COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (15 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

Probably not but this is the one that is most concerning so far. It just shows how we are playing a game of chance.

Delta appears more like a Darwin strain if it gets going in the USA but it sure gets close to being the one. Another 25% reduced efficacy against severe disease on Delta and it would be catastrophic. So far all the studies I've seen have been towards total protection vs no protection. I'd really like to see severe disease rates for breakthrough infections to know for sure. If 50% of the breakthroughs are almost all mild disease then it's not that big of a deal. It'll just mean a huge increase in covid deaths for those not vaccinated in the fall. As long as children have the option to get vaccinated by then, I have no problem with that. If breakthrough infections are leading to a high rate of severe disease then it could be a problem child.

In theory, at this point in the vaccine game, any new variant should have a harder time getting a foothold in here (if not already here for a while), because the major ports of entry have pretty high vaccination rates.

Georgia isn't giving out enough data for the NYT to track it on the county level, but overall, Fulton County has a 1 dose vaccination rate of about 40.6% of the total population, which is a bit behind most major interntional airport counties. (most are around 40-55% fully vaccinated, not just 1 shot), and inline with Dallas County.

So, the hubs in Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas may be a little more concerning, but the NYC airports (JKF in particular), Chicago-O'Hare, LAX, Sea-Tac, should all be well equipped to not allow any variants to get a strong foothold.

 

[bclemms]

In theory, at this point in the vaccine game, any new variant should have a harder time getting a foothold in here (if not already here for a while), because the major ports of entry have pretty high vaccination rates.

Georgia isn't giving out enough data for the NYT to track it on the county level, but overall, Fulton County has a 1 dose vaccination rate of about 40.6% of the total population, which is a bit behind most major interntional airport counties. (most are around 40-55% fully vaccinated, not just 1 shot), and inline with Dallas County.

So, the hubs in Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas may be a little more concerning, but the NYC airports (JKF in particular), Chicago-O'Hare, LAX, Sea-Tac, should all be well equipped to not allow any variants to get a strong foothold.

Exactly, which is why I'm not too concerned with Delta. It's the one that makes the vaccine pretty much useless that is the lingering threat.


Also worth noting, I may have to travel to Thailand, Philipines and Indonesia over a 3 week stretch. The governments were planning to start opening up travel to vaccinated people but apparently there is now some thought that Americans may not be allowed to travel to any of the three countries at all this year without a negative PCR test and quarantine due to the high rate of counterfit vaccination cards being purchased. The ignorant among us continue to really make my life hard.

 

[faceman]

Exactly, which is why I'm not too concerned with Delta. It's the one that makes the vaccine pretty much useless that is the lingering threat.


The ignorant among us continue to really make my life hard.

Ignorant is too kind of a word. It means a person hasn't had the chance to be educated. Stupid means they had a chance to learn and can't do it. Stupid people are the ones making our lives hard

 

[Taurus]

Probably not but this is the one that is most concerning so far. It just shows how we are playing a game of chance.

Delta appears more like a Darwin strain if it gets going in the USA but it sure gets close to being the one. Another 25% reduced efficacy against severe disease on Delta and it would be catastrophic. So far all the studies I've seen have been towards total protection vs no protection. I'd really like to see severe disease rates for breakthrough infections to know for sure. If 50% of the breakthroughs are almost all mild disease then it's not that big of a deal. It'll just mean a huge increase in covid deaths for those not vaccinated in the fall. As long as children have the option to get vaccinated by then, I have no problem with that. If breakthrough infections are leading to a high rate of severe disease then it could be a problem child.

Except for the high percentage of cases with lingering effects/complications. I like smelling things, I like tasting food, remembering stuff, living without migraines, etc.

I don't want Covid at all. Not a fatal case, not a severe case, not mild, not even asymptomitic. Keep this damn thing the hell away from me.

And we had it. It was right there. Swift, complete vaccination and we'd have ended this scourge like we ended much milder diseases like Polio.

But noooo, some orange gasbag had to flap his greasy lips and now 30% of the country is volunteering to be petri dishes for the next iteration of Covid. And the next. And the next until eventually we get one that slips past the vaccine.

If we do get such a strain, I'd charge every antivaxer with depraved indifference and throw 'em all together in prison.

 

[faceman]

Except for the high percentage of cases with lingering effects/complications. I like smelling things, I like tasting food, remembering stuff, living without migraines, etc.

I don't want Covid at all. Not a fatal case, not a severe case, not mild, not even asymptomitic. Keep this damn thing the hell away from me.

