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison at 2 of the LB spots, so no problem there. Warren Sapp has retired and Ellis, a prototype havoc-wreaking 3-tech could come in as a replacement and Glenn Dorsey is rated by many as the top player in the whole draft. Also, RB was one of their bright spots last year, with Justin Fargas emerging as a true star, but he’s a free agent and the Raiders may not be interested in re-signing him. After spending big money on busts LaMont Jordan and Dominique Rhodes, Al will be salivating at the thought of a JaMarcus Russell/Darren McFadden backfield and takes the RB from Arkansas. The best thing for them to do here would be take Gholston or Ellis, but it doesn’t seem that Al knows or cares what the best thing for the franchise is.

Trade potential: Low. Al Davis is too tough a negotiator for his own good and he'll have trouble finding
a trade partner who wants to talk to him. Plus, he'll be in perfect position to get what he wants at this pick.

5. Kansas City

Offence: 31
Passing: 20
Rushing: 32

Defence: 13
Passing: 5
Rushing: 28

The candidates: Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Brian Brohm
The pick: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

This pick really came down to a question of need versus talent. There's no denying that the 28th run defence is nothing to brag about, especially when you might have the NFL's most talented trio of LBs in
Derrick Johnson, Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris, not to mention run-stuffing machine superfreak Jared Allen at DE, so obviously DT is a need. But also of need: An offensive line. This unit gave up a league-high 55 sacks and their rushing attack was last in the league, so Ryan Clady, like Levi Brown last year, would be drafted perhaps a touch too high, but at a premium position of desperate need. Clady’s stock could rise at the Combine and Pro Day, too, so this pick may not end up being a reach at all. Don't rule out a quarterback, either, as Andre Woodson would be very tempting, but Brodie Croyle has done a serviceable job and it’s early in his career.

Trade potential: Moderate. If Ryan Clady is still considered a reach, they may look to deal down a few spots with someone looking to secure the rights to Gholston or a DT. Who will trade up, though?

6. New York Jets

Offence: 26
Passing: 25
Rushing: 19

Defence: 18
Passing: 9
Rushing: 29

The candidates: Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Jonathan Stewart
The pick: Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State

I wonder how much consideration will be done here if Gholston is still on the board. Ellis and Dorsey make no sense for the Jets’ 3-4 D: They’re too short to play end and too light to play the nose. Although good players are good players and you find a way to work them into the scheme, pass-rushers are a premium position and this unit only managed 29 sacks last year. After seeing the success of their Meadowlands co-tenants and their 53-sack total, the Jets go ahead and take Gholston, who would be a perfect fit in New York’s 3-4 as an OLB and is an elite prospect in his own right.

Trade potential: Low. They do have a history of making moves in the draft, with trading up to get Darrelle Revis last year and negotiating the previous year to try to get Reggie Bush. Of course, these were upward moves and sitting at #6, the Jets will be in a position to draft an impact player without trading up. Trade down? Not unless they want to get torn apart by the hostile hometown crowd who have become bitter over decades of draft day blunders.

7. New England (f/SF)

Offence: 1
Passing: 1
Rushing: 13

Defence: 4
Passing: 6
Rushing: 10

The candidates: Kenny Phillips, Keith Rivers, Dan Connor, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis.
The pick: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

What do you get for the guy that has everything? If the draft unfolds like this, then probably even more, as you are likely to hear lots of trade discussions for teams that want to leap up and grab Ellis or Dorsey. If they keep the pick, look for New England to take McKelvin, a speedy, athletic corner who they can groom as the replacement for Asante Samuel, should he leave in free agency. LB is a possibility here, too, as Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi are rumoured to be retiring soon and Dan Connor fits the mould of a Belichick-type player. Keith Rivers is another consideration and don't rule out Kenny Phillips here, either, as the successor to Rodney Harrison. Even though they DID just draft Brandon Meriweather as a safety out of Miami, he is currently listed on the Patriots’ depth chart as a corner, which either indicates their preference for him there, or indicates their lack of depth at the CB position, which is most likely and they look to change that with the drafting of McKelvin (or whoever rises up the ranks to become the top-rated corner.)

Trade potential: Moderate. They don't have any glaring needs, but they need to address depth at several key positions, most notably LB, but Keith Rivers is a classic 4-3 WLB and Dan Connor, who could play the middle, and Shawn Crable, who could play the outside, would be a bit of a reach here, so they may look to trade down (even multiple times) to stockpile picks and address depth.


