Carney vs. Hartley (1 Viewer)

[Jubilee Dunbar]

Its only one roster spot. Keep them both for now until you see what you really have in Hartley.

 

[WxM]

No real technical discussion here... not much that way in terms of kickers. But I just wanted to throw in my two cents in light of Hartley's looming reinstatement.

I think Hartley is a good kicker. He has a strong leg and did an excellent job after coming in late last season. But if I were the Saints brass, I would cut him and hang onto John Carney.

Yes, there is a danger of letting Hartley walk out the door. He'll be at the top of a lot of teams lists (Seahawks?) and could catch on somewhere else permanently. Even though he was curiously shaky this preseason, I think he has a bright future in the NFL and has the talent to stay in the league for a while. That said, he WAS shaky in the preseason. His previous body of work is only a few games from last season. What he was/is likely going through is just a phase of accuracy struggles, but the Saints seem to have lightning in a bottle right now and shouldn't take any unnecessary risks with regard to the place kicking game... which is looking pretty solid/consistent.

You know what you have in John Carney. He went to the Pro Bowl last season at the age of 46 or 47... and only after he was signed by the Giants due to an injury. He's obviously not a long term solution, but he is very accurate and consistent kicking from inside the 40. Sean Payton has already admitted that it was a mistake to let him walk out the door after the '06 season. I say don't make that mistake again.

The only merit I see in keeping Hartley over Carney is long-term. The focus needs to be on this season. Again... it's just the kicker, not the QB, so I won't be up in arms either way. But John has earned his spot, IMO, for at least one more season (and it'd be nice to have him be a part of Saints history after the years he's put in to this organization).

It's not often I feel the need to add anything to what you say, but here goes.

The main thing I see is something we have heard from Coach time and again: they chart every kick and keep all the data on each from every practice and every situation. That's what's given them the confidence they had in Hartley up to this point. I don't think any of us can have a good feel for what they will do because we don't get access to the information on how those guys do in practice every day. And if you'll recall, that was the recent we got rid of Taylor Mehlhaff last year, really, was that they were getting scared from what they saw it practice. Now, some of Carney's kicks haven't exactly inspired confidence even though they've gone through (sans block). So who knows who did better in preseason, and who knows what they'll do. But I am inclined to believe that given the way Sean got burned by letting Carney go before, and the number of times he has expressed that publically, I think there could be a tendency to keep Carney that might not otherwise be there if Hartley's replacement had been Bob Smith giving the same performance Carney has.

 

[Jackson]

I'm going to strike out on a tangent here:

I think I actually prefer having a kicker with low accuracy at the longer distances. I'm sure this point will be called out as heresy, but if Payton knows that the percentages on field goals between the 30 and 40, say, are lower than otherwise expected, then he will be more inclined to take shots at going for it on 4th and shorts and even 4th and mediums.


I'm firmly in the camp that going for it on 4th and 3 at the 35 is always a good idea in the first three quarters of a game. NFL Coaches are risk-adverse, and are consistantly giving up win percentage in expectation on 4th down plays around this yardage.

See the analysis on the following site:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html

For average teams, going for it on even a 4th and 10 (!) can be justified over the options of punting and attempting a FG, and I'd argue that going for it is even MORE justified for our team, which will normally have a better Offense vs Opp. Defense matchup than a Defense vs Opp. Offense matchup. (Though granted, this week against the Jets may be an example of where this may not be the case.)

Anyways, my point is, give me the maximum accuracy on the kicks where it's a no brainer attempt every time over better accuracy on kicks which might be questionable decisions.

There will be people that look back and second guess when this goes wrong, and it WILL some times, but in terms of winning the most games, I think this is the way to go.

This is a very intelligent post and I believe it's the only logical explanation for Carney over Hartley.

Knowing that 48 yard field goals aren't an option with Carney forces the Saints to often make the "right" decision of going for it instead of trying a risky field goal.

But all other signs point to Hartley.

