Contrary to our memories - Saints do well as big favorites (1 Viewer)

[Cincy Saint]

UPDATED: To add a few missed games.

I dread these games where the Saints are big favorites since I can only think about the negative outcomes. But the reality is that the Saints have done very well in these games in terms of results. Now if you bet the games...well that's another story.

Over the last 10 years, Saints have been favored by 10 points or more in 19 games. W/L record is 14-5 in those games. However against the spread, they have been terrible at 6-13.

So watch the game tomorrow, enjoy the win, and don't bet our boys!

Rk

Tm

Year

Date

Time

LTime

Opp

Week

G#

Day

Result

W or L

OT

Spread

vs. Line

Over/Under

OU Result

1​

NOR

2019​

11/24/19​

1:00​

12:00​

CAR

12​

11​

Sun

W 34-31

W

-10​

not covered

46​

over

2​

NOR

2018​

9/16/18​

1:00​

12:00​

CLE

2​

2​

Sun

W 21-18

W

-10​

not covered

51​

under

3​

NOR

2018​

9/9/18​

1:00​

12:00​

TAM

1​

1​

Sun

L 40-48

L

-10​

not covered

50​

ove

4​

NOR

2017​

12/12/17​

NYJ

W 31-19

W

-16.5​

not covered

5​

NOR

2015​

9/20/15​

1:02​

12:02​

TAM

2​

2​

Sun

L 19-26

L

-10​

not covered

47.5​

under

6​

NOR

2014​

10/5/14​

1:03​

12:03​

TAM

5​

5​

Sun

W 37-31

W

OT

-10​

not covered

48​

over

7​

NOR

2014​

9/21/14​

1:03​

12:03​

MIN

3​

3​

Sun

W 20-9

W

-10​

covered

49​

under

8​

NOR

2013​

12/29/13​

4:25​

3:25​

TAM

17​

16​

Sun

W 42-17

W

-10.5​

covered

47​

over

9​

NOR

2013​

10/27/13​

1:02​

12:02​

BUF

8​

7​

Sun

W 35-17

W

-10.5​

covered

48.5​

over

10​

NOR

2011​

10/30/11​

1:00​

12:00​

@

STL

8​

8​

Sun

L 21-31

L

-14​

not covered

48.5​

over

11​

NOR

2011​

10/23/11​

8:30​

7:30​

IND

7​

7​

Sun

W 62-7

W

-14​

covered

49​

over

12​

NOR

2010​

11/21/10​

4:05​

3:05​

SEA

11​

10​

Sun

W 34-19

W

-11​

covered

45​

over

13​

NOR

2010​

10/24/10​

1:02​

12:02​

CLE

7​

7​

Sun

L 17-30

L

-12.5​

not covered

44​

over

14​

NOR

2010​

10/3/10​

1:03​

12:03​

CAR

4​

4​

Sun

W 16-14

W

-12.5​

not covered

44​

under

15​

NOR

2009​

12/27/09​

1:03​

12:03​

TAM

16​

15​

Sun

L 17-20

L

OT

-14​

not covered

48.5​

under

16​

NOR

2009​

11/15/09​

1:00​

12:00​

@

STL

10​

9​

Sun

W 28-23

W

-14.5​

not covered

51​

push

17​

NOR

2009​

11/8/09​

4:05​

3:05​

CAR

9​

8​

Sun

W 30-20

W

-13​

not covered

51.5​

under

18​

NOR

2009​

11/2/09​

8:40​

7:40​

ATL

8​

7​

Mon

W 35-27

W

-12​

not covered

56​

over

19​

NOR

2009​

9/13/09​

1:03​

12:03​

DET

1​

1​

Sun

W 45-27

W

-14​

covered

50​

over

 

[boutte]

NEVER bet on the Saints.

 

[black_floyd]

That list oddly cuts off at 2014. Considering that we were 16.5 point faves vs. NYJ in 2017, I wouldn't be surprised if more were missing in that list.

2017 Week 15 NFL Games: Jets Saints Point Spread Line Movement -

Betting analysis for the 2017 NFL Football season matchup between NY Jets and New Orleans. Includes ats, over/under and straight up odds analysis.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[BreesusSaves]

It is really only third string backups who destroy the Saints.

Luckily for us, Denver doesn't have a QB at all.

Checkmate.

 

[greg8710]

NEVER bet on the Saints.

I put a couple hundred down on the Saints winning it all during our Kamara draft year. That was tough

 

[black_floyd]

Tomorrow we'll see the dawn of the newest position in years, the Yeetback.

 

[kizzy821]

The more I think about it, the less confident I feel. Hopefully my fretting will be for nothing. I wish it was at noon.

 

[Cincy Saint]

That list oddly cuts off at 2014. Considering that we were 16.5 point faves vs. NYJ in 2017, I wouldn't be surprised if more were missing in that list.

