COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (7 Viewers)

I have a family member who is a nurse (and not antivax) claiming that over 80% of the positive tests she's getting back are coming from vaccinated people. Seems unlikely, but she's adamant its true.
Might have been discussed because I'm skipping over some posts, but:

- Is she testing obviously sick people in a hospital, or is she doing a lot of testing of apparently healthy people needing tests for work or travel?
- Is she working in an area where full-vaccination rates are high-ish (north of 60% or so)? Like in a major city, as opposed to a rural area?

At a point, Bayes Theorem kicks in, and the numbers start to get decidedly counterintuitive. Skip over the equations in the link -- this theorem is better grasped by most people via text explanation.

 
I'm starting to think breakthroughs are way more common than we're being led to believe.
Another thing to consider is: Are all cases to be treated as equal? Is a case in a vaccinated person in July 2021 the same public issue of concern as a case in an unvaccinated person in July 2020?

Influenza is known to produce large numbers of asymptomatic infections even in low-vaccination populations. So far as I'm aware, most viral infections are the same way.
 
This isn't shocking. Without herd immunity, there is just too much virus being passed around to let the odds stamp it out. When you have a 10% chance of catching it and interact with a lot of unvaccinated people, that 10% becomes more significant.
Bayes Theorem in a nutshell.
 
Sure is looking that way, and the CDC appears to be digging their heels in on their decision to remove the mask mandate for vaccinated people. I hope they will admit their mistake soon, but I'm not counting on it.
I highly doubt that vaccinated people are the problem. I personally don’t think vaccinated people really need to wear masks, because I’m not convinced that they are at any higher risk of dying from COVID than your average person during flu season. Even with delta...the death rate is incredibly low in vaccinated individuals.

If there is a gripe...it is that by allowing vaccinated people to not wear masks it encouraged businesses to loosen their broad mask wearing protocols...so more unvaccinated people got it and a percentage of those died.
 
Another thing to consider is: Are all cases to be treated as equal? Is a case in a vaccinated person in July 2021 the same public issue of concern as a case in an unvaccinated person in July 2020?

Influenza is known to produce large numbers of asymptomatic infections even in low-vaccination populations. So far as I'm aware, most viral infections are the same way.
Likely not. A year ago if I had the sniffles I would get tested. Now? I’m vaccinated...so I’m infinitely less likely.
 
I highly doubt that vaccinated people are the problem. I personally don’t think vaccinated people really need to wear masks, because I’m not convinced that they are at any higher risk of dying from COVID than your average person during flu season. Even with delta...the death rate is incredibly low in vaccinated individuals.

If there is a gripe...it is that by allowing vaccinated people to not wear masks it encouraged businesses to loosen their broad mask wearing protocols...so more unvaccinated people got it and a percentage of those died.

I don't think death is the only problematic result here.
 
I highly doubt that vaccinated people are the problem. I personally don’t think vaccinated people really need to wear masks, because I’m not convinced that they are at any higher risk of dying from COVID than your average person during flu season. Even with delta...the death rate is incredibly low in vaccinated individuals.

If there is a gripe...it is that by allowing vaccinated people to not wear masks it encouraged businesses to loosen their broad mask wearing protocols...so more unvaccinated people got it and a percentage of those died.
No one wanted to get into the process of making people prove they are vaccinated, to be allowed to not wear a mask.

The problem with the honor system we have is that millions of Americans have no honor.
 
I don't think death is the only problematic result here.
Of course, but we do need to realize that 2020 doing everything we could to avoid getting sick is not the long term norm.

We will start to catch colds, and that's OK. But it just isn't as ok as it was in 2018. There will be a transition back.

A covid case for a vaccinated person should be seen as less of a big deal.

With the current environment I'd still get tested and quarantine. Would be dumb to infect a whole business or get fired for not reporting it.

And to add, with Delta surging and the south being a hot spot again, I think I'm going to be going back to wearing a mask at work. I still do at the store. I went to a bar on Sunday. So... that was the only risky thing I've done in a month.
 

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