COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (12 Viewers)

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DaveXA said:
I agree with the sentiment, but that should be the tutor, school and school board's responsibility.
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To pull her from school? The tutor called my wife at 845am when she go the results. My wife called school, she was removed from class until wife got there to pick up and an email went out to the 3 kids that sit in her desk group ( but they had masks on as well that am )

No, its the parents responsibility to act accordingly when the child comes in direct contact with a positive COVID 19 person.

Unfortunately, that doesnt happen for a myriad of reasons, being the ability to take off work ( if my daughter was younger and couldnt stay home alone ) , selfishness, political leans...whatever - point being its incumbent upon the parents to make the proper call.

The school would have never known had we not said a word. ( this is private tutor- not school issued tutor )
 
Arathrael said:
That's about it. The reporting is all over the place, mostly skewing towards inappropriately asserting that it is 70% more transmissible, when that's an estimate based on a fair few assumptions.

There's a fairly balanced overview of the range of views here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...perts-urge-caution-over-new-covid-mutation-uk

Key quote for me: "The question is: is this virus being boosted by a coming new wave in the region concerned [south-east England], or is this virus responsible for creating this wave in the first place? That’s an important difference.”

That's where the particular concern is coming from. We had a lockdown here - not a completely stringent one, schools were still open for example - but an initially effective one, from November 5th to December 2rd. If you have a look at the cases plot on the government site - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases - you can see very clearly where it kicks in with the rate of new cases starting to drop sharply about five days after it started. But you can also see that decline starts to tail off, stops entirely, and begins to rise again in late November, before the lockdown ended.

The FT has an article (here, but I think it may be behind a paywall) breaking that down across regions, and it's that area in particular, south-east England, that's largely responsible for that trend. Only in that region did case numbers start to rise again during that lockdown (the rate of decline slowed a bit elsewhere, but it never flattened, let alone started to rise again).

The rates then continued to rise rapidly in the region, including in the parts of it that were in tier 3 (the most restricted at that point) after the lockdown finished.

So the question is whether that trend is down to lockdown measures being inadequate and/or not being fully adhered to - and there was some indication from mobility indexes that people were starting to move around more towards the end of November in London, for example - or this strain of the virus being so much more transmissible those lockdown measures were no longer adequate, or a combination of the two.

The UK government has been asserting that it's down to the virus strain, but frankly, the UK government hasn't got a clue. They're asserting their tiered measures work, but that's demonstrably false - that's why we had to have another lockdown in November as it was, because the tiered measures aren't sufficiently effective. They then exited that lockdown too soon, so we went into December with still high levels in the community, and essentially the same measures that had already proven inadequate to control transmission prior to November. You're then looking at the run up to Christmas, with London itself - which many of the surrounding region will be travelling in and out of - remaining in tier 2, allowing bars and restaurants that serve food to remain open, and work gatherings to continue. Is it surprising that case rates shot right back up?

So from my point of view, it's entirely possible that the increased spread is largely, if not entirely, down to the UK government's measures being repeatedly inadequate, and their continually poor messaging leading to increasing levels of non-compliance. It's certainly still possible that this strain does transmit more readily, but we need much better data to determine how much. The UK government's presumption that it can't possibly be their failure at all and must be down to a new strain definitely should not be relied upon.


Yes, as I understand it there's two concerns, antigenic escape, which could mean the vaccines and/or the immune system of people exposed to earlier strains no longer being as effective against the new strain, and the possibility of it being more transmissible meaning existing measures are inadequate to prevent exponential spread. If it was the latter, even if vaccines remained effective, we'd be looking at even more stringent measures needed to prevent healthcare systems being overwhelmed while vaccines are still being rolled out. Plus the more the virus is allowed to spread, the greater the possibility of future mutations.

