COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) 35,147,918 US cases, 625,852 US deaths.] (49 Viewers)

Doug B

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Doug B:
Anyone have the skinny on mask usage in rural Tangipahoa and St. Helena Parishes? Thinking Amite, Monpelier, and points west.

The family has been itching to get out of the house. My wife saw an ad for the Cajun Country Corn Maze online (Facebook, I'm sure). It's about 8 miles west of Montpelier in St. Helena Parish.

So we drive (from the West Bank of Jefferson Parish) an hour and half up there. We finally make it, and we can see from our car the crowd for the maze and other activities. No one in masks. Yes, outdoors, and maybe not as dense as a Mardi Gras parade crowd ... but pretty darn dense.

Not a mask in sight.

So, after driving all that way, we don't even get out of the car. A quick poll of the family reveals that no one feels comfortable going to the corn maze, so we turn around in their parking lot and leave.

We make our way back to I-55 and drive to Hammond, planning to eat at Carreta's not too far from SLU. They have outdoor seating, but a little too dense, and no one really in a mask. People parking and walking to all the other nearby restaurants ... no one in masks. No one in masks. No one in masks.

Welp. Scratch Carreta's. Ended up eating in our car at a Sonic a few blocks north of Hwy 190 in Hammond (close to Target, Best Buy, etc.). Actually stopped at that Best Buy to shop a bit -- hardcore on the mask requirements, everyone in masks, no issues.

So ... what's the deal up there? Everyone's "back to normal" at restaurants in Hammond? The rural parts of Tangipahoa and St. Helena just aren't doing COVID?
Northshore is 1-2 months away from getting spanked hard by the virus

'Better' late than never? :(
 

saintmdterps

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As my high school chemistry and physics teacher would say, "The teachers have the honor, and the kids have the system."
The honor code in our fraternity was "Yes, your honor" "No, your honor" :hihi:
 
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efil4stnias

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ugh
I made the decision today to go back to full mask usage even though I’m fully vaxxed


i think im doin same. !@#!@# these mother!@#!@#. wanna gawk? no problem. wanna comment? again, no problem.

YOU want to play "test my immune system" - be my guest.
 

gboudx

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I am not sure. I'll look into it later.
There's no mask mandate so it's up to parents/students if they want to wear a face covering.


But Arizona is one of several states, including Iowa and Texas, where lawmakers have banned school districts from instituting mask mandates, essentially leaving it up to individual families to decide whether to send their students to school with or without masks.
 
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That tells us that COVID is especially lethal to the elderly, not that 86 year olds are all about to die anyway.

For one thing, it's comparing a median (age of death from COVID) to a mean (life expectancy from birth), and the mean is skewed; most people outlive that life expectancy (i.e. the median age of death is typically a few years higher than the mean).

And for another. the life expectancy of an 86 year old is also naturally higher than the life expectancy from birth. The death probability of an 86 year old in the USA is around 10.9% (men)/8.3% (women), and the life expectancy of an 86 year old in the USA is five and a half years for men, six and a half years for women. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
I appreciate the stats. What is the death probability of an 86 year old who is vaccinated from COVID? From my research (El Pais)...the probability of dying from COVID for an 80+ year old is roughly 12,200 in 100000 (12.2%)...which is higher than any old 80+ year old from dying randomly. I’ve seen another source (WHO- China) with a death rate about 14%. But the death rate for a vaccinated person 80+ years old is estimated to be about 661 in 100,000 (0.6%). It’s a rate that is so low that I think it’s pretty safe to say that it is not significantly different than an 80+ year old dying randomly.

And understand that 0.6% assumes that EVERY 60+ year old gets COVID...which is not the case. If you consider average infection rates (3.8%) the number of deaths from COVID in individuals 80+ who have been vaccinated is roughly 23 in 100,000 (0.023%)...which is lower than the probability of an adolescent dying from COVID while unvaccinated.
 
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SharonT

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I appreciate the stats. What is the death probability of an 86 year old who is vaccinated from COVID? From my research (El Pais)...the probability of dying from COVID for an 80+ year old is roughly 12,200 in 100000 (12.2%)...which is higher than any old 80+ year old from dying randomly. I’ve seen another source (WHO- China) with a death rate about 14%. But the death rate for a vaccinated person 80+ years old is estimated to be about 661 in 100,000 (0.6%). It’s a rate that is so low that I think it’s pretty safe to say that it is not significantly different than an 80+ year old dying randomly.

