Carolina Will Not Trade for Burrow (1 Viewer)

RJ in Lafayette

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A reliable source has advised....

No, I have no sources, even unreliable ones.

But with Joe Brady becoming Carolina's offensive coordinator, we hear the speculation that Carolina will trade with the Bengals to pick Joe Burrow. In my view, several reasons why this will not happen:

1. It appears that the Bengals are ready to move on from Andy Dalton and thus desperately need a quarterback. Burrow seems perfect for a young offensive coach, who came to Cincinnati from the Rams, and the type of offense he wants to run. Given Burrow's value on and off the field, the Bengals will demand multiple first-round and other picks for the first pick in the draft. And Cincinnati does not make major trades. If Mike Brown were to make this trade and were Burrow--with his Ohio roots--to become a true franchise quarterback, people will compare this trade to Boston trading away Babe Ruth. Mike Brown simply cannot afford to make a trade and take the chance that Burrow becomes a great quarterback in the league who plays for 15 years. For an organization with a legacy of not making major moves, a trade of the draft pick to be used to select Burrow involves, on several levels, too much risk for a risk-averse organization.

2. The reason that David Tepper fired Ron Rivera, and hired Matt Rhule, is that Rivera is too old-school whereas Rhule seems comfortable in a new coaching world where statistics drive coaching decisions. David Tepper, who made billions running a hedge fund, believes in numbers--and he absolutely wants a football organization where the numbers determine the team's major decisions. For Carolina to trade for Burrow, Rhule will have to make the case that , based on historical date, the trade statistically makes sense. But statistically, trading away the multiple high picks that Cincinnati will demand to move up in the draft carries too much risk. Every player, regardless of how high he is picked, carries a certain risk of failure or disappointment. And based on the numbers, there is a question as to just how high of a grade Burrow will receive.

If Carolina were to like Tua, the cost of trading up to three or four, before Miami at five, will be substantially less than the cost of trading up to one with Cincinnati.

3. Carolina seems to be rebuilding. With the retirement of Kuehly and possible departure of Greg Olsen, Carolina is not a terribly talented team. With a young quarterback, it would have the cap space to spend heavily in free agency. But with a modest roster, a young quarterback and a young coaching staff with little NFL experience, Carolina could be drafting high for the next two or three years. Thus, high draft picks traded away will have particularly high value and are needed to rebuild the Panthers.
 

TribuneUK

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Interesting views. There will be bridge quarterbacks available to see Carolina through and the wisest path might be (as ever) to play BPA with their pick and skip a first round QB draftee altogether until next year, or take one later.

I'd say the Brady-Burrows link has been overstated, but then again Arizona dumped their barely acquired franchise QB for their new franchise QB because of the coaching connection.
 

dutar76

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I don't know if Cinci would ever come off of that #1 pick or exactly how ridiculous the offer would have to be for them to do it. All I'm sure about is that there are a bunch of teams that are going to make them offers and that Carolina is one of them.

I don't believe this is a very deep QB class. Personally, I think it's Burrow and Tua if healthy. Maybe there's another one that might surprise, but if so, I don't know which one it would be. I'm not big on Herbert, Eason, Fromm, Hurts, or any of the lesser names.

Any team taking one of these other QBs will also likely be in the market for a bridge QB unless they already have one on the roster. This adds value to guys like Teddy and maybe even Taysom.
 
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Their is only really one way any team needing a QB won’t trade for Joe Burrow. The answer is Cincy will simply say no to any offers, because Burrow is a potential franchise changer. It’s similar to Zion Williamson in the NBA. You just don’t trade potential like that.
 

guillermo

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I am almost certain that Burrow will be a Bengal. Yesterday there was a report at PFT of the assistant coaches of the Bengals already raving about Burrow.

On my opinion, the only team that can make a push to go up and get him, is Miami. They are picking already at #5, they have 3 first round picks this year and multiple picks for 3 years.

Still, I think Burrow will be a Bengal, and Tua will go to the dolphins.
 

GeneHansen

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The smart thing for Carolina to do would be to sign Teddy.

He's a proven NFL starting QB who knows the system. Think about Joe Brady coming into that organization to install a new system and having a well respected player like Bridgewater who knows the system already on the same page.
 

Ti Rider

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I really wonder what the market will be for Cam Newton. Panthers fans are expecting a boatload of picks but with his age, recent performance, and injury history I’m not so sure it will be the windfall they expect.
 

No2DC

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The smart thing for Carolina to do would be to sign Teddy.

He's a proven NFL starting QB who knows the system. Think about Joe Brady coming into that organization to install a new system and having a well respected player like Bridgewater who knows the system already on the same page.
This makes a lot of sense but if you're Teddy why would you go to a rebuilding team?
 