2017 Week 15 NFL Games: Jets Saints Point Spread Line Movement -

Betting analysis for the 2017 NFL Football season matchup between NY Jets and New Orleans. Includes ats, over/under and straight up odds analysis.

www.teamrankings.com

Thanks, Black Floyd. Between trying to avoid paying for access to Stathead Football (so limited results per query) and becuase their search engine/filters don't work right with favorite (negative) point spreads, a few games were missed. I found the one you mentioned above and a couple more. I will update the original post with the new data.

But the conclusion is the same and even more so on the betting....

+10 favorite:
Game result 14-5
Vs. spread 6-13

 

[Saintsphere]

It's just atypical paranoia. Every fan base goes through it.

The same way people always go with the "We play better when the media isn't hyping us up" narrative when in reality, we've been one of the most hyped Super Bowl favorite teams since 2017.

 

[Poison]

I bet $50 on the Saints to cover the line.

Our Defence shouldn’t let them score. Surely.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

UPDATED: To add a few missed games.

I dread these games where the Saints are big favorites since I can only think about the negative outcomes. But the reality is that the Saints have done very well in these games in terms of results. Now if you bet the games...well that's another story.

Over the last 10 years, Saints have been favored by 10 points or more in 19 games. W/L record is 14-5 in those games. However against the spread, they have been terrible at 6-13.

So watch the game tomorrow, enjoy the win, and don't bet our boys!

Rk

Tm

Year

Date

Time

LTime

Opp

Week

G#

Day

Result

W or L

OT

Spread

vs. Line

Over/Under

OU Result

1​

NOR

2019​

11/24/19​

1:00​

12:00​

CAR

12​

11​

Sun

W 34-31

W

-10​

not covered

46​

over

2​

NOR

2018​

9/16/18​

1:00​

12:00​

CLE

2​

2​

Sun

W 21-18

W

-10​

not covered

51​

under

3​

NOR

2018​

9/9/18​

1:00​

12:00​

TAM

1​

1​

Sun

L 40-48

L

-10​

not covered

50​

ove

4​

NOR

2017​

12/12/17​

NYJ

W 31-19

W

-16.5​

not covered

5​

NOR

2015​

9/20/15​

1:02​

12:02​

TAM

2​

2​

Sun

L 19-26

L

-10​

not covered

47.5​

under

6​

NOR

2014​

10/5/14​

1:03​

12:03​

TAM

5​

5​

Sun

W 37-31

W

OT

-10​

not covered

48​

over

7​

NOR

2014​

9/21/14​

1:03​

12:03​

MIN

3​

3​

Sun

W 20-9

W

-10​

covered

49​

under

8​

NOR

2013​

12/29/13​

4:25​

3:25​

TAM

17​

16​

Sun

W 42-17

W

-10.5​

covered

47​

over

9​

NOR

2013​

10/27/13​

1:02​

12:02​

BUF

8​

7​

Sun

W 35-17

W

-10.5​

covered

48.5​

over

10​

NOR

2011​

10/30/11​

1:00​

12:00​

@

STL

8​

8​

Sun

L 21-31

L

-14​

not covered

48.5​

over

11​

NOR

2011​

10/23/11​

8:30​

7:30​

IND

7​

7​

Sun

W 62-7

W

-14​

covered

49​

over

12​

NOR

2010​

11/21/10​

4:05​

3:05​

SEA

11​

10​

Sun

W 34-19

W

-11​

covered

45​

over

13​

NOR

2010​

10/24/10​

1:02​

12:02​

CLE

7​

7​

Sun

L 17-30

L

-12.5​

not covered

44​

over

14​

NOR

2010​

10/3/10​

1:03​

12:03​

CAR

4​

4​

Sun

W 16-14

W

-12.5​

not covered

44​

under

15​

NOR

2009​

12/27/09​

1:03​

12:03​

TAM

16​

15​

Sun

L 17-20

L

OT

-14​

not covered

48.5​

under

16​

NOR

2009​

11/15/09​

1:00​

12:00​

@

STL

10​

9​

Sun

W 28-23

W

-14.5​

not covered

51​

push

17​

NOR

2009​

11/8/09​

4:05​

3:05​

CAR

9​

8​

Sun

W 30-20

W

-13​

not covered

51.5​

under

18​

NOR

2009​

11/2/09​

8:40​

7:40​

ATL

8​

7​

Mon

W 35-27

W

-12​

not covered

56​

over

19​

NOR

2009​

9/13/09​

1:03​

12:03​

DET

1​

1​

Sun

W 45-27

W

-14​

covered

50​

over

Thanks for putting this together. To be honest, I think the data confirms the paranoia more than it dispels it, even the W-L record SU. 14-5 doesn't feel like a good outcome against teams you are 10 point favs against headed into the game.