COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (13 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

So are we allowed to discuss the 900+ emails released today that were sent to and sent by Dr Fauci? Just wanted to make sure before posting.

Just...no.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Saint_Ward]

So are we allowed to discuss the 900+ emails released today that were sent to and sent by Dr Fauci? Just wanted to make sure before posting.

Depends. If you're going to get political, talk about it at MAP. If not, then there is no reason to shy away from it. I read some of them and didn't see anything alarming or that goes against what was already out there. Other than it shows the shear magnitude of people who wanted his opinion on this. pro sports, airlines, other government agencies, various businesses...

 

[gboudx]

Don't forget there are still people who can't get vaccinated due to age and for various health reasons. Reaching herd immunity faster versus eventually would save so many more lives and help prevent the possibility of creating variants that are resistant to the vaccine. IMO, we're begging for a strain that's more harmful to children.

All of that is understood. And I'm sure the CDC understood it as well when they gave their guidance that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks indoors. We're not doing anything that the CDC hasn't provided guidance for. I'll trust the experts with this. If they change course and say fully vaccinated should start wearing masks again, then that's what we'll do.

 

[livefromDC]

All of that is understood. And I'm sure the CDC understood it as well when they gave their guidance that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks indoors. We're not doing anything that the CDC hasn't provided guidance for. I'll trust the experts with this. If they change course and say fully vaccinated should start wearing masks again, then that's what we'll do.

I'm not sure you understand what I wrote. I didn't write anything that would indicate that fully vaccinated people need to wear masks. My response was to a comment Ward made. It's about people who can't get vaccinated. Not everyone who hasn't gotten vaccinated has not done so because they choose not to do it. Yes, trust the experts [smirks].

 

[Arathrael]

On the Delta variant, it's continuing to look like it is a problem and definitely something to be taken into account. It does have to be stressed this is indicative data based on relatively low numbers.

UK tightens borders and travel rules as variants spark new alarm

PHE data indicates dominant variant ‘more likely to cause serious illness’ as Grant Shapps warns of threat to reopening on 21 June

www.theguardian.com

Data from Public Health England released on Thursday evening showed that the Delta variant, B.1.617.2, first detected in India, is dominant in the UK, now accounting for 75% of infections.​

​

The data also indicated that the variant was significantly more likely to cause serious illness than the Alpha variant of Covid, which has been dominant across the UK since its detection in Kent in the autumn.​

​

While the PHE team stressed that more research was needed, an analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases in England showed that the Delta variant carried 2.61 times the risk of hospitalisation within 14 days compared with the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) once demographic factors and vaccination status were taken into account.​

​

Data from Scotland pointed to a more than twofold higher risk of hospitalisation for those infected with the Delta variant compared with the Alpha.​

​

There's also indications it's spreading through schools:

The new PHE data also revealed for the first time the spread of variants within schools and colleges in England. By the start of June, there had been 140 outbreaks of the Delta variant within educational settings, and since the end of April the figures showed 90 outbreaks of this variant within schools alone.​

​

No new update on vaccine effectiveness in this update (but as a reminder, previous analysis indicated that Pfizer and AstraZeneca are both still effective, albeit with a significant drop in effectiveness after just one shot compared to their effectiveness versus the Alpha variant, and with a much smaller drop after two shots).

The full report from Public Health England is here for those interested: https://assets.publishing.service.g...ants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_14.pdf

 

[gboudx]

I'm not sure you understand what I wrote. I didn't write anything that would indicate that fully vaccinated people need to wear masks. My response was to a comment Ward made. It's about people who can't get vaccinated. Not everyone who hasn't gotten vaccinated has not done so because they choose not to do it. Yes, trust the experts [smirks].

Well you quoted my post in addition to Ward's so I assumed you were directing it at me as well.

 

[Saint_Ward]

^^^ If you two need to further clarify, please take it to PM.

Overall, looking good. Little uptick in northern Missouri, and Florida is having a small up tick.



A weird little check mark going on in a lot of counties... Maybe the Holiday?

 

[Saint_Ward]

July is a pretty good target date for most states to be closer to normal. We're 3-4 weeks away from having 63% of all adults fully vaccinated and 51% of the entire country.



I think getting another 7% of the adult population with at least one shot is very doable.

We can see where the laggards are.



Overall, even the worst states are doing well with their Elderly on the average.

Top, for perspective.

