COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) 34,358,269 US cases, 615,958 US deaths.] (9 Viewers)

bclemms

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I have to disagree. My state of Ms. isn't a very densly populated st,but there are others with less dense populations blowing us out of the water. We were also one of the first states giving the vaccine via a walk in appt. The local pharmacy in my neighborhood was also vaccinating Ala. and La, residents. There really is no excuse for Ms. to be dead last.
The one thing Ms does have is Wal-Marts, lots and lots of them. Every Wal-Mart has vaccines. Same with CVS, Walgreens and a dozen other places. Even the small towns have them.

I actually thought the state did a really good job on the vaccine rollout. The State Government played a huge part downplaying the virus and remaining silent on false information being spread and now they're shocked nobody wants the vaccine.



Back in late March and April a TON of people were coming to Ms to get vaccines. The state has had a surplus of vaccines and shortage of willing arms for months.
 

buzd

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The one thing Ms does have is Wal-Marts, lots and lots of them. Every Wal-Mart has vaccines. Same with CVS, Walgreens and a dozen other places. Even the small towns have them.

I actually thought the state did a really good job on the vaccine rollout. The State Government played a huge part downplaying the virus and remaining silent on false information being spread and now they're shocked nobody wants the vaccine.



Back in late March and April a TON of people were coming to Ms to get vaccines. The state has had a surplus of vaccines and shortage of willing arms for months.

This is right.
 

faceman

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33 % of those who've received one vaccine are thought to be immune. 88% of those receiving the 2nd dose are believed to be immune according to the latest science. It's not worth the risk to be unvaccinated. This virus is turning out to be downright evil.

If you had the virus before, I wouldn't count on it preventing me from variants like Delta. I would love nothing more to be wrong. If I am the round is on me. If I haven't been vaccinated, I'd be very leery of this new strain,and wouldn't trust having the original virus as protection.
 
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superchuck500

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33 % of those who've received on vaccine are thought to be immune. 88% of those receiving the 2nd dose are believed to be immune according to the latest science. It's not worth the risk to be unvaccinated. This virus is turning out to be downright evil.

If you had the virus before, I wouldn't count on it preventing me from variants like Delta. I would love nothing more to be wrong. If I am the round is on me. If I haven't been vaccinated, I'd be very leery of this new strain,and wouldn't trust having the original virus as protection.

Delta appears to be more impactful on children - and those under 12 can’t be vaccinated yet. This is an example of why vaccination rates are indeed a matter of “public health”, not simply an individual choice (not saying there should be a mandate - but that there is a relationship).

 

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faceman

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Vaccininated doesn't mean invincible. My wife had her first fully vaccinated patient die last week. Not the end all.....just reduces your chances drastically.
I just got off the phone with my daughter about a unrelated topic. I did ask her later how was work. She told me she is treating a patient who has received both Moderna doses.
 

Arathrael

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Public Health England has just published their latest technical briefing on 'SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England' (https://assets.publishing.service.g...ariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing.pdf).

It's broadly in line with what we've already seen, continuing to show that it's more transmissible, possibly around 60% so(relative to the Alpha variant, which was already more transmissible), vaccines are less effective (especially after just one dose, just a bit less after two), and there continues to appear to be an increased risk of hospitalisation (possibly around double). Up to 96% of sequenced and genotyped cases here are Delta now.

The case fatality rate is still low at this point (0.1%), but as the briefing notes, as Delta is surging now that "includes a high proportion of recent cases who have not completed 28 days of follow up and therefore the 28 day CFR is likely to be an underestimate".

That CFR represents 42 deaths, and of those, 23 were unvaccinated, 7 were more than three weeks past their first dose, and 12 were more than two weeks past their second dose. To put that in perspective, unvaccinated people represent around 22% of the adult population here, but over half of those deaths, whereas the fully vaccinated population is around 50% of the population, but only around 17% of those deaths; also bear in mind, while it doesn't also break that down by age, the unvaccinated population is largely younger, and the fully vaccinated demographic is largely older and relatively more vulnerable here. The data generally continues to show being fully vaccinated offers a high level of protection.

I think what this does clearly show, though, is that it will take a very high level of vaccination alone to prevent Delta spreading, and, given the increased risk of hospitalisation in particular, it's a good idea to use other measures as well where Delta is present and spreading. It looks increasingly unlikely to me that the UK is going to proceed with opening up completely in ten days' time; while there's an argument being pushed that the most vulnerable are now protected, that protection is short of 100%, and with that and the number of unvaccinated people, this looks like it could still overwhelm healthcare if left to run wild, even without considering long-term effects such as long COVID, deaths (which we still need more data on) and the risk of further mutations.
 