So the possibility should definitely be taken seriously, and I'm not surprised a lot of the world is essentially quarantining the UK right now on the off chance they can slow or prevent the strain taking hold in their nations if it does prove to be bad (although this has apparently taken the UK government completely by surprise; you'd think it would have occurred to them that telling the world the UK has a strain that's even more transmissible might make the world think about closing the gates to the UK, but apparently that just didn't occur to them).

But I wouldn't be freaking out until we have real data.
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To add to the "mutation" part-

Caught something yesterday...so basically the virus has the "spike protein" that enables it to invade host cells.

This spike protein is ESSENTIAL to the mRNA virus and its ability to infect AND the spike protein RNA( the "code" that builds the spike ) is SET...in that if just ONE letter alters, its no longer producing the "spike" it needs to infect cells. So while mutations happen, its almost as if the portion of the RNA t( the code ) hat builds the spike is OFF LIMITS to mutations.

And the current mRNA vaccines target the spike protein to effectively render it useless.

Crazy to think, but a virus KNOWS what it ABSOLUTELY CANNOT alter for if it did, would possibly make it inert.
 
on another travel note.

My sister flies out tomorrow- initially it was Rome-Frankfurt-Denver.

Now, its Florence-Munich-DC-Denver.

Anyway she said to go from Florence to Munich - she has to not only verify screening questions, but has to go thru 2 checkpoints in the Airports to board the plane.
To her dismay, once in States...nothing. lol.
 
efil4stnias said:
To add to the "mutation" part-

Caught something yesterday...so basically the virus has the "spike protein" that enables it to invade host cells.

This spike protein is ESSENTIAL to the mRNA virus and its ability to infect AND the spike protein RNA( the "code" that builds the spike ) is SET...in that if just ONE letter alters, its no longer producing the "spike" it needs to infect cells. So while mutations happen, its almost as if the portion of the RNA t( the code ) hat builds the spike is OFF LIMITS to mutations.

And the current mRNA vaccines target the spike protein to effectively render it useless.

Crazy to think, but a virus KNOWS what it ABSOLUTELY CANNOT alter for if it did, would possibly make it inert.
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There was a great article written about this in Nature in September: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

Well worth a read for those interested in the subject.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say that if one letter is altered the virus doesn't produce the spike protein though, unfortunately. That article, for example, mentions how a "mutation in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) allowed the virus to escape recognition by some neutralizing antibodies". And I also saw this preprint paper from ten days ago which is specifically about the "risk of evolutionary escape from neutralizing antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein". It's worth reading as well (particularly the discussion section), but it has this summary: "SARS-CoV-2 will evolve quickly to evade widely deployed spike RBD-targeting monoclonal antibodies, requiring combinations that rely on at least three antibodies targeting distinct epitopes to suppress viral immune evasion."

It's a preprint that hasn't been peer-reviewed, so do take it for what it's worth, but it shows there at least exists an informed point of view that the possibility of immune escape through mutation is something we do need to be concerned about.
 
efil4stnias said:
To add to the "mutation" part-

Caught something yesterday...so basically the virus has the "spike protein" that enables it to invade host cells.

This spike protein is ESSENTIAL to the mRNA virus and its ability to infect AND the spike protein RNA( the "code" that builds the spike ) is SET...in that if just ONE letter alters, its no longer producing the "spike" it needs to infect cells. So while mutations happen, its almost as if the portion of the RNA t( the code ) hat builds the spike is OFF LIMITS to mutations.

And the current mRNA vaccines target the spike protein to effectively render it useless.

Crazy to think, but a virus KNOWS what it ABSOLUTELY CANNOT alter for if it did, would possibly make it inert.
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Careful now. You're injecting too much basic science into this for some people to believe.
 
efil4stnias said:
To pull her from school? The tutor called my wife at 845am when she go the results. My wife called school, she was removed from class until wife got there to pick up and an email went out to the 3 kids that sit in her desk group ( but they had masks on as well that am )

No, its the parents responsibility to act accordingly when the child comes in direct contact with a positive COVID 19 person.