And understand that 0.6% assumes that EVERY 60+ year old gets COVID...which is not the case. If you consider average infection rates (3.8%) the number of deaths from COVID in individuals 80+ who have been vaccinated is roughly 23 in 100,000 (0.023%)...which is lower than the probability of an adolescent dying from COVID while unvaccinated.
I don't think you can treat those numbers as literal truth, without considering we're dealing with humans subject to variables.

The Bayes Theorem links Doug posted are helpful. Tree charts! :)

*If* someone is exposed, is a whole different scenario than if they are not. This is why we have to consider the prevalence in a particular area, especially since the "thing" the number represents is the product of a virus that requires a human host.
[edited]
 

Mr. Blue Sky

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Dammit.. had a trip planned, leaving tomorrow, to visit my family in the NOLA area.. kept having to push the trip back, but was finally ready to go.. i have a newborn nephew that I haven’t met yet and excited to see him.. but just got a call from my mom that 5 members of my family have tested positive for Covid, including my sister (baby’s mom).. so no trip for me.. of course I’m more worried about them; they dont know if it’s the Delta but guessing it is… my sister and her husband have refused to get vaccinated, and are ’anti-mask’ and anti-being ’told what to do‘.. i just hope that the baby stays healthy. 😕
 
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There's no mask mandate so it's up to parents/students if they want to wear a face covering.

@Saint_Ward Im sorry I never responded to your prior article. I had every intent to do it but the article is really long and quite intimidating to dissect and I’m just too busy right now. Essentially, I’ll respond to this post with my general response to child mask wearing and vaccinations.

The probability of a child dying from COVID is astronomically low. How low? There is a death rate of 0.2% in unconfirmed but suspected cases of COVID in individuals under the age of 19. However, the death rate for individuals under the age of 10 is 0%. That’s not to say that there have not been ANY deaths...but the number is so low that when they record suspected deaths from COVID in that age range...it’s easily rounded to 0%. So the number of children that we are helping with vaccinating under the age of 10 is frankly tiny. And understand that no medical intervention is 100% efficacious and without any potential risks. I suspect that the mortality with or without vaccination for the Peds population (especially that 10 years or younger) is pretty much 0%. So when a scientist tries to convince me that a medical intervention is important for that age group, it makes me wonder exactly why. Are we really trying to help children, or are we trying to help an 86 year old in a nursing home that chose to not get vaccinated?

Understand that medical providers and researchers are bias. It’s not intentional...but it’s there. I’m bias, you’re bias, we are all biased. When a side effect is reported from a medical intervention it is INCREDIBLY difficult to prove causation. When someone dies a day after a vaccine, there is no way to prove that it did or didn’t contribute to that death. And with the inherent bias that a vaccine causing no harm is the null hypothesis in the medical community, you can easily see how correlations between very rare conditions such as MIS-C and myocarditis would never be established. The sample size of those individuals are already astronomically small, even from COVID, that if you didn’t have a reporter on their toes looking out fit the correlation that it would never get made. Perhaps getting COVID is worse than getting the vaccine...but really for a 5 year old...how much more beneficial. My bet is that when you round...it’s 0% more beneficial.

If I had a 16 year old, perhaps my opinion would be different. But I don’t. I have children in the younger cohort. After seeing my wife struggle after the vaccine, the 0+% benefit to our children doesn’t seem to be worth it for my family at this time. But I honestly think that people should make a well informed decision, and one that they feel they can live with.

Regarding masks in children. Again...we are talking about a tiny effect of COVID in this population. How many deaths in the Peds population 10 and under have masks prevented? I’m pretty sure that number is also astronomically small. But a mask is a pretty benign intervention and perhaps it can help protect the teachers...though I do think the effect size is pretty small. I’m fine with masks as the rates go up.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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Dammit.. had a trip planned, leaving tomorrow, to visit my family in the NOLA area.. kept having to push the trip back, but was finally ready to go.. i have a newborn nephew that I haven’t met yet and excited to see him.. but just got a call from my mom that 5 members of my family have tested positive for Covid, including my sister (baby’s mom).. so no trip for me.. of course I’m more worried about them; they dont know if it’s the Delta but guessing it is… my sister and her husband have refused to get vaccinated, and are ’anti-mask’ and anti-being ’told what to do‘.. i just hope that the baby stays healthy. 😕
Just found out from my parents care facility that there have been 3 new covid cases - all 3 were vaccinated
- either they got it from workers (not as likely) or family (more likely)
 

Optimus Prime

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I don't know if this has already been discussed but are the long haul symptoms tied to the severity of covid?

If you're vaccinated, get covid but it's mild or asymptomatic does that mean you're out of the woods for any long term effects?
 

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