COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (7 Viewers)

[B4YOU]

All the new Global Studies on Schools outside the US suggest keeping schools closed this Fall is senseless / not based in science, and that decision for the US needs to have politics taken out of the equation....

Based on the Science, Schools need to re-open.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

However, as weeks turned into months, pediatricians and educators began to voice concern that school closures were doing more harm than good, especially as evidence mounted that children rarely develop severe symptoms from COVID-19.

Continued closures risk “scarring the life chances of a generation of young people,” according to an open letter published this month and signed by more than 1500 members of the United Kingdom’s Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH). Virtual education is often a pale shadow of the real thing and left many parents juggling jobs and childcare. Lower-income children who depend on school meals were going hungry. And there were hints that children were suffering increased abuse, now that school staff could no longer spot and report early signs of it. It was time, a growing chorus said, to bring children back to school.

When Science looked at reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel, some encouraging patterns emerged. Together, they suggest a combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home.

Several studies have found that overall, people under age 18 are between one-third and one-half as likely as adults to contract the virus, and the risk appears lowest for the youngest children.

In six elementary schools, they found a total of three children who had caught the virus, likely from family members, and then attended school while infected. But, as far as the researchers could tell, those younger children didn’t pass the virus on to any close contacts.

School openings across globe suggest ways to keep coronavirus at bay, despite outbreaks

Science explores reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel

www.sciencemag.org

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...86aff4-afb6-11ea-856d-5054296735e5_story.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

What are the measures that should be taken in schools to limit the spread? It's easy to just post an article and make a simple state of "schools should open". It's about as thoughtful as saying "war is bad". Also there is a lack of data on the spread of Covid-19 in school environments.

From the Science article:

“It’s still a bit speculative,” says Fontanet, who shared results from the high school on 23 April and from the elementary schools on 29 June, both on the preprint server medRxiv. But high school students “have to be very careful. They have mild disease, but they are contagious.” Children younger than 11 or 12, on the other hand, “probably don’t transmit very well. They are close to each other in schools, but that is not enough” to fuel spread. At the same time, scientists note that children have more contacts than adults, especially at school, which could offset the lower odds they will spread the pathogen.

This is from Science article link to "Several studies have found" to the ?unpublished? UK study:

Specific evidence in regards to transmission in schools is lacking, due to rapid shutdown at the start of the pandemic. A systematic review of the impact of school closures on the transmission of SARS and COVID-19 found only equivocal evidence for their impact in controlling transmission.

A study from an outbreak around a French secondary school has received some attention, as they found 40% of pupils and staff became infected with no difference between the two groups. What is important in this study, is that almost all the students in the study were aged 15-17 years of age, who appear to have similar disease characteristics to adults. Of the children 14 and under, a very small proportion got infected (it’s not clear how many were students and how many were family contacts). We cannot derive useful information from this study about younger children at present.

The Bloomberg headline is misleading. The study includes a total of "3 probably infected children" in a population of 510 students at 6 schools.

 

[RazorOye]

I think the best plan is to keep students organized into smaller groups that do everything together, at least to start the year. So if one tests positive, you send 10 kids home, not 1,000. Depending on the school environs, you could then open it up as the year goes on.

it's called 'cohorting' (maybe there are other names for it) and it's definitely on the table in schools and districts as a means of keeping the virus contained and more traceable

 

[RazorOye]

My youngest is in preschool, so that's a different animal.

yep...

our youngest is 3 and she will start kindergarten this Fall.

Chances of her being able to abide by social distancing and keeping on her mask?

Uhhhh.... yea.

And my wife teaches a Grade 2/3 split. It's not gonna be easy.

We are expecting a rocky time in the house soon into the school year.

 

[Infoman]

I'm not vastly overstating anything... you can do a quick Google for "school covid studies" and you'll get this information everywhere from every type of source... I'm just putting it out there, because a lot of the discussion here on this topic was not taking it into consideration.

The data we have right now on Schools has been pretty consistent across multiple sources. Nearly all data points to young kids not spreading it, and being asymptomatic... they are far less likely to catch it, and then way less likely to spread it... most that do get it, get it from home, and again, don't spread it.

Again, just more context.

I don't have kids in school... so this doesn't impact me... but if we are going to have discussions and make decisions based on science and data... it has to go both ways.

In this case, the data more than generally is Pro-re-opening schools from what I can gather from reliable data sources.

 

[bclemms]

I'm not vastly overstating anything... you can do a quick Google for "school covid studies" and you'll get this information everywhere from every type of source... I'm just putting it out there, because a lot of the discussion here on this topic was not taking it into consideration.