8. Baltimore

Offence: 22
Passing: 23
Rushing: 16

Defence: 4
Passing: 20
Rushing: 2

The candidates: Keith Rivers, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Kenny Phillips
The pick: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

This team needs a QB. Steve McNair's a has-been and Kyle Boller's a never-was. Brian Brohm is a top prospect and would give a boost to their young receivers. OT is an area of concern and they could look to groom Jonathan Ogden's eventual replacement, but nobody at this point warrants that high of a pick.

Trade potential: Moderate. The Ravens have been known to make moves on draft day. If Sedrick Ellis is still on the board, look for the Saints to possibly leapfrog the Bengals to get him. The Ravens, looking at a QB, know the Saints won't take one, nor will the Bengals and they don't want to see Ellis go to a divisional rival, so they give the Saints the chance to get him, pick up something extra and still get their guy. Another possibility is moving down several picks and targeting Jeff Otah or Gosder Cherilus.

9. Cincinnati

Offence: 10
Passing: 7
Rushing: 24

Defence: 27
Passing: 26
Rushing: 21

The candidates: Keith Rivers, Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Jonathan Stewart
The pick: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

With Rudi Johnson unable to stay healthy last year, the Bengals would be tempted by Stewart here, but Kenny Watson proved to be a pretty valuable player and they did draft Kenny Irons in the 2nd round last year. Not to mention that they are desperate for an impact defender. People are scratching their heads at this pick: How could they possibly allow both Ellis and Dorsey to slip through their fingers? It’s simple: This unit created a league-worst 22 sacks. They were so desperate for a pass-rusher that they franchised Justin Smith. The Giants proved in the Super Bowl that you can never have too many good pass-rushers and the Bengals will look to follow that philosophy by getting at least 1. This may be a little high for Harvey at this point, but he is going to be one of the most watched players at the Combine; many are expecting his stock to soar in the coming months and this may end up being a great value.

Trade potential: Moderate. The Bengals have many defensive needs, but, if the stud defenders start falling off the board, then they may look to move up and if they're all gone by their pick, then they may look to move down.

10. New Orleans

Offence: 4
Passing: 3
Rushing: 28

Defence: 26
Passing: 30
Rushing: 13

The candidates: Glenn Dorsey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Keith Rivers, Dan Connor, DeSean Jackson, Mike Jenkins, Kenny Phillips

The pick: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

How is it that 2 elite talents like Sedrick Ellis and Glenn Dorsey, could possibly fall as far as #10? It’s really quite simple: The hierarchy of premium positions goes as follows: QB, LT, Pass-Rusher, CB. DTs have a high bust-potential, as evidenced by guys like the heralded 2003 class of Jonathan Sullivan, Dwayne Robertson and Jimmy Kennedy. Ryan Sims and Gerard Warren also flopped. Also of note: The last time 2 DTs were taken in the top-10: 3 straight years, 2001-2003. However, one of those DTs in 2001 was Richard Seymour, who was drafted to play DE. You’d have to go back all they way to 1994 to see that again. Since that run on DTs which produced the flops mentioned above, not a single DT has been drafted in the top 9. Amobi Okoye, Tommie Harris, Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork: All drafted 10th or later. This year, Ellis and Dorsey are 2 of the best DTs we’ve seen in years, but they don’t really fit many of the teams’ schemes. They’re too short to play DE in a 3-4 and too light to play the nose. Miami, NYJ, NE, Balti all play 3-4 and Cincy is rumoured to be making the switch. If they start to slide past that 2-5 slot, occupied by the 4-3-base Rams, Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs, and it’s very possible, given they all have needs at premium positions, then one or both of them could end up falling right into our lap. It IS a big “if”, however, and they are certainly top-5 talents.

This pick came down to who’s the better player and the lesser risk. Although the New Orleans fan base would love to see LSU star Glenn Dorsey taken here, Sedrick Ellis seems to be emerging as the better player. (Personally, I’d take Ellis.) Added to the fact that he’s less of an injury concern and has the type of character and gusto that would really endear to Sean Payton. With his havoc-wreaking, run-stuffing, pass rushing skills, Ellis would bring an added dimension to the Saints’ woeful D-Line here not seen since the heyday of La’Roi Glover. He would anchor the line and garner double-teams, allowing will Smith and Charles Grant to get single-coverage and get a run on the QB. CB is definitely a concern, too, and with a specimen like DRC on the board, it would be hard to pass up, but the best friend a CB has is a good pass-rush and Ellis would best help the Saints out there.

