COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (7 Viewers)

Not exactly understanding what I am looking at here.

The graph at the bottom, Deaths by Date Reported, is clearly going up, which we know is the case, though it would probably be helpful if this was more of a 7-day rolling average view.

Where I am confused though is what is the Deaths by Case Date graph showing us, since it is trending downward when we know numbers of cases and deaths are rising.

Could you explain further?
Yes. If you got sick with Covid yesterday and went to the hospital, your case date is yesterday, and I'd hope you wouldn't die in a day... but you might after a week or two. So, The July 28th deaths, for case date, haven't happened yet.. they'll happen in the future, if at all. that's why that chart always looks like it is getting better.

i.e. first chart is date they died. Second chart is date they got sick, and if they died or not. So, that graph isn't complete. That's what the state officially shows, so the site I posted uses that, and the death's by date they died.

The third thing is death by date reported..which often lumps in weeks of death dates together. So, it's not useful.
 
Yes. If you got sick with Covid yesterday and went to the hospital, you're case date is yesterday, and I'd hope you wouldn't die in a day... but you might after a week or two. So, The July 28th deaths, for case date, haven't happened yet.. they'll happen in the future, if at all.

Right, I totally understand that part about how the lag works, believe me. What I am trying to understand is your contention that the data from that tweet is wrong and that things aren't as bad as they seem when clearly they're trending up now.

If anything, the lag indicator means today's high of 216 will in hindsight look like a fine day in a couple of weeks.

Here is how I view the situation, based on a rolling average and based on the fact we know cases and deaths are rising in Florida right now due to the proverbial lag from a case spike that started several weeks ago, though cases seem to have tapered off a bit thankfully.

ML9CpFa.png


VtcoCC7.png



Let me know if I am not viewing this data properly or have the context wrong.
 
Thanks for your optimism, but i'm beginning to think the same way as Brandon. I have a friend who is a type 1 diabetic I;ve known
since childhood. He's downplaying this virus as the sniffles. If he catches this, it might be lights out. He's not the only one. I'm
tired of debating types like him
I got a couple of friends that are clueless, I just keep warning them and to think of the long game.....there are idiots in every states and in all walks of life.....
 
I was waiting to hear his thoughts on this and am not surprised in the least that he actually thinks blaming the mask makes sense. That's a pretty common cop out for those that won't mask up. "It's the masks that kill you!!!" has been posted so many times on twitter.
But what he is saying isn’t completely wrong. The mask is simply a filter, but if you get the virus on your hands, you can still be transferring them to your face by playing with the mask. So, while he isn’t wrong, I guess using his line of reasoning the viral load was so small because he was wearing his mask he is now asymptotic rather than the potential for full blown Covid.
 
Right, I totally understand that part about how the lag works, believe me. What I am trying to understand is your contention that the data from that tweet is wrong and that things aren't as bad as they seem when clearly they're trending up now.



Here is how I view the situation, based on a rolling average and based on the fact we know cases and deaths are rising in Florida right now due to the proverbial lag, though cases seem to have tapered off a bit thankfully.

ML9CpFa.png


VtcoCC7.png



Let me know if I am not viewing this data properly or have the context wrong.
Ok I understand that one. It looks like cases by day are finally edging down, but this wave of death is maybe only starting the halfway point, and bound to get worse. I think I have it now. Or I’m utterly confused. Either is possible. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 
Right, I totally understand that part about how the lag works, believe me. What I am trying to understand is your contention that the data from that tweet is wrong and that things aren't as bad as they seem when clearly they're trending up now.

If anything, the lag indicator means today's high of 216 will in hindsight look like a fine day in a couple of weeks.



Here is how I view the situation, based on a rolling average and based on the fact we know cases and deaths are rising in Florida right now due to the proverbial lag, though cases seem to have tapered off a bit thankfully.

ML9CpFa.png


VtcoCC7.png



Let me know if I am not viewing this data properly or have the context wrong.

Sorry, moving fast, because I'm also working.

Short version.. I wasn't sure if the 216 deaths is death's that actually happened today, or if it's how many were reported, which could include multiple days.