The data we have right now on Schools has been pretty consistent across multiple sources. Nearly all data points to young kids not spreading it, and being asymptomatic... they are far less likely to catch it, and then way less likely to spread it... most that do get it, get it from home, and again, don't spread it.

Again, just more context.

I don't have kids in school... so this doesn't impact me... but if we are going to have discussions and make decisions based on science and data... it has to go both ways.

In this case, the data more than generally is Pro-re-opening schools from what I can gather from reliable data sources.

I agree with you.

My position is this. Until we get cases under control it really doesn't matter what has happened everywhere else. There is too much virus to even be considering it at the moment.

 

[SharonT]

All the new Global Studies on Schools outside the US suggest keeping schools closed this Fall is senseless / not based in science, and that decision for the US needs to have politics taken out of the equation....

Based on the Science, Schools need to re-open.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

However, as weeks turned into months, pediatricians and educators began to voice concern that school closures were doing more harm than good, especially as evidence mounted that children rarely develop severe symptoms from COVID-19.

Continued closures risk “scarring the life chances of a generation of young people,” according to an open letter published this month and signed by more than 1500 members of the United Kingdom’s Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH). Virtual education is often a pale shadow of the real thing and left many parents juggling jobs and childcare. Lower-income children who depend on school meals were going hungry. And there were hints that children were suffering increased abuse, now that school staff could no longer spot and report early signs of it. It was time, a growing chorus said, to bring children back to school.

When Science looked at reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel, some encouraging patterns emerged. Together, they suggest a combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home.

Several studies have found that overall, people under age 18 are between one-third and one-half as likely as adults to contract the virus, and the risk appears lowest for the youngest children.

In six elementary schools, they found a total of three children who had caught the virus, likely from family members, and then attended school while infected. But, as far as the researchers could tell, those younger children didn’t pass the virus on to any close contacts.

School openings across globe suggest ways to keep coronavirus at bay, despite outbreaks
Science explores reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel

www.sciencemag.org

So much supposition...look for the actual facts and then trace those back to the dates of the original event. I don't know how this article passed the screening process to be published, honestly. Clickbait meant to capitalize on people's worries.

A whole lot of this: " But, as far as the researchers could tell, "

But the bottom line is: "Data about the outcomes are scarce."

We have to go by what we know about how this virus is transmitted, and need a realtime, continuously updated report that accurately represents the risk of each community. How many are currently infected and are community members staying in their "pod"?

This virus is not magic - it can only survive if it finds a human host in order to replicate and spread. If you're sure it's not in your area, and no one will bring it in, you should be fine. But we don't know for sure unless people (including children) are tested systematically, regardless of symptoms. It doesn't have to be left to fate.

 

[St. Widge]

So some potentially good news for New Orleans. Apparently the City has collected the same amount of tax revenue through May this year as it did through May last year. And it is the same percentage of the budget. Numbers not in for June yet, but it's not the total budget collapse that we feared so far.

This is an article from The Lense that talks about it. Caution: May contain political content.

https://thelensnola.org/2020/07/08/...nz6Asgf2BdA84RBuohHJpWB6xdb1zvbGxc5tr0eH7wxAk

 

[CoolBrees]

Here in Oregon, despite our solid reaction to the virus, we have done a woeful job on education. But it isn’t the department’s fault really. Along with the guidelines for reopening, they were informed by the State that, due to expected tax shortfall, they would be receiving a 23% reduction in funds. From the general account.

So after each district eats that, they have a decision to make. They have to submit their plan for approval by the state, and they have to meet guidelines of 6’ distance and masks. No lunch room, packaged meals only, Or distance learning or a mix of both. Have your plan back by end of July.

So far PPS (Portland public) is looking like we will go with two days in class, two days distance learning and going longer years.

As an executive, this makes my head hurt. You can’t cut off an arm and tell them they need to grow a new leg in 2 months. And the State will not pass any further instruction. So we are twisting in the wind with public Zoom meetings and focus groups, trying to increase egg production by strangling the chicken. Half the kids in the classroom and half at home and then switching each day. Great plan on paper. Gets really ugly when there is an outbreak. Oh and we haven’t looked at the cost of putting WAPs, TVs, cameras, etc. in all classrooms, much less outfitting (Or at least proving how) every kid in the district with WiFi and a laptop. In two months. With 23% less than last year.

But at the end of the day, I can’t get upset. They are working their arse off trying to educate kids as best they can with no financial support at all. They have no resources, no money, no guidance, and no help coming from the Feds. Like principals are now experts in creating and maintaining atmospheric critical environments, sourcing vendors and getting them to bid through the public bidding process. In two months.