 

[Jedi Gregoire]

This is the way I see it. Carney is money from inside 45. That doesn't mean he can't make longer FG's, but when he lines up for mid-range to shorter ones, I have all the confidence in the world that the ball is going thru the uprights. Personally, I don't have the same level of confidence in Hartley at this point. Now you throw in Morstead, who has been lights out on kickoffs, so much so that even if Hartley comes back, you have to assume that Morstead will keep doing KO's. So where does that leave Hartley? The only reason you keep him over Carney is to improve your chances on making the occasional long field goal, and IMO that is not reason enough to bring him back. Yes, there may be a time when we need a strong legged kicker to make a 50+ yarder, but the way SP calls games, the only way he's taking a chance on a FG that long is if it's 4th and long, and those scenarios are not that common.

I don't think they keep 2 kickers again. This is our year, so I say keep Carney, but it'll be interesting to see what they do after Sunday.

I agree, but I would keep both kickers to the half way point of the season just in case. Carney is the kicker unless he starts missing alot. But I sure would hate to need a long field goal at the end of the game to win or tie. Maybe we can resurrect Morten in his prime. I was at the Bears game when he made it from 60, it would have been good from 70.

 

[ecstarz]

This is the way I see it. Carney is money from inside 45. That doesn't mean he can't make longer FG's, but when he lines up for mid-range to shorter ones, I have all the confidence in the world that the ball is going thru the uprights. Personally, I don't have the same level of confidence in Hartley at this point. Now you throw in Morstead, who has been lights out on kickoffs, so much so that even if Hartley comes back, you have to assume that Morstead will keep doing KO's. So where does that leave Hartley? The only reason you keep him over Carney is to improve your chances on making the occasional long field goal, and IMO that is not reason enough to bring him back. Yes, there may be a time when we need a strong legged kicker to make a 50+ yarder, but the way SP calls games, the only way he's taking a chance on a FG that long is if it's 4th and long, and those scenarios are not that common.

I don't think they keep 2 kickers again. This is our year, so I say keep Carney, but it'll be interesting to see what they do after Sunday.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

P.S. What the hell---->

 

[Wisco Steve]

I agree, but I would keep both kickers to the half way point of the season just in case. Carney is the kicker unless he starts missing alot. But I sure would hate to need a long field goal at the end of the game to win or tie.

I can see keeping both for a week or two at the most. It just isn't realistic given the attrition of the rosters throughout the year in the NFL. Also how many teams (much less successful ones) do you see with multiple kickers? Like it has been stated, kickers tend to have fragile heads and you can't screw around and tell them 'you run out and kick those chip shots John' and 'save your leg for the long one later Hartley'. We are going to pick one, and IMO it has to be Hartley.

 

[Cuozzo67]

I agree, but I would keep both kickers to the half way point of the season just in case. Carney is the kicker unless he starts missing alot. But I sure would hate to need a long field goal at the end of the game to win or tie. Maybe we can resurrect Morten in his prime. I was at the Bears game when he made it from 60, it would have been good from 70.

I didn't see the 1991 Chicago game in person (only on TV), but Morten obviously had a very strong leg. In 1982, the Saints lost to the Bucs (in those orange jerseys), 13-10. At the end of the game, Anderson tried a 60 yard field goal. He didn't make it, barely hooking it right. The kick easily traveled 65+ yards. If the Saints tie and win in overtime, they would have been off to a 4-1 start, and a shoe-in for the playoffs since that was the strike-shortened season.

I prefer Carney over Hartley. The youngster has a very strong leg, but accuracy is ultimately more important than distance. In baseball, a home run counts the same, whether it barely clears the fence or is knocked out of the park. If a player hits a ball 500 feet and it's a foul ball, it counts for nothing but a strike. I know ... Hartley didn't miss a kick last year, but he was never tested in a win or lose situation. Gramatica was perfect the last 5 games of 2007, and he was a veteran with a track record. He wasn't perfect in 2008 ... not even close.

I like Hartley's leg strength and potential. I would have no problem keeping him and Carney active for the remainder of the season. Who gets cut to keep Hartley? I'm not sure ... my guess would be Casilles. If Hartley is waived, I think a team is more likely to claim him (than Casilles).

