COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (9 Viewers)

[J.T.]

Following up on the potential impact of natural herd immunity now. The CDC has a map that you can toggle between overall rate of cases in each state since the start of the pandemic and the last 7 days. The maps are very interesting. It is not a 100% correlation, but it is striking. Most states that have been ravaged overall by Covid are not being ravaged now and most states that were not ravaged by Covid all year, are being ravaged now. It is more that happenstance, the math works overall, but there are outliers.

Overall cases since the start:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Cases last 7 days:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[Arathrael]

I wonder if the vaccine caused the positive or if she actually got it from someone else after? She's doing the 2 doses vaccine right? Would testing positive between doses affect her timeline for getting the 2nd dose?

Just on that first question: https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/fo...id-19/what-to-know-about-the-covid-19-vaccine

Can you get COVID-19 from the vaccine? Can it cause a false-positive test result?​

​

No, it is not possible to get COVID-19 from this vaccine, and it won’t produce a positive COVID-19 test result. You may feel unwell after getting vaccinated, but this is a sign of your immune system starting to activate to protect you. However, you could still catch the virus after being immunized and before your body’s immune system has reached its full ability to fight the virus. In addition, much like the flu vaccine, COVID-19 vaccines are not 100% effective, which means there is a chance you could contract COVID-19. However, researchers believe you may be less likely to get as sick as you would if you were unvaccinated. If you have been vaccinated and test positive, you should self-isolate, monitor your symptoms and contact your physician.​

​

Edit to add: I assume that answer assumes swab type testing, looking for the genome of the virus. I'd think testing for antibodies might find antibodies following vaccination if the vaccine has caused the production of antibodies, which you'd hope it would.

 

[DaveXA]

Just on that first question: https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/fo...id-19/what-to-know-about-the-covid-19-vaccine

Can you get COVID-19 from the vaccine? Can it cause a false-positive test result?​

​

No, it is not possible to get COVID-19 from this vaccine, and it won’t produce a positive COVID-19 test result. You may feel unwell after getting vaccinated, but this is a sign of your immune system starting to activate to protect you. However, you could still catch the virus after being immunized and before your body’s immune system has reached its full ability to fight the virus. In addition, much like the flu vaccine, COVID-19 vaccines are not 100% effective, which means there is a chance you could contract COVID-19. However, researchers believe you may be less likely to get as sick as you would if you were unvaccinated. If you have been vaccinated and test positive, you should self-isolate, monitor your symptoms and contact your physician.​

​

Edit to add: I assume that answer assumes swab type testing, looking for the genome of the virus. I'd think testing for antibodies might find antibodies following vaccination if the vaccine has caused the production of antibodies, which you'd hope it would.

Yeah, a positive antibody test would make the most sense. Curious what type of test she had. Good post.

 

[SaintJ]

So basically we should have everyone vaccinated by 2025 and reach heard immunity sometime in late 2023.

We are getting more new cases per day than we are giving out vaccines, in case you are keeping score at home.

Anecdotal evidence around the country is that, no matter the storage, shipping and dispensing issues, it is generally a scatalogical show out there. Wildly underfunded state and local health departments, their budgets and human capacities already drained a month ago, are desperately trying to get all this together without any additional federal funding, much less any centralized logistical help.

This is somewhere between wilful national misconduct and, given the societal spread and fatality rates over time, genocide.

 

[J.T.]

My wife got her 1st vaccine shot......then tested positive 10 days later. I'm not seeing the huge upside to the vaccine at the moment haha.

I assume it was the Pfizer vaccine, if so, it is between 50-60% effective after one dose AND about three weeks of time. (According to the data they published.) I don't think it has much effectiveness after just 10 days, but it will could make her symptoms less and she likely started fighting off the virus faster because of the vaccine. An antibody test, I agree with the post above, could have shown a "positive" and that could be the issue also. With all of that, even after the two doses, both Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective, but that still leaves that 5% number. The 5% look like, from the studies, to be much milder cases.

 

[bclemms]

Following up on the potential impact of natural herd immunity now. The CDC has a map that you can toggle between overall rate of cases in each state since the start of the pandemic and the last 7 days. The maps are very interesting. It is not a 100% correlation, but it is striking. Most states that have been ravaged overall by Covid are not being ravaged now and most states that were not ravaged by Covid all year, are being ravaged now. It is more that happenstance, the math works overall, but there are outliers.

Overall cases since the start:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Cases last 7 days:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Look at latitude. Covid started in the big cities on the coasts for obvious reasons but since the country has been well seeded it's been remarkably consistent moving from south to north in the spring then north to south in the fall. The southern states were the hardest hit coming into the fall but after the huge run in the North they have fallen behind but will be playing catch up the next couple of months. Also noticed how the northern states went from flaming out of control to really good conditions as soon as they went into a deep freeze? It's been that way all over the world since the beginning.

 

[Doug B]

Also noticed how the northern states went from flaming out of control to really good conditions as soon as they went into a deep freeze? It's been that way all over the world since the beginning.

I wonder why cold-climate people huddling together indoors doesn't cause greater COVID spread? Isn't that a big vector for the most viruses that cause the common cold?

 

[where yat brah]

btw, I am now one week post Moderna 1st shot.
No pain from injection, ever. No side effects of any sort.

 

[efil4stnias]

btw, I am now one week post Moderna 1st shot.
No pain from injection, ever. No side effects of any sort.

What, no tail? horns?

 

[efil4stnias]

I agree we are absolutely through the worst of it by then. Actually, think we'll be well past the worst of it by April at the latest with the possibility we are past the worst by the end of January, particularly if people buy into the 100 day mask campaign. The summer months combined with immunity levels are going to really knock it back. However, it will still be around for almost all of 2021 at this rate at levels unacceptable to most countries but compared to what we have seen, it will feel extremely minimal.

No matter...COVID will be an "endemic" - it will not be fully eradicated and gone any time soon.

 

[bonnjer]

What, no tail? horns?

It takes 12 days for mutant powers to kick in. He'll be flying about on Monday or so.

 

[superchuck500]

Situation in the UK is bad. Keep in mind the UK population is roughly 1/5 of the US. So multiply these metrics x5 to get a sense of the scale.

 

[Goatman Saint]

LA county hospitals running out of oxygen.

Oxygen supply issues forced five Los Angeles-area hospitals to declare an 'internal disaster'

Oxygen supply issues led at least five Los Angeles County hospitals to declare an "internal disaster" Sunday, which included turning patients away.

www.cnn.com

 

[Goatman Saint]

I honestly don’t think that what the UK is doing is all that bad of an idea. 60% protection is better than 0, and of that other 40% the severe cases should be minimized which is of upmost priority.

 

[0rion]

These have already been answ

I wonder if the vaccine caused the positive or if she actually got it from someone else after? She's doing the 2 doses vaccine right? Would testing positive between doses affect her timeline for getting the 2nd dose?

Not sure yet on it effecting her timeline of her 2nd dose. Not even sure the 2nd shot is going to be necessary now but that's something she's figuring out. She's on day 5 of symptoms but so far they're all head cold symptoms and not in her lungs. I'm on the count down again as to if/when I get sick. If I make it through this one it'll be a miracle. We all of course spent Xmas and Xmas Eve together....just our family. We don't hang out with anyone else these days. My son was positive first week of November and I made it through that one after working on his car all day the day he started showing symptoms. Hopefully I can catch lightning in a bottle again.