And we had it. It was right there. Swift, complete vaccination and we'd have ended this scourge like we ended much milder diseases like Polio.

But noooo, some orange gasbag had to flap his greasy lips and now 30% of the country is volunteering to be petri dishes for the next iteration of Covid. And the next. And the next until eventually we get one that slips past the vaccine.

If we do get such a strain, I'd charge every antivaxer with depraved indifference and throw 'em all together in prison.

I wouldn't call polio a mild disease. It can and did cause paralysis and death. I was the 2nd to last class in first grade to receive the small pox vaccination. We had no choice,and neither did our parents. It was forced vaccination and it worked. Small pox is no longer a threat and has been eradicated.

I know forced vaccines are a touchy subject,but history and effectiveness are on their side. Parents no longer have to worry about their child catching Meales,Mumps,Rubella,Small pox and polio if they have their child vaccinated. What is so hard to understand this fact?

 

[Taurus]

I wouldn't call polio a mild disease. It can and did cause paralysis and death. I was the 2nd to last class in first grade to receive the small pox vaccination. We had no choice,and neither did our parents. It was forced vaccination and it worked. Small pox is no longer a threat and has been eradicated.

I know forced vaccines are a touchy subject,but history and effectiveness are on their side. Parents no longer have to worry about their child catching Meales,Mumps,Rubella,Small pox and polio if they have their child vaccinated. What is so hard to understand this fact?

I call Polio milder because in terms of lethality and consequences per capita, it was. Virtually everyone carried it, but only a small portion ever developed the disease, only a small portion of those had severe symptoms and only a portion of those ended up dead.
If infection numbers for Covid had gotten as saturated as those of Polio, we'd be in a world of hurt.

 

[SharonT]

Good but long article
=================

EARLY ONE MORNING, Linsey Marr tiptoed to her dining room table, slipped on a headset, and fired up Zoom. On her computer screen, dozens of familiar faces began to appear. She also saw a few people she didn’t know, including Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead for Covid-19, and other expert advisers to the WHO. It was just past 1 pm Geneva time on April 3, 2020, but in Blacksburg, Virginia, where Marr lives with her husband and two children, dawn was just beginning to break.

Marr is an aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech and one of the few in the world who also studies infectious diseases. To her, the new coronavirus looked as if it could hang in the air, infecting anyone who breathed in enough of it.

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill

All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.

www.wired.com

I can't thank you enough for this link. I've read it twice now, along with the included links. Highlights below.

She, Li, and two other aerosol scientists had just published an editorial in The BMJ, a top medical journal, entitled “Covid-19 Has Redefined Airborne Transmission.”

From the BMJ article linked above:

In close range situations, people are much more likely to be exposed to the virus by inhaling it than by having it fly through the air in large droplets to land on their eyes, nostrils, or lips. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 after touching surfaces is now considered to be relatively minimal.

and

Covid-19 may well become seasonal, and we will have to live with it as we do with influenza. So governments and health leaders should heed the science and focus their efforts on airborne transmission. Safer indoor environments are required, not only to protect unvaccinated people and those for whom vaccines fail, but also to deter vaccine resistant variants or novel airborne threats that may appear at any time. Improving indoor ventilation and air quality, particularly in healthcare, work, and educational environments, will help all of us to stay safe, now and in the future.

How Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases
Katherine Randall, E. Thomas Ewing, Linsey Marr, Jose Jimenez, L. Bourouiba Posted: 28 Apr 2021​

How Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed major gaps in our understanding of the transmission of viruses through the air. These gaps slowed recognition of airborne tran

papers.ssrn.com

Fresh air. More of it!

 

[Saint_Ward]

Exactly, which is why I'm not too concerned with Delta. It's the one that makes the vaccine pretty much useless that is the lingering threat.


Also worth noting, I may have to travel to Thailand, Philipines and Indonesia over a 3 week stretch. The governments were planning to start opening up travel to vaccinated people but apparently there is now some thought that Americans may not be allowed to travel to any of the three countries at all this year without a negative PCR test and quarantine due to the high rate of counterfit vaccination cards being purchased. The ignorant among us continue to really make my life hard.

That's why I like the fact that my medical insurance was billed for the vials... something more official.

 

[SharonT]

I call Polio milder because in terms of lethality and consequences per capita, it was. Virtually everyone carried it, but only a small portion ever developed the disease, only a small portion of those had severe symptoms and only a portion of those ended up dead.
If infection numbers for Covid had gotten as saturated as those of Polio, we'd be in a world of hurt.