 

[Saint_Ward]

World wide, it's chugging along. I think soon a lot of vaccine from the US will start to peel off to other countries. While India is the biggest risk, it's also a massive undertaking. I'd like to see us focus on N. and S. America first. But, whatever they do will be good, in any case.

 

[superchuck500]

On the Delta variant, it's continuing to look like it is a problem and definitely something to be taken into account. It does have to be stressed this is indicative data based on relatively low numbers.

UK tightens borders and travel rules as variants spark new alarm

PHE data indicates dominant variant ‘more likely to cause serious illness’ as Grant Shapps warns of threat to reopening on 21 June

www.theguardian.com

Data from Public Health England released on Thursday evening showed that the Delta variant, B.1.617.2, first detected in India, is dominant in the UK, now accounting for 75% of infections.​

​

The data also indicated that the variant was significantly more likely to cause serious illness than the Alpha variant of Covid, which has been dominant across the UK since its detection in Kent in the autumn.​

​

While the PHE team stressed that more research was needed, an analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases in England showed that the Delta variant carried 2.61 times the risk of hospitalisation within 14 days compared with the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) once demographic factors and vaccination status were taken into account.​

​

Data from Scotland pointed to a more than twofold higher risk of hospitalisation for those infected with the Delta variant compared with the Alpha.​

​

There's also indications it's spreading through schools:

The new PHE data also revealed for the first time the spread of variants within schools and colleges in England. By the start of June, there had been 140 outbreaks of the Delta variant within educational settings, and since the end of April the figures showed 90 outbreaks of this variant within schools alone.​

​

No new update on vaccine effectiveness in this update (but as a reminder, previous analysis indicated that Pfizer and AstraZeneca are both still effective, albeit with a significant drop in effectiveness after just one shot compared to their effectiveness versus the Alpha variant, and with a much smaller drop after two shots).

The full report from Public Health England is here for those interested: https://assets.publishing.service.g...ants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_14.pdf

Right now, this is the single most important issue in the fight against Covid.

 

[bclemms]

Right now, this is the single most important issue in the fight against Covid.

Yup. To this point the variants have all been overblown. From this point, it just takes one to derail all the progress.

 

[faceman]

Yup. To this point the variants have all been overblown. From this point, it just takes one to derail all the progress.

could this be the one?

UK reports 6,238 daily Covid cases amid fears over Delta variant infectiousness

Prof Neil Ferguson says India variant may be 30-100% more transmissible than the Alpha variant

www.theguardian.com

 

[superchuck500]

could this be the one?

UK reports 6,238 daily Covid cases amid fears over Delta variant infectiousness

Prof Neil Ferguson says India variant may be 30-100% more transmissible than the Alpha variant

www.theguardian.com

So far vaccine efficacy (for those fully vaccinated) remains high on Delta (see Arathreal's post from yesterday for more on that).

That's going to be the key metric on any variant, at least for the United States and other regions with fairly high vaccination rates.


Update: Just saw this new study on vaccine efficacy against Delta. Indeed, the protection is less than with the other strains, up to 50% less, and the older you are, the less effectiv it is. But protection for fully vaccinated is still likely to limit severe cases and death.ee

Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine recipients have lower antibody levels targeting the Delta variant

Levels of antibodies in the blood of vaccinated people that are able to recognise and fight the new SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant first discovered in India (B.1.617.2) are on average lower than those against previously circulating variants in the UK, according to new laboratory data from the Francis...

www.eurekalert.org

 

[bclemms]

could this be the one?

UK reports 6,238 daily Covid cases amid fears over Delta variant infectiousness

Prof Neil Ferguson says India variant may be 30-100% more transmissible than the Alpha variant

www.theguardian.com

Probably not but this is the one that is most concerning so far. It just shows how we are playing a game of chance.

Delta appears more like a Darwin strain if it gets going in the USA but it sure gets close to being the one. Another 25% reduced efficacy against severe disease on Delta and it would be catastrophic. So far all the studies I've seen have been towards total protection vs no protection. I'd really like to see severe disease rates for breakthrough infections to know for sure. If 50% of the breakthroughs are almost all mild disease then it's not that big of a deal. It'll just mean a huge increase in covid deaths for those not vaccinated in the fall. As long as children have the option to get vaccinated by then, I have no problem with that. If breakthrough infections are leading to a high rate of severe disease then it could be a problem child.