Unfortunately, that doesnt happen for a myriad of reasons, being the ability to take off work ( if my daughter was younger and couldnt stay home alone ) , selfishness, political leans...whatever - point being its incumbent upon the parents to make the proper call.

The school would have never known had we not said a word. ( this is private tutor- not school issued tutor )
Click to expand...

I meant that the parent notifies the tutor/school and it's the tutor/school's responsibility to notify the public. It's not the parents' job to notify the public. It's their job to notify the schools.

But apparently, in a lot of school districts, they tell parents zilch about infected students on their campuses. It's next to impossible to find out if a student in my kid's class was one of the infected (at least in Fairfax County). I mean, it's not any effect on me because my kid has been doing school from home anyway. But if she were, we'd never know.
 
DaveXA said:
I meant that the parent notifies the tutor/school and it's the tutor/school's responsibility to notify the public. It's not the parents' job to notify the public. It's their job to notify the schools.

But apparently, in a lot of school districts, they tell parents zilch about infected students on their campuses. It's next to impossible to find out if a student in my kid's class was one of the infected (at least in Fairfax County). I mean, it's not any effect on me because my kid has been doing school from home anyway. But if she were, we'd never know.
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schools aren't allowed to disclose specific infected students - that too often creates an elaborate (and slow moving) dance that admins do
 
Arathrael said:
There was a great article written about this in Nature in September: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

Well worth a read for those interested in the subject.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say that if one letter is altered the virus doesn't produce the spike protein though, unfortunately. That article, for example, mentions how a "mutation in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) allowed the virus to escape recognition by some neutralizing antibodies". And I also saw this preprint paper from ten days ago which is specifically about the "risk of evolutionary escape from neutralizing antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein". It's worth reading as well (particularly the discussion section), but it has this summary: "SARS-CoV-2 will evolve quickly to evade widely deployed spike RBD-targeting monoclonal antibodies, requiring combinations that rely on at least three antibodies targeting distinct epitopes to suppress viral immune evasion."

It's a preprint that hasn't been peer-reviewed, so do take it for what it's worth, but it shows there at least exists an informed point of view that the possibility of immune escape through mutation is something we do need to be concerned about.
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It is of course. But then it comes down to how easily it would be to tweak the vaccine much like they do the flu virus and reimmunize, and also how well the body adapts and recognizes it. Once this burns through the population, and the vaccine will help that, if Covid comes back mutated will it still be the novel and life threatening virus it is now, or will it be a more mild disease as the body won’t have a perfect solution for it, but will be able to keep it a a a milder infection? These are the things that we don’t know yet. If it does return as a more mild strain, then would it be worth reimmunizing?
 
DaveXA said:
I get that, but ultimately, that policy is harmful to public health. It doesn't work during a pandemic.
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Heck admins don’t know a lot of times. I mean my wife (admin) is already irritated with the whole 825 just got a call my Covid test positive not going to be in thing. It’s not like the admin is getting any warnings here either.
 
Goatman Saint said:
Heck admins don’t know a lot of times. I mean my wife (admin) is already irritated with the whole 825 just got a call my Covid test positive not going to be in thing. It’s not like the admin is getting any warnings here either.
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I just don't understand how contact tracing can work with the schools aren't going to facilitate the exchange of crucial information. I mean, I don't know. Our school district hasnt been on site for the large majority of students since last spring. What are schools doing to protect students actually in the classrooms?
 
Goatman Saint said:
It is of course. But then it comes down to how easily it would be to tweak the vaccine much like they do the flu virus and reimmunize, and also how well the body adapts and recognizes it. Once this burns through the population, and the vaccine will help that, if Covid comes back mutated will it still be the novel and life threatening virus it is now, or will it be a more mild disease as the body won’t have a perfect solution for it, but will be able to keep it a a a milder infection? These are the things that we don’t know yet. If it does return as a more mild strain, then would it be worth reimmunizing?
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Side note. There is work being done on a universal flu vaccine. Only caught part of it on 60 minutes.
 

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