Some kickers are indeed "flaky." But you can watch Carney and his interaction with his teammates and see he is respected by the players on the squad.

 

[NDat#]

Lot of good points on this discussion that shows how difficult the decision is going to be.

Even if Carney gets waived as he already acknowledges is a possibility, he may feel his best option is to wait and see how Hartley does before signing with any other team's openings. Depends on how he feels about the organization, whether he just wants to kick at the first available opening, whether he wants to win a Super Bowl and feels this is the team closest to winning it all for him, and what chances he thinks we'll come calling as well as Hartley's chances of struggling. He'd be kind of like a "restricted" free agent.

 

[blackngold7733]

Before you give up Hartleys job to Carney, remember the frickin dude didn't miss a FG last year. You real Saints fans remember that.

With Hartley it wasn't a very big sample size of FG's last year, and also none of them were last minute game-winners or "clutch" kicks. He's definitely an unknown at this point, especially when put up against Carney. With JC you know EXACTLY what you're getting.

However, I believe Hartley won some confidence with SP last year. He came in for a tryout against other rooks and vets alike and won the job hands down. His youth is a plus and the distance is a plus.

Whatever happens, I just hope we don't have to go through another Roller-Coaster of kickers this year!

 

[AceTW]

I don't know why everyone claims Carney is money in the bank, as most of his kicks have been VERY ugly this year. Sure he's made them, but they are not pretty.....

I swear I just don't understand this argument.. Is it just me?

Sounds kinda like "I'm not betting on that horse because it's ugly. I know it wins every race, but it's so ugly!"

 

[Wisco Steve]

I swear I just don't understand this argument.. Is it just me?

Sounds kinda like "I'm not betting on that horse because it's ugly. I know it wins every race, but it's so ugly!"

I agree, I am not in favor of releasing Carney because his kicks haven't looked pretty. It's about the fact that Hartley will make us a better overall football team.

 

[TCUDan]

Hate to be in the Superbowl, down by 2 pts, running out of time, and needing a 47+ yard kick to win it. For some reason, I think the people wanting to keep Carney are probably the same people that wanted to replace Shanle with Brooks, and Pierre Thomas with Edderrin James.

Ha, well you may want to do a search for my posts on that subject . It has nothing to do with preferring a player, just if it were up to it is the way I would do it (given what I know now... as guillermo said, Hartley lights it up in a couple of practices and maybe that changes things). But I have more confidence in Carney at this pt. in time.

 

[TCUDan]

It's not often I feel the need to add anything to what you say, but here goes.

The main thing I see is something we have heard from Coach time and again: they chart every kick and keep all the data on each from every practice and every situation. That's what's given them the confidence they had in Hartley up to this point. I don't think any of us can have a good feel for what they will do because we don't get access to the information on how those guys do in practice every day. And if you'll recall, that was the recent we got rid of Taylor Mehlhaff last year, really, was that they were getting scared from what they saw it practice. Now, some of Carney's kicks haven't exactly inspired confidence even though they've gone through (sans block). So who knows who did better in preseason, and who knows what they'll do. But I am inclined to believe that given the way Sean got burned by letting Carney go before, and the number of times he has expressed that publically, I think there could be a tendency to keep Carney that might not otherwise be there if Hartley's replacement had been Bob Smith giving the same performance Carney has.

Not to mince words, but I wasn't attempting to predict what the Saints will actually do (decision-wise). I was just stating what I would do in their position based off of what I know now.

Again, i can definitely see them keeping Hartley and wouldn't have a problem with that.

 

[St. Geezy]

Its only one roster spot. Keep them both for now until you see what you really have in Hartley.

Easy for us to say when we're not the ones trying to piece together a 45-man gameday roster. That extra roster spot is valuable.

I say go with the long-term fix in Hartley and keep Carney on speed dial.

 

[chrisandersen]

Hartley with Natalie Gulbis at the Prattville HS game (from her twitter site)
That answered my question on wether or not he's working out.