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Public Health England has just published their latest technical briefing on 'SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England' (https://assets.publishing.service.g...ariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing.pdf).

It's broadly in line with what we've already seen, continuing to show that it's more transmissible, possibly around 60% so(relative to the Alpha variant, which was already more transmissible), vaccines are less effective (especially after just one dose, just a bit less after two), and there continues to appear to be an increased risk of hospitalisation (possibly around double). Up to 96% of sequenced and genotyped cases here are Delta now.

The case fatality rate is still low at this point (0.1%), but as the briefing notes, as Delta is surging now that "includes a high proportion of recent cases who have not completed 28 days of follow up and therefore the 28 day CFR is likely to be an underestimate".

That CFR represents 42 deaths, and of those, 23 were unvaccinated, 7 were more than three weeks past their first dose, and 12 were more than two weeks past their second dose. To put that in perspective, unvaccinated people represent around 22% of the adult population here, but over half of those deaths, whereas the fully vaccinated population is around 50% of the population, but only around 17% of those deaths; also bear in mind, while it doesn't also break that down by age, the unvaccinated population is largely younger, and the fully vaccinated demographic is largely older and relatively more vulnerable here. The data generally continues to show being fully vaccinated offers a high level of protection.

I think what this does clearly show, though, is that it will take a very high level of vaccination alone to prevent Delta spreading, and, given the increased risk of hospitalisation in particular, it's a good idea to use other measures as well where Delta is present and spreading. It looks increasingly unlikely to me that the UK is going to proceed with opening up completely in ten days' time; while there's an argument being pushed that the most vulnerable are now protected, that protection is short of 100%, and with that and the number of unvaccinated people, this looks like it could still overwhelm healthcare if left to run wild, even without considering long-term effects such as long COVID, deaths (which we still need more data on) and the risk of further mutations.
I've seen some epidemiologist suggest that Delta is 40-60% more transmittable than Alpha. Now whether or not it is more deadly is very debatable...as there aren't any studies to suggest such. I think that much of it is anecdotal evidence, and there's a pretty big media influence. There have been epidemiologists say that it COULD be more deadly...and that's repeated enough until it's just assumed that it is more deadly. At this very moment, it probably is more deadly because a significant percentage of the population are vaccinated and there may not be perfect coverage to Delta. I've seem some suggest that Delta affects kids more than alpha. I think that is also primarily based on anecdotal evidence, as there aren't any studies suggesting that kids have worse outcomes from Delta than Alpha. Kids on the whole continue to do VERY well with COVID with significant illness being incredibly rare.
 

Arathrael

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I've seen some epidemiologist suggest that Delta is 40-60% more transmittable than Alpha. Now whether or not it is more deadly is very debatable...as there aren't any studies to suggest such. I think that much of it is anecdotal evidence, and there's a pretty big media influence. There have been epidemiologists say that it COULD be more deadly...and that's repeated enough until it's just assumed that it is more deadly. At this very moment, it probably is more deadly because a significant percentage of the population are vaccinated and there may not be perfect coverage to Delta. I've seem some suggest that Delta affects kids more than alpha. I think that is also primarily based on anecdotal evidence, as there aren't any studies suggesting that kids have worse outcomes from Delta than Alpha. Kids on the whole continue to do VERY well with COVID with significant illness being incredibly rare.
Yes. Delta being relatively new, we haven't had enough time with robust data collection to determine outcomes in terms of deadliness and effect on kids.

I think people are inferring those from the increased risk of hospitalisation generally, and from the observed relatively higher rates in children, and from anecdotal accounts from India in particular, but none of those necessarily determine that there's a higher risk of death, or serious illness in children.

Conversely, though, we don't have the data to say that there isn't a higher risk of those either. As far as the UK data goes, we should get a better picture over the next couple of weeks.
 
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Yes. Delta being relatively new, we haven't had enough time with robust data collection to determine outcomes in terms of deadliness and effect on kids.

I think people are inferring those from the increased risk of hospitalisation generally, and from the observed relatively higher rates in children, and from anecdotal accounts from India in particular, but none of those necessarily determine that there's a higher risk of death, or serious illness in children.

