Contrary to our memories - Saints do well as big favorites (1 Viewer)

Cincy Saint

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UPDATED: To add a few missed games.

I dread these games where the Saints are big favorites since I can only think about the negative outcomes. But the reality is that the Saints have done very well in these games in terms of results. Now if you bet the games...well that's another story.

Over the last 10 years, Saints have been favored by 10 points or more in 19 games. W/L record is 14-5 in those games. However against the spread, they have been terrible at 6-13.

So watch the game tomorrow, enjoy the win, and don't bet our boys!


RkTmYearDateTimeLTimeOppWeekG#DayResultW or LOTSpreadvs. LineOver/UnderOU Result
1​
NOR
2019​
1:00​
12:00​
CAR
12​
11​
SunW 34-31W
-10​
not covered
46​
over
2​
NOR
2018​
1:00​
12:00​
CLE
2​
2​
SunW 21-18W
-10​
not covered
51​
under
3​
NOR
2018​
1:00​
12:00​
TAM
1​
1​
SunL 40-48L
-10​
not covered
50​
ove
4​
NOR
2017​
12/12/17​
NYJW 31-19W
-16.5​
not covered
5​
NOR
2015​
1:02​
12:02​
TAM
2​
2​
SunL 19-26L
-10​
not covered
47.5​
under
6​
NOR
2014​
10/5/14​
1:03​
12:03​
TAM
5​
5​
SunW 37-31WOT
-10​
not covered
48​
over
7​
NOR
2014​
9/21/14​
1:03​
12:03​
MIN
3​
3​
SunW 20-9W
-10​
covered
49​
under
8​
NOR
2013​
12/29/13​
4:25​
3:25​
TAM
17​
16​
SunW 42-17W
-10.5​
covered
47​
over
9​
NOR
2013​
10/27/13​
1:02​
12:02​
BUF
8​
7​
SunW 35-17W
-10.5​
covered
48.5​
over
10​
NOR
2011​
10/30/11​
1:00​
12:00​
@STL
8​
8​
SunL 21-31L
-14​
not covered
48.5​
over
11​
NOR
2011​
10/23/11​
8:30​
7:30​
IND
7​
7​
SunW 62-7W
-14​
covered
49​
over
12​
NOR
2010​
11/21/10​
4:05​
3:05​
SEA
11​
10​
SunW 34-19W
-11​
covered
45​
over
13​
NOR
2010​
10/24/10​
1:02​
12:02​
CLE
7​
7​
SunL 17-30L
-12.5​
not covered
44​
over
14​
NOR
2010​
10/3/10​
1:03​
12:03​
CAR
4​
4​
SunW 16-14W
-12.5​
not covered
44​
under
15​
NOR
2009​
12/27/09​
1:03​
12:03​
TAM
16​
15​
SunL 17-20LOT
-14​
not covered
48.5​
under
16​
NOR
2009​
11/15/09​
1:00​
12:00​
@STL
10​
9​
SunW 28-23W
-14.5​
not covered
51​
push
17​
NOR
2009​
11/8/09​
4:05​
3:05​
CAR
9​
8​
SunW 30-20W
-13​
not covered
51.5​
under
18​
NOR
2009​
11/2/09​
8:40​
7:40​
ATL
8​
7​
MonW 35-27W
-12​
not covered
56​
over
19​
NOR
2009​
9/13/09​
1:03​
12:03​
DET
1​
1​
SunW 45-27W
-14​
covered
50​
over
 
Last edited:

black_floyd

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That list oddly cuts off at 2014. Considering that we were 16.5 point faves vs. NYJ in 2017, I wouldn't be surprised if more were missing in that list.

 

black_floyd

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Tomorrow we'll see the dawn of the newest position in years, the Yeetback.
 

kizzy821

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The more I think about it, the less confident I feel. Hopefully my fretting will be for nothing. I wish it was at noon.
 
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Cincy Saint

Cincy Saint

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That list oddly cuts off at 2014. Considering that we were 16.5 point faves vs. NYJ in 2017, I wouldn't be surprised if more were missing in that list.

