COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (6 Viewers)

[Brennan77]

Are you ready for some phase 3?

I seriously doubt NOLA moves to phase 3 even if the objective metrics support it.

 

[Infoman]

Louisiana to move to Phase 3 starting Friday

Governor John Bel Edwards says the mask mandate will remain in place.

www.wwltv.com

NEW ORLEANS — Louisiana will move into Phase 3 of the coronavirus recovery beginning Friday, Sept. 11, six months after the first case was reported in the state, Governor Edwards said Thursday.

"This is the hardest decision I've had to make to this point," he said.

Edwards said that moving to Phase 3 does not lift all restrictions. He continues to encourage social distancing, masks and hand washing.
While Edwards has not yet laid out what all of Phase 3 in Louisiana would entail, the White House Phase 3 recovery includes no limits on people returning to work, allows visits to senior facilities, and includes limited distancing at restaurants, movie theaters, stadiums, and churches.

Gov. Edwards has not announced what an alternative might be, but some groups are hopeful there is an opportunity for some loosened restrictions.

Bars have been closed statewide for nearly seven weeks. Restaurants are struggling while operating at a reduced capacity.

Many private businesses are following the state's lead to fill offices, and nursing home residents are desperate for even outdoor visits to resume.

“We are optimistic. I think that a lot of our families have been very vocal with their elected officials,” said Poydras Home CEO Erin Kolb.

“In terms of cases, we're seeing cases stubbornly flat in Louisiana. We're seeing test positivity in Louisiana at 7 percent which is higher than we would like. It's a bit lower in New Orleans proper.”

Despite those lower numbers, Mayor LaToya Cantrell implied the city’s timeline will continue to lag several weeks behind the rest of the state.

She cited thousands of evacuees from Lake Charles in the city, as well as behavior on Labor Day.

 

[xpuma20x]

"The fear that I have is that any time you signal that things have improved to move to the next phase... people will hear what they want to hear instead of what they're being told," he said. "We have to be extremely careful with this."

This is my fear as well. I just have this feeling, like when we moved from 1 to 2, people are going to go crazy like everything is back to normal, which will cause moving to the next phase to be even harder.

 

[St. Widge]

Approve a vaccine without completing clinical trials? What could possibly go wrong?

 

[St. Widge]

This is my fear as well. I just have this feeling, like when we moved from 1 to 2, people are going to go crazy like everything is back to normal, which will cause moving to the next phase to be even harder.

That is likely going to be the psychological reaction of many. Not that it wasn't already going on. I do wonder what the specifics of this version of Phase 3 will be. I wonder if it will just be the old Phase 2 under a new name or if it will be closer to what Phase 3 was supposed to be. It seems pretty clear that all the old metrics and all the old versions of the phases have been thrown out the door and each state and city has been left to decide how to proceed with no guidance from the Feds.

What I really wonder is if bars will be allowed to open? That didn't work out so well last time, but if that isn't allowed, is it really Phase 3? And really for New Orleans in particular, nothing short of opening the bars is going to make much difference to our tourist based economy.

 

[insidejob]

That is likely going to be the psychological reaction of many. Not that it wasn't already going on. I do wonder what the specifics of this version of Phase 3 will be. I wonder if it will just be the old Phase 2 under a new name or if it will be closer to what Phase 3 was supposed to be. It seems pretty clear that all the old metrics and all the old versions of the phases have been thrown out the door and each state and city has been left to decide how to proceed with no guidance from the Feds.

What I really wonder is if bars will be allowed to open? That didn't work out so well last time, but if that isn't allowed, is it really Phase 3? And really for New Orleans in particular, nothing short of opening the bars is going to make much difference to our tourist based economy.

None state-specific but it looks like we're just going off the White House guidelines since this starts tomorrow. I'm skeptical.

The White House Opening America website describes Phase Three guidelines, but states including Louisiana have been using modified restrictions. So, while the recommendations below may provide some insight... they do not tell us what Phase Three will look like in Louisiana.

• VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS can resume public interactions, but should practice physical distancing, minimizing exposure to social settings where distancing may not be practical, unless precautionary measures are observed.
• LOW-RISK POPULATIONS should consider minimizing time spent in crowded environments.
• EMPLOYERS Resume UNRESTRICTED STAFFING of worksites.
• VISITS TO SENIOR CARE FACILITIES AND HOSPITALS can resume. Those who interact with residents and patients must be diligent regarding hygiene.
• LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under limited physical distancing protocols.
• GYMS can remain open if they adhere to standard sanitation protocols.
• BARS may operate with increased standing room occupancy, where applicable.

What's the rush? Kids just went back to school in person in Orleans, right? Why not wait to see if there's a labor day spike? I mean, we've waited this long, can't we wait a little longer to make sure we don't repeat going from one to two?

 

[J.T.]

Approve a vaccine without completing clinical trials? What could possibly go wrong?