Trade potential: Moderate. We like to deal on draft day: Jonathan Sullivan and Jammal Brown were the result of draft day deals in recent years and there were discussions to deal the rights to Reggie Bush. We might move up to secure an impact defender, especially if one of the DTs gets taken early, or, if we can't and they're all gone, we might move down to get some extra picks and still take a guy like Dan Connor. Finding a trading partner with all the blue-chippers off the board will make it hard to get true value. The argument could be made that since the DTs are so instrumental in the pass-rush, then teams like Atlanta, Oakland and KC would be salivating over guys like that to free up their DEs and it's a very valid argument and we'll see how it shakes out.

**Keep in mind that this isn't what I WANT to happen, it's just what I could see happening, based on team needs and the hierarchy of premium positions. It doesn't look like typical "mocks" go, but that’s because I have a love/hate relationship with mock drafts. This is more of a “sensible picks projection.” These things tend to change over the course of the next few months. I'm just trying to anticipate how they'll change.
 
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while I don't agree with Dorsey falling to 10 much less past 10, I appreciate the effort.
 
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canuckredux

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To be honest, at the start, I don't even believe it myself; it seems so absurd until I actually start working it out. Much like people in Oregon probably couldn't imagine Haloti Ngata falling out of the top 10, or people in Oklahoma probably couldn't imagine Tommie Harris falling out of the top 10. Weird stuff happens on draft day, which is why it's so much fun. I'd be thrilled with either (more so with Ellis) and would not be surprised to see one of these potential top-5 picks slide to us. Both? Hey, stranger things have happened. I'm just hoping to map out a reasoning behind it.
 

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I don't understand how we could pass on Dorsey for Ellis if that happened.
You really can't go wrong with either. I think more people love Dorsey here simply because he is more familiar. But they are both solid. I actually believe that Ellis is the better pass rusher of the two. They both play with excellent leverage. The other thing that I like about Ellis is that he is well-conditioned and does not wear down as easily as Dorsey does throughout the course of a game. Dorsey is the ultimate team leader and a guy that can dominate you at the point of attack. Again, they are both going to be great players. The fact that Ed Orgeron is familiar with Ellis could give him the edge over Dorsey. Then again, our scouts could prefer Dorsey. You never know. But if we did pass Dorsey for Ellis, I wouldn't be upset. Now, if we passed Dorsey for a someone else, I would be upset.
 
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canuckredux

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:plus-un2:..not going to happen, noway he falls out
"until I actually start working it out."

Matt Leinart, Haloti Ngata, Tommie Harris, Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Kennedy and Casey Hampton might disagree with the "no way" thinking.

No way would Reggie Bush fall to #2.
No way Ricky Williams would fall to #5
No way Deuce McAllister would fall to #23
No way Drew Brees would fall to the 2nd round.

High bust potential of DTs.
4 (possibly 5) teams running a 3-4.
It's not a premium position in comparison to QB, LT, Pass-rusher, CB. .
Dorsey is injury prone. Edit: He's never missed a game, so maybe it's not a concern.
Ellis is taking over as the #1 DT.

It COULD happen. It seems unrealistic, but anybody who says "no way" doesn't know their draft history.
 
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"until I actually start working it out."

Matt Leinart, Haloti Ngata, Tommie Harris, Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Kennedy and Casey Hampton might disagree with the "no way" thinking.

No way would Reggie Bush fall to #2.
No way Ricky Williams would fall to #5
No way Deuce McAllister would fall to #23
No way Drew Brees would fall to the 2nd round.

High bust potential of DTs.
4 (possibly 5) teams running a 3-4.
It's not a premium position in comparison to QB, LT, Pass-rusher, CB. .
Dorsey is injury prone.
Ellis is taking over as the #1 DT.

It COULD happen. It seems unrealistic, but anybody who says "no way" doesn't know their draft history.
is Dorsey injury prone? I'm not asking to be sarcastic, but the only injury I remember hearing about him was the one that happened this year. And if that's the only injury he's had, injury prone is not a correct assesment at all. Also, don't let one or two prognosticators fool you into thinking that Ellis is taking over as the #1 DT on the NFL teams' boards. If Dorsey is healthy, he'll grade out higher than everyone else with the exception of McFadden.
 
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is Dorsey injury prone? I'm not asking to be sarcastic, but the only injury I remember hearing about him was the one that happened this year. And if that's the only injury he's had, injury prone is not a correct assesment at all. Also, don't let one or two prognosticators fool you into thinking that Ellis is taking over as the #1 DT on the NFL teams' boards. If Dorsey is healthy, he'll grade out higher than everyone else with the exception of McFadden.
I'm basing this on what I've seen. I'm a USC fan; I watch as many games as I can and I've seen a few LSU games; I believe, and I've been saying this well before the prognosticators, that Sedrick Ellis is better than Glenn Dorsey. Admittedly, I've seen more of Ellis, but. based on what I've seen, he's the better player. Not putting a USC bias out there, either (I'm against us drafting Rivers), it's just what I think. I may be wrong, but I see Ellis as the more disruptive and the better pass-rusher.