I agree on your assessment, I said as much, just maybe not as clearly. death's haven't fully hit us yet, cases look like they're going back down... another bad week of deaths, then maybe we're moving in the right direction.
 
Ok I understand that one. It looks like cases by day are finally edging down, but this wave of death is maybe only starting the halfway point, and bound to get worse. I think I have it now. Or I’m utterly confused. Either is possible. 🤷🏼‍♂️

I am not the bible on this, trust me. I do consider myself to be good with numbers and data analysis, however I'd like to hear more perspective to make sure I am analyzing these graphs properly before rushing to judgment
 
Sorry, moving fast, because I'm also working.

Short version.. I wasn't sure if the 216 deaths is death's that actually happened today, or if it's how many were reported, which could include multiple days.

I agree on your assessment, I said as much, just maybe not as clearly. death's haven't fully hit us yet, cases look like they're going back down... another bad week of deaths, then maybe we're moving in the right direction.

No worries, same here.

Hopefully we both end up wrong and a miracle occurs here, because from what I can tell, we could be looking at a catastrophic trend line soon, even if it is a flat trend line.
 
Not based on what I showed. But, case growth has slowed down.

1596043131702.png

1596043149644.png


death's by case date always looks like it is dropping, because people usually don't die on day 1 or 2... so, those will grow. The deaths reported by is still growing. It is about 2 weeks behind the peak in cases.. my guess is we have one more week of higher deaths, and then hope it starts to drop.

I think on your analysis here, we would need cases to actually drop significantly in order to expect the deaths to drop within a week. Remember, the cases have reached a peak, but that peak is high, as were 6 to 8 weeks leading to that peak. We are just now seeing the typical 28 to 42 day death lag take hold from that case trend line forming over the past couple of months, which means we still have a solid month left of seeing the effects of that case trend line reaching its peak. Only then, if the daily case numbers continue to go down, will we begin to see the death lag go down.

Sadly, it is too soon to call the case line going down a "trend" just yet, especially with there being no state mask mandate yet that I am aware of.
 
Man, you can't escape the pandemic even by watching Law and Order reruns. Just finished the one that was about the woman who was a scientific researcher who was found murdered with a vial of SARS (you know which one I'm talking about) in the trunk of her car. They totally freaked out because a couple dozen people ended up getting infected and treated successfully. Imagine if the episode were made recently and the vial in her trunk contained COVID-19.
 
Well, this isn't good news.



The very end is depressing:

It is way too soon to know what the long lasting effects of this virus may or may not be. Simply put, not enough time has passed for us to know anything "long term."

There is still some hope that all of these effects resolve over time. With that said, there is still a very real possibility that these things can be permanent. I guess what I'm trying to say is don't get paranoid over long term effects yet, but don't for a second let your guard down. The best outcome is still not becoming infected.
 
Man, you can't escape the pandemic even by watching Law and Order reruns. Just finished the one that was about the woman who was a scientific researcher who was found murdered with a vial of SARS (you know which one I'm talking about) in the trunk of her car. They totally freaked out because a couple dozen people ended up getting infected and treated successfully. Imagine if the episode were made recently and the vial in her trunk contained COVID-19.


They'd just shrug and say it was no big deal cause it was only a couple dozen deaths?
 
Pretty sure he posted it because it's a Ford technician taking a customer's car to go to the store to get cigarettes without wearing a mask and coughing all over the car the entire time - when not saying "fork" to himself every 30 seconds or so. When he had to go to the drive thru window because he didn't have a mask, the Circle K clerk even said something to him about him driving around in uniform without a mask on (and, of course, he's buying cigarettes) and the guy is all "Aww shucks" about it instead of "I'm spraying possibly infected droplets all over this customer's car possibly infecting them and who knows how many other people."
I believe that he was looking around in the customers car for a mask as well.
 
I believe that he was looking around in the customers car for a mask as well.
I think so too. How messed up is that? On both ends. Why would he want to put on a stranger's mask that could be infected and why would he risk possibly infecting someone else by using their mask? I have to assume this guy gets fired, whoever he may be.
 

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