Loose Cannon

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They aren't going to trade for Burrow simply because I think Rhule and Brady are smart enough not to blow up a rebuilding team's future just to get a QB. And I really honestly don't think the Bengals are going to trade that pick for anything. They surely understand that Lebron leaving left a huge void that could be filled in perfectly by a hometown kid playing QB for the Bengals. Fantastic player and a marketing department's dream. I don't see any way they eject from that situation, not for any cost really.

Brady is a pro-style guy and Rhule is an old-school smash mouth type guy. Rhule ran RPO at Baylor due to personnel, which is a testament to his coaching ability and creativity. But make no mistake, he wants to run the football, throw timing routes and stay ahead of the chains. They're going to want a smart player who makes throws from the pocket and doesn't make mistakes.

The system they'll run won't require elite WRs (though they have a good young WR core) and McCaffrey is the perfect weapon for them to build around.

IMO the absolute worst case scenario is the Panthers getting either Prescott or Teddy. They have a ton of cap room they can flex if they want to. They could be a lot of trouble for the division if they land either of those guys. ?
 

TribuneUK

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I really wonder what the market will be for Cam Newton. Panthers fans are expecting a boatload of picks but with his age, recent performance, and injury history I’m not so sure it will be the windfall they expect.
Obviously other factors such as scarcity of alternatives and salary cap ramifications have an effect, but where is the comparison for a QB like Cam in terms of compensation?

Recent history of trades for QBs with starts under their belt don't necessarily offer an easy match:

Joe Flacco for a 4th
Tyrod Taylor for a 3rd
Alex Smith for a 3rd and CB Kendall Fuller
Teddy Bridgewater for a third

Smith has the skins on the wall as a starter, a former #1 pick but also older than Cam at the time of the trade. His salary was $17m for one year at the time of the deal.

Taylor and Bridgewater are more athletic club taking them closer to Cam in that respect, but are also younger, cheaper and have less starts/wins.

Flacco is older, immobile and saddled with a larger contract. I don't think he compares that well.

If I was going to guess, I'd say he falls somewhere in the Alex Smith range of a 3rd and either a player who can contribute or another mid round pick (say a 5th just for the hell of it).
 

AmerVet

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A friend of mine who works at Clemson said that the Panthers have been keeping a strong eye on Lawrence and like him a whole lot. Not saying it means anything but it could mean something. ijs

I wouldn't be surprised if Burrow isn't on their radar because they're waiting on Traver next year
 

Doug B

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I really wonder what the market will be for Cam Newton. Panthers fans are expecting a boatload of picks but with his age, recent performance, and injury history I’m not so sure it will be the windfall they expect.
You're right. Cam Newton is only signed through the 2020 season. His base salary is $18.6 million, and his dead cap if cut is only $2 million.

I think teams that want Newton would rather make the Panthers cut him, and then try to sign him for a deal that makes his first year hit a good bit lower than $18.6 million.
 

Loose Cannon

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You're right. Cam Newton is only signed through the 2020 season. His base salary is $18.6 million, and his dead cap if cut is only $2 million.

I think teams that want Newton would rather make the Panthers cut him, and then try to sign him for a deal that makes his first year hit a good bit lower than $18.6 million.
$18.6mm is pretty cheap for a QB. Cam's cap hit is the 15th highest next year and that's without Brees/Brady/Rivers/Teddy/Winston (currently free agents) so he'll really end up closer to the 18th highest paid QB. He costs less than Jacoby Brissett. That contract is not really going to be considered burdensome by anyone. He honestly would probably get more in the open market.
 

gavinj

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Rhule tears teams down and then builds from scratch. Expect a fire sale followed by a 1 or 2 win season in 2020. They won’t be trading up in the draft.
 

Doug B

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$18.6mm is pretty cheap for a QB. Cam's cap hit is the 15th highest next year and that's without Brees/Brady/Rivers/Teddy/Winston (currently free agents) so he'll really end up closer to the 18th highest paid QB. He costs less than Jacoby Brissett. That contract is not really going to be considered burdensome by anyone. He honestly would probably get more in the open market.
You're probably right -- I saw what TribuneUK posted about the Chiefs trading for Alex Smith with one season remaining at $17 million. Still, I'd want to have something worked out with Newton ASAP to prevent him from being a one-year rental. That uncertainty about re-signing/extending is likely what kept Alex Smith's draft-pick value fairly low, and I would think the same would apply to Newton.
 

Loose Cannon

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You're probably right -- I saw what TribuneUK posted about the Chiefs trading for Alex Smith with one season remaining at $17 million. Still, I'd want to have something worked out with Newton ASAP to prevent him from being a one-year rental. That uncertainty about re-signing/extending is likely what kept Alex Smith's draft-pick value fairly low, and I would think the same would apply to Newton.
Yeah, agreed. An aging, running QB who is losing his mobility and was never that accurate isn't going to command a huge price tag in the trade market. Maybe a late 2nd or early 3rd, if that?
 

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