I set up manufacturing operations for a living. At first blush, I would tell a District this big you need $750 million just for infrastructure improvements. Another $500MM for equipment. Two year design and develop through community and three to five year timeline. Not happening.

this is the time for private business to step up. If you have ever wanted a government small enough to drown in a bathtub, your moment to prove that the private sector can do what the government does, but only better, has arrived.

Our school systems need a bailout. Maybe some of the banks we gave 100’s of billions to, or the auto industry that we saved, or the S&L industry in the 90’s, or environmental disasters (I’m looking at you BP) could reach back and give to the system where their entire workforce comes from. Seriously. 100 billion from companies that got bailed out, free computers from Microsoft, with free processors from Intel. Private utilities should not be able to charge public entities- ever.

When we bailed them out, it wasn’t like times were great for us and we just gave extra cash. We were in the middle of the second largest financial crisis of the modern times....THAT THEY CREATED. They owe us. They came hat in hand on their private jets to ask for money. Well in my opinion it’s time they repay that favor.

Otherwise, the Feds need to get off their arse and do something. Except DeVos. She just needs to be quiet.

 

[xpuma20x]

In this case, the data more than generally is Pro-re-opening schools from what I can gather from reliable data sources.

I'm not quite sure the data is saying what you think it says.

With that said, there is a huge difference between opening elementary schools and opening high schools. The CDC guidelines for reopening schools is based on elementary levels at best, with only the slightest of nods towards high schools. I went into my school yesterday for a bit and examined one of our average sized rooms. The class had 29 desks in there. If they were spread 6ft (which is now being said it needs to be larger) apart, we could put about 7 desks total. So the question then becomes, where are the other 22 students going? Multiply that by about 80 classrooms or so. In this same thought process, we have buses that arrive with three students per seat and students standing in the aisles. However, CDC guidelines under the best phase levels is 50% normal capacity. Which is about 22 students total per bus, which is already running at about 80 students. So that means buses now have to make 3-4 trips, with mandatory cleaning between each trip.

In a high school setting, its also dang near impossible to do a cohort only group due to the varied levels of graduation pathways. Mandatory 14 day quarantine for everyone that came in contact with a student that was diagnosed with Covid. Lets try to do the math: Student A rides on the bus with 21 other students. They also have 7 classes with 25-30 students per class because we honestly can't do the 6ft thing. Plus 7 teachers. Oh and the hallway where they passed other students, lets say 30% of the school over 7 periods, so lets say 400, but some of those were already previously listed so lets drop that down to 300 for the heck of it. So quick maths on that puts it around 500+ individuals that would now have to be quarantined. I didn't even take into account lunch sessions either. Thankfully since the teachers have to be sent home for 14 days, we can just rely on our wonderful supply of subs. Because we all know there are people lined up to be subs at schools and that line is going to double now that they know they'll be also subbing in a Petri dish and getting paid just slightly over minimum wage.

Oh, not to mention that if a teacher does in fact catch Covid at work, they have to use their own sick days. Even if you could claim workers comp, guess what? It still comes out of your sick days first. Hope you're not a female saving up your sick days for pregnancy leave, oh btw in Louisiana you have to cash out your sick days for pregnancy as well.

I'm not going to speak for elementary schools, because that is not my realm. Someone that works in that area would be better suited to give an opinion on if they can work out school openings. I will say this, while it is by far not a best practice or best scenario, to me, the most logical situations is to offer as much distance learning as possible for the time being. Start now putting together better teach methods for distance learning. Start now trying to figure out how to make it work in the best way you can. We know the outcome of bringing students and staff back right now and its not good. Use this time to increase and better what you can affect, versus what you can't.

 

[Goatman Saint]

My kids both attend a charter school in Orleans Parish. On Monday, we received their plans for the fall. The Phase 2 plan is that our first grader will attend school in person every day. Our sixth grader will attend school twice a week and there will be remote learning the other three days.

If the idea of forcing kids back into school is to allow parents to return to work, two days a week won't allow parents to return to work full time. And, at the very same time, the federal government, through the Secretary of the Department of Education and that person's boss, is now issuing daily threats to withhold federal funding (which the school could absolutely not function without) unless all children return in person to school on a full time basis.

I do not understand how any of this will ever work.

We got an email from Littleton Public Schools a little while ago. In person classes will resume August 13.

Do you have a source for that? Not that I’m questioning, and I do believe you. But before I argue that point with my wife I like to have documentation as well argue with my wife......

 

[0rion]

I'm not quite sure the data is saying what you think it says.