BTW, I just heard about injuries on this board. I think I heard something about him having bad knees. After looking at his bio, I see he's never missed a game, so I guess it's not been an issue so far, aside from playing at less than 100% after the Auburn game.
 
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I'm basing this on what I've seen. I'm a USC fan; I watch as many games as I can and I've seen a few LSU games; I believe, and I've been saying this well before the prognosticators, that Sedrick Ellis is better than Glenn Dorsey. Admittedly, I've seen more of Ellis, but. based on what I've seen, he's the better player. Not putting a USC bias out there, either (I'm against us drafting Rivers), it's just what I think. I may be wrong, but I see Ellis as the more disruptive and the better pass-rusher.

BTW, I just heard about injuries on this board. I think I heard something about him having bad knees. After looking at his bio, I see he's never missed a game, so I guess it's not been an issue so far, aside from playing at less than 100% after the Auburn game.
I'm not an LSU diehard, but I do watch all of the games with a rooting interest, and admittedly, have not seen as many USC games as LSU games. And I don't want you to think I'm discounting Ellis as a football player, because what little I've seen of him and from what I've read, he looks like he's going to be a great NFL prospect. But I have to believe that based on the entire body of work, and the amount of attention that has been drawn to Dorsey from media and coaches nationwide (not just in the South) for the past two seasons, that he's going to carry a higher grade than Ellis. I'm sure Ellis helped his stock at the Senior Bowl, and they very well could be neck and neck, but the fact that Dorsey has played at the level he's played at for two or three seasons, confirmed with the projection of Dorsey being a top-20 pick had he come out last season, to me, I believe he'll carry a higher grade. The only question mark seems to be Dorsey's knee, which none of us know what that will turn out to be yet. But what the heck do I know? :)
 

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I'm not an LSU diehard, but I do watch all of the games with a rooting interest, and admittedly, have not seen as many USC games as LSU games. And I don't want you to think I'm discounting Ellis as a football player, because what little I've seen of him and from what I've read, he looks like he's going to be a great NFL prospect. But I have to believe that based on the entire body of work, and the amount of attention that has been drawn to Dorsey from media and coaches nationwide (not just in the South) for the past two seasons, that he's going to carry a higher grade than Ellis. I'm sure Ellis helped his stock at the Senior Bowl, and they very well could be neck and neck, but the fact that Dorsey has played at the level he's played at for two or three seasons, confirmed with the projection of Dorsey being a top-20 pick had he come out last season, to me, I believe he'll carry a higher grade. The only question mark seems to be Dorsey's knee, which none of us know what that will turn out to be yet. But what the heck do I know? :)
I think if it came down to a choice between Ellis or Dorsey that it would be smarter to take Ellis. Dorsey is an AMAZING athlete, one of the best defensive players I've ever seen. BUT, so is Ellis. Ellis is on the same level as Dorsey IMO, if not then he's pretty damn close. I would take Ellis because he doesn't have any past injuries. I know Dorsey didn't miss a game, but his knee could come to be a bothering issue in the future. Why wouldn't you take someone with no history of injury on the same level as someone who has a knee problem? (Not saying the problem is lingering, or big, just saying..it could be)
 
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I'm basing this on what I've seen. I'm a USC fan; I watch as many games as I can and I've seen a few LSU games; I believe, and I've been saying this well before the prognosticators, that Sedrick Ellis is better than Glenn Dorsey. Admittedly, I've seen more of Ellis, but. based on what I've seen, he's the better player. Not putting a USC bias out there, either (I'm against us drafting Rivers), it's just what I think. I may be wrong, but I see Ellis as the more disruptive and the better pass-rusher.

BTW, I just heard about injuries on this board. I think I heard something about him having bad knees. After looking at his bio, I see he's never missed a game, so I guess it's not been an issue so far, aside from playing at less than 100% after the Auburn game.

His knee injury was caused by an illegal chop block. He was much healthier in the National Title game, and it showed.

I haven't seen enough of Ellis to compare the two, but a majority of the 'draft experts' have Dorsey as one of the top two or three talents on the board. I've seen Ellis as high as 5, but not much higher than that.

Time will tell, but I really don't see Dorsey being a bust. Sure, it may be a homer-esque statement, but it's my humble opinion.



As long as we get some solid help on Defense, I'll be happy. Watching the Giants in the Super Bowl win w/ basically the same talent they had last year makes me think we could really only be a few key cogs (& a healthy Deuce) away from the unfathomable.
 
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