Conversely, though, we don't have the data to say that there isn't a higher risk of those either. As far as the UK data goes, we should get a better picture over the next couple of weeks.
I agree. I do think that the Delta variant may be more of a problem than a Alpha variant right now. But should you be more afraid now than back when the Alpha variant was new? I don't think so. It's just the current flavor of COVID...it's to be taken seriously, but I think that the media's portray of this variant as a "Super-COVID" is way overblown.

Regarding the Peds population...Alpha had very little affect on the non-immunocompromised kiddos. So if you told me that Delta was more dangerous than Alpha...I'd probably buy it just because the bar was set so incredibly low. The kids that do get sick from COVID typically fall into two buckets, one being the immunocompromised kiddos and the others being healthy kids affected by a condition call MIS-C (or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children) that rarely, but can be a complication of COVID. I think the decision to vaccine in the first group, is pretty easy. If my child was immunocompromised, I'd definitely get them vaccinated. But if they are healthy, it's a little bit more challenging and this is what I've been struggling with. As of right now, we know that MIS-C is incredibly uncommon. The number of kids that we'd have to vaccinate in order to prevent one death from MIS-C is, in my opinion, astronomical. To throw a monkey wrench into the equation is that some studies have showed the vaccine may cause the same inflammatory response as real COVID, and also cause MIS-C in children. So that makes it even less likely that this vaccine will actually help these children. Tie that with ongoing studies of amenorrhea after both getting COVID and the vaccine...I just have concerns about vaccinating children right now. Adults? Absolutely. Kids? I have concerns.

Honestly, I think that there are only three ways that vaccinating children can help humanity: 1) protecting vulnerable immunocompromised children, 2) preventing children from spreading illness to adults who may be vulnerable, and 3) delaying herd immunity which may keep COVID around and force kids into receiving the vaccine and potentially being exposed to the virus in future years. But will it help the significant percentage of kids today? I'd be surprised.
 
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Arathrael

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I agree. I do think that the Delta variant may be more of a problem than a Alpha variant right now. But should you be more afraid now than back when the Alpha variant was new? I don't think so. It's just the current flavor of COVID...it's to be taken seriously, but I think that the media's portray of this variant as a "Super-COVID" is way overblown.
I think it's a bit tricky, since there's a lot of factors. If I was in a largely unvaccinated population in a largely unvaccinated country, I think it'd be fair to portray what we're seeing of Delta as seriously bad news.

But in an increasingly vaccinated country, with vaccination - especially full vaccination - continuing to offer protection, that's less the case. I haven't really seen the media there on this, but the media I've seen here, broadly, has been more, "OK, it's causing a wave, but we don't really need to delay reopening nightclubs do we?" than it has, "Panic, it's Super-COVID!"

Generally, I'd prefer it if we had more of a "This is something to be aware, and appropriately cautious, of" approach than either a, "Panic!" or "Can't we just ignore it and hope it goes away?" approach, but that's the media for you.
 

Goatman Saint

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Delta is a problem. But, for those who are vaccinated the risk is very low of having a serious case if you are basically healthy. And of course the media likes to trip out about every single variation in the virus. Fear and panic sells, and so with each one it’s the end of the world.

To most things I’ve read none of these have a serious enough mutation to make the vaccines anything but extremely effective. For those area with high rates of vaccination, it seemingly being held in check rather well. It’s also showing it’s hand to
Researchers who will be updating vaccines as to which portion is more stable and which mutates more to tailor the vaccine boosters a little better.
But, for those areas with poor vaccination rates I’m thinking this fall is going to be pretty ugly.
 

bclemms

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Delta is a problem. But, for those who are vaccinated the risk is very low of having a serious case if you are basically healthy. And of course the media likes to trip out about every single variation in the virus. Fear and panic sells, and so with each one it’s the end of the world.

To most things I’ve read none of these have a serious enough mutation to make the vaccines anything but extremely effective. For those area with high rates of vaccination, it seemingly being held in check rather well. It’s also showing it’s hand to
Researchers who will be updating vaccines as to which portion is more stable and which mutates more to tailor the vaccine boosters a little better.
But, for those areas with poor vaccination rates I’m thinking this fall is going to be pretty ugly.
I haven't seen anything that says to panic but it wouldn't surprise me. Covid isn't getting the ratings since most are vaccinated so it takes big news to even raise eyebrows. Most people at this stage just don't care unless it impacts the vaccine, myself included.
 

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