They can easily approve a vaccine before the "trials" are over if they have enough data. Pfizer has said they may be going for regulatory approval as early as sometime in October in the United States and in the European Union. If the data supports a request for an approval, they plan to make that request. They are looking at two things in the Phase 3 Trials. Side Effects (which they were also looking for in Phase 1 and 2) and Efficacy. Efficacy means does the vaccine offer some level of protection from the virus. The standard for efficacy set by the FDA for this virus is 50%, I am not sure what the EU has set their number at, the pharmaceutical companies are internally setting their efficacy number at 60%. If they get numbers back that are higher than that, they will likely seek regulatory approval. And clinical trials are often halted if the data that is coming back is very positive. It is ethically wrong to continue to give placebos if the results are positive.

 

[St. Widge]

None state-specific but it looks like we're just going off the White House guidelines since this starts tomorrow. I'm skeptical.



What's the rush? Kids just went back to school in person in Orleans, right? Why not wait to see if there's a labor day spike? I mean, we've waited this long, can't we wait a little longer to make sure we don't repeat going from one to two?

I just don't think most people care anymore. Nobody cares that we were lied to and told that this wasn't a big deal when it was clear that people knew this was a dangerous and highly contagious virus. And few care if more people die now. 180K or 190K dead now. Another 50K or 100K just doesn't matter to many people now. They are just abstract numbers at this point compared to people's real experience of feeling lonely, bored, and losing money.

So we will once again open up a few weeks too early. Let's just hope that the mask mandate staying in place will slow the spread and not make it too out of control.

 

[St. Widge]

They can easily approve a vaccine before the "trials" are over if they have enough data. Pfizer has said they may be going for regulatory approval as early as sometime in October in the United States and in the European Union. If the data supports a request for an approval, they plan to make that request. They are looking at two things in the Phase 3 Trials. Side Effects (which they were also looking for in Phase 1 and 2) and Efficacy. Efficacy means does the vaccine offer some level of protection from the virus. The standard for efficacy set by the FDA for this virus is 50%, I am not sure what the EU has set their number at, the pharmaceutical companies are internally setting their efficacy number at 60%. If they get numbers back that are higher than that, they will likely seek regulatory approval. And clinical trials are often halted if the data that is coming back is very positive. It is ethically wrong to continue to give placebos if the results are positive.

I'm sure that the pharmaceutical companies would love to do away with drug trials for everything they make.

Obviously you can approve a vaccine before trials or over. Hell, you can approve a vaccine without having trials. But there is a reason trials and the approval process is in place.

And to add some context to Moderna's rush to release a drug for the first time ever and to conduct a large scale drug trial for the first time ever:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ts-over-covid-19-vaccine-trials-idUSKBN2481EU

By the way, in that article from July Stephane Becnel, CEO of Moderna, is quoted as saying that they could have data to prove the vaccine's effectiveness by November. Now suddenly they can manufacture it and release it in October?

 

[Brandon13]

180K or 190K dead now. Another 50K or 100K just doesn't matter to many people now. They are just abstract numbers at this point compared to people's real experience of feeling lonely, bored, and losing money.

It's this exactly right here.

My sister's test just came back positive and while my mom hasn't been tested my sister's living at home right now with her and my dad and she's experiencing body aches that are moving around but so far that seems to be the worst of it.

I went by their house a few of days ago so we'll see.

 

[insidejob]

It's this exactly right here.

My sister's test just came back positive and while my mom hasn't been tested my sister's living at home right now with her and my dad and she's experiencing body aches that are moving around but so far that seems to be the worst of it.

I went by their house a few of days ago so we'll see.

Good luck. You got tested?

 

[Brandon13]

Good luck. You got tested?

Have not, literally just found out that hers came back positive like 5 minutes ago. But I suppose that's probably what I'm going to need to do here.

 

[St. Widge]

They can easily approve a vaccine before the "trials" are over if they have enough data. Pfizer has said they may be going for regulatory approval as early as sometime in October in the United States and in the European Union. If the data supports a request for an approval, they plan to make that request. They are looking at two things in the Phase 3 Trials. Side Effects (which they were also looking for in Phase 1 and 2) and Efficacy. Efficacy means does the vaccine offer some level of protection from the virus. The standard for efficacy set by the FDA for this virus is 50%, I am not sure what the EU has set their number at, the pharmaceutical companies are internally setting their efficacy number at 60%. If they get numbers back that are higher than that, they will likely seek regulatory approval. And clinical trials are often halted if the data that is coming back is very positive. It is ethically wrong to continue to give placebos if the results are positive.

Also, here is the result of an FDA case study demonstrating the importance of conducting Phase 3 Trials for new drugs:

https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download

 

[0rion]

America in 1 picture

 

[St. Widge]

It's this exactly right here.

My sister's test just came back positive and while my mom hasn't been tested my sister's living at home right now with her and my dad and she's experiencing body aches that are moving around but so far that seems to be the worst of it.

I went by their house a few of days ago so we'll see.

Good luck. I hope you and the family stay healthy.