With that said, there is a huge difference between opening elementary schools and opening high schools. The CDC guidelines for reopening schools is based on elementary levels at best, with only the slightest of nods towards high schools. I went into my school yesterday for a bit and examined one of our average sized rooms. The class had 29 desks in there. If they were spread 6ft (which is now being said it needs to be larger) apart, we could put about 7 desks total. So the question then becomes, where are the other 22 students going? Multiply that by about 80 classrooms or so. In this same thought process, we have buses that arrive with three students per seat and students standing in the aisles. However, CDC guidelines under the best phase levels is 50% normal capacity. Which is about 22 students total per bus, which is already running at about 80 students. So that means buses now have to make 3-4 trips, with mandatory cleaning between each trip.

In a high school setting, its also dang near impossible to do a cohort only group due to the varied levels of graduation pathways. Mandatory 14 day quarantine for everyone that came in contact with a student that was diagnosed with Covid. Lets try to do the math: Student A rides on the bus with 21 other students. They also have 7 classes with 25-30 students per class because we honestly can't do the 6ft thing. Plus 7 teachers. Oh and the hallway where they passed other students, lets say 30% of the school over 7 periods, so lets say 400, but some of those were already previously listed so lets drop that down to 300 for the heck of it. So quick maths on that puts it around 500+ individuals that would now have to be quarantined. I didn't even take into account lunch sessions either. Thankfully since the teachers have to be sent home for 14 days, we can just rely on our wonderful supply of subs. Because we all know there are people lined up to be subs at schools and that line is going to double now that they know they'll be also subbing in a Petri dish and getting paid just slightly over minimum wage.

Oh, not to mention that if a teacher does in fact catch Covid at work, they have to use their own sick days. Even if you could claim workers comp, guess what? It still comes out of your sick days first. Hope you're not a female saving up your sick days for pregnancy leave, oh btw in Louisiana you have to cash out your sick days for pregnancy as well.

I'm not going to speak for elementary schools, because that is not my realm. Someone that works in that area would be better suited to give an opinion on if they can work out school openings. I will say this, while it is by far not a best practice or best scenario, to me, the most logical situations is to offer as much distance learning as possible for the time being. Start now putting together better teach methods for distance learning. Start now trying to figure out how to make it work in the best way you can. We know the outcome of bringing students and staff back right now and its not good. Use this time to increase and better what you can affect, versus what you can't.

I don't know why we insist on learning everything the hard way. It's 2020 and the technology is there to do distance learning. I don't think anyone is saying permanently but 6 months of that is a much better plan than rushing kids back to school only to have it end in disaster and paying a heavier price.

 

[xpuma20x]

I don't know why we insist on learning everything the hard way. It's 2020 and the technology is there to do distance learning. I don't think anyone is saying permanently but 6 months of that is a much better plan than rushing kids back to school only to have it end in disaster and paying a heavier price.

The technology is there and if they would spend even the slightest amount of time refining it, that would go a long ways into making the experience so much more palatable for people.

 

[bclemms]

 

[No2DC]

The technology is there and if they would spend even the slightest amount of time refining it, that would go a long ways into making the experience so much more palatable for people.

Technology is a positive part of the equation but learning is also a psychological-social exercise, and I think some of the pro-opening folks are highlighting that in addition to inequitable tech access.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Long time elementary teacher here. I have 32 kids in my class. On a regular arrangement if I put in rows just wide enough to walk through I have maybe 6 feet in the front, now extra room on the sides, and by the time you put in my kidney table, I have a kidney table width along the back for lining up. If we go 6’ center to center I can get 12 max in the room, and that’s leaving no distancing at all for me. That’s the physical setup.

Our substitute pool is always poor and farming out kids is the norm. Our normal 4 subs are all retired teachers and the youngest is 67. Oldest is in her mid 70s. I’m guessing they won’t be jumping up and down to come into a room to sub for a positive Covid case.

I have the sick time to burn. But many simply don’t. A first or second year teacher will not have the days. So there is that issue. But who will pay if we get sent home because of an outbreak? I can assure you if I’m sent home to chill and have to use my sick days there is no way I’m working. I believe in education, but I’m not a fool.

When reading these articles every one of the successful ones talks about a well controlled Covid situation. Hahahahaha. In California? Please. We flattened the curve in my county. It now looks flat like the face of Half Dome. And we aren’t the worst out there.

As we are getting this push to go back 5 days a week, I’ve been talking to parents and the closer it gets the more they are saying whoa. Let’s wait a second. They have done a good job with masks, distancing, making the sacrifices, and now sending their kids out to bring this back home? The whole idea of having a good plan until getting punched in the face is sticking in my mind.