Thanks, Black Floyd. Between trying to avoid paying for access to Stathead Football (so limited results per query) and becuase their search engine/filters don't work right with favorite (negative) point spreads, a few games were missed. I found the one you mentioned above and a couple more. I will update the original post with the new data.

But the conclusion is the same and even more so on the betting....

+10 favorite:
Game result 14-5
Vs. spread 6-13
 

Saintsphere

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It's just atypical paranoia. Every fan base goes through it.

The same way people always go with the "We play better when the media isn't hyping us up" narrative when in reality, we've been one of the most hyped Super Bowl favorite teams since 2017.
 

Pocket Hercules

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UPDATED: To add a few missed games.

I dread these games where the Saints are big favorites since I can only think about the negative outcomes. But the reality is that the Saints have done very well in these games in terms of results. Now if you bet the games...well that's another story.

Over the last 10 years, Saints have been favored by 10 points or more in 19 games. W/L record is 14-5 in those games. However against the spread, they have been terrible at 6-13.

So watch the game tomorrow, enjoy the win, and don't bet our boys!


RkTmYearDateTimeLTimeOppWeekG#DayResultW or LOTSpreadvs. LineOver/UnderOU Result
1​
NOR
2019​
1:00​
12:00​
CAR
12​
11​
SunW 34-31W
-10​
not covered
46​
over
2​
NOR
2018​
1:00​
12:00​
CLE
2​
2​
SunW 21-18W
-10​
not covered
51​
under
3​
NOR
2018​
1:00​
12:00​
TAM
1​
1​
SunL 40-48L
-10​
not covered
50​
ove
4​
NOR
2017​
12/12/17​
NYJW 31-19W
-16.5​
not covered
5​
NOR
2015​
1:02​
12:02​
TAM
2​
2​
SunL 19-26L
-10​
not covered
47.5​
under
6​
NOR
2014​
10/5/14​
1:03​
12:03​
TAM
5​
5​
SunW 37-31WOT
-10​
not covered
48​
over
7​
NOR
2014​
9/21/14​
1:03​
12:03​
MIN
3​
3​
SunW 20-9W
-10​
covered
49​
under
8​
NOR
2013​
12/29/13​
4:25​
3:25​
TAM
17​
16​
SunW 42-17W
-10.5​
covered
47​
over
9​
NOR
2013​
10/27/13​
1:02​
12:02​
BUF
8​
7​
SunW 35-17W
-10.5​
covered
48.5​
over
10​
NOR
2011​
10/30/11​
1:00​
12:00​
@STL
8​
8​
SunL 21-31L
-14​
not covered
48.5​
over
11​
NOR
2011​
10/23/11​
8:30​
7:30​
IND
7​
7​
SunW 62-7W
-14​
covered
49​
over
12​
NOR
2010​
11/21/10​
4:05​
3:05​
SEA
11​
10​
SunW 34-19W
-11​
covered
45​
over
13​
NOR
2010​
10/24/10​
1:02​
12:02​
CLE
7​
7​
SunL 17-30L
-12.5​
not covered
44​
over
14​
NOR
2010​
10/3/10​
1:03​
12:03​
CAR
4​
4​
SunW 16-14W
-12.5​
not covered
44​
under
15​
NOR
2009​
12/27/09​
1:03​
12:03​
TAM
16​
15​
SunL 17-20LOT
-14​
not covered
48.5​
under
16​
NOR
2009​
11/15/09​
1:00​
12:00​
@STL
10​
9​
SunW 28-23W
-14.5​
not covered
51​
push
17​
NOR
2009​
11/8/09​
4:05​
3:05​
CAR
9​
8​
SunW 30-20W
-13​
not covered
51.5​
under
18​
NOR
2009​
11/2/09​
8:40​
7:40​
ATL
8​
7​
MonW 35-27W
-12​
not covered
56​
over
19​
NOR
2009​
9/13/09​
1:03​
12:03​
DET
1​
1​
SunW 45-27W
-14​
covered
50​
over
Thanks for putting this together. To be honest, I think the data confirms the paranoia more than it dispels it, even the W-L record SU. 14-5 doesn't feel like a good outcome against teams you are 10 point favs against headed into the game.
 

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