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

 

[Taurus]

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

I think it's the children part that may have caused it to garner so much attention. Or maybe American's just weren't so idiotic and bullheaded in the past. When we saw the opportunity to eradicate a deadly disease, we took it.

Disease factsheet about poliomyelitis

Poliovirus is highly contagious and infected individuals shed virus in the faeces and from oral secretions, thus the mode of transmission is person-to-person, both via the faecal-oral and the oral-oral routes.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Epidemiology​

• In the pre-vaccine era, virtually all children were infected with polio virus early in life.

Clinical features and sequelae​

• Poliovirus infections can lead to a spectrum of clinical presentations ranging from subclinical infection to paralysis and death. Ninety to ninety-five per cent of all poliovirus infections are asymptomatic.
• Paralytic poliomyelitis occurs in less than 1% of all infections. The disease is traditionally classified into spinal, bulbar and bulbospinal types, depending on the site of the affected motor neurons.
• Spinal poliomyelitis starts with symptoms of meningitis followed by severe myalgia and localised sensory (hyperaesthesia, paraesthesia) and motor (spasms, fasciculations) symptoms. After 1–2 days, weakness and paralysis sets in.
• The weakness is classically an asymmetrical, flaccid paralysis that peaks at 48 hours after onset. This is classified as an acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). Proximal muscle groups are affected more than distal groups. Any combination of limbs may be paralysed although lower limbs are predominantly affected.
• Bulbar poliomyelitis is a serious form of the disease resulting from paralysis of the muscles innervated by the cranial nerves, leading to dysphagia, nasal speech, pooling of secretions and dyspnoea. Rarely polio can present as encephalitis, clinically indistinguishable from other causes of viral encephalitis.
• The mortality rate for acute paralytic polio ranges from 5–15%.
• The paralysis can progress for up to one week. Permanent weakness is observed in two-thirds of patients with paralytic poliomyelitis. By 30 days, most of the reversible damage will have disappeared, although some return of function can be expected up until nine months.
• Post-polio syndrome is a poorly understood condition characterised by the onset of fatigue, muscle weakness and wasting in patients who have recovered from paralytic polio, starting several years after the acute disease. It is not an infectious disease and further discussion on this condition is beyond the scope of this factsheet. Current European consensus guidelines on diagnosis and management of post-polio syndrome are available from the European Federation of Neurologic Societies (EFNS).

Infection rate=almost everyone.

Can you imagine the well of feces we'd be in if that were true for Covid?

​

 

[AARPSaint]

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

I posted before that I had a classmate who wore braces on both legs. Very sad.

 

[bclemms]

I think it's the children part that may have caused it to garner so much attention. Or maybe American's just weren't so idiotic and bullheaded in the past. When we saw the opportunity to eradicate a deadly disease, we took it.

Disease factsheet about poliomyelitis

Poliovirus is highly contagious and infected individuals shed virus in the faeces and from oral secretions, thus the mode of transmission is person-to-person, both via the faecal-oral and the oral-oral routes.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Infection rate=almost everyone.

Can you imagine the well of feces we'd be in if that were true for Covid?

​

It would be true if not for social distancing, work from home policies, mask wearing and all the other mitigation efforts. If we had kept packing subways, stadiums and bars everyone would have got it. Despite all that, Covid killed more than Polio did in the entire 20th century.

 

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

I do wonder if Covid was more serious for children if that would have changed anything in masking and distancing

if kids were getting hospitalized and dying would a lot of the craziness have still happened

 

[bclemms]

I do wonder if Covid was more serious for children if that would have changed anything in masking and distancing

if kids were getting hospitalized and dying would a lot of the craziness have still happened

Wouldn't have mattered. I thought it would have but in the end it wouldn't have made a difference.

 

[livefromDC]

I don't know. I remember older relatives talking about friends/classmates wearing braces, etc, like it was commonplace. Just a given that a certain number of people would be randomly struck and their lives altered. It was scary and involved children.

I remember going into the etiology of polio a few years back in a discussion with an antivaxxer disguised as a "we need more researcher".

Found it. The breakdown on polio is in there, But be warned, it is the most tedious conversation ever.

Robert Kennedy, Jr. on Tucker Carlson talking about vaccine safety.

So here is the interview.About half way in he states that there was a recent study that showed a 10 fold increase in mortality for kids vaccinated with the DPT (Diptheria, pertussis and tetanus) versus unvaccinated kids.This is one of the only studies I know of comparing vaccinated versus...

saintsreport.com