COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (18 Viewers)

[buzd]

Well, to be fair, it's much more than that. Airline travel is still down over 70%. Cruise lines are essentially non-existant. Large numbers of businesses have filed for bankruptcy or shuttered. And massive layoffs are starting to happen because the Cares act funding is starting to run out.

So, a good bit of this stems not just from restrictions, but also from people changing their behavior and travel plans. I'm actually surprised the economy hasn't been hit harder. We're not out of the woods yet, not by a long shot imo.

We do need to remain vigilant, yet, at the same time, find a way to go on living in the new normal.

Right. But that's not "being shuttered". That's people making choices, due to (in my opinion) a reasonable perceived risk of certain behaviors, not because of a government shutdown. (And cruise lines have been a cesspool of germs long before this and are basically foreign based and labor-abusive, so good riddance). I agree that there is a failure on the government's part to help manage the economics of the pandemic, but that's a discussion for another place.

 

[Arathrael]

Just let it spread isn't a viable option for me. It's devastating, well beyond just the death rate. The only reason we aren't seeing Spanish Flu-like numbers has been the seriousness this has been approached with by many (certainly not all). I don't know the right answer, but I do believe "just let it happen and don't be scared" is the wrong answer.

Right.

I'm seeing an increasing trend for people to take the data we have - which represents the situation where we do take it at least somewhat seriously - and then argue that we're taking it too seriously because it's not that bad. Which - aside from the inaccuracy of arguing it's not that bad when deaths are in the hundreds of thousands and illnesses are in the millions - is like arguing we don't need so many guards and locks at prisons because the data shows there's hardly any prisoners escaping.

Saying living with the virus is not worse than the restrictions completely misses the point that the impact of the virus is reduced by the restrictions.

That is, there's less to be afraid of because of the restrictions. In the theoretical situation without any restrictions, the impact of the virus increases, causing more sickness and more death, which in itself inherently causes more fear and restrictions naturally follow; hospitals are overwhelmed and have to cancel operations and limit admissions, businesses close due to staff sickness, people limit their own activities because of all the sickness, more businesses close due to a lack of custom, etc.

There isn't a "situation without fear and restrictions". There's a situation where we attempt to manage the restrictions, and thus attempt to manage the virus, and there's a situation where we don't.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

But we are treating this virus like it's the kiss of death, and it just isn't... you literally have near the same life expectancy whether you contract this or you don't....

So, you've said this a number of times, and I've heard other people saying it -- but I don't hear a single doctor or senior politician saying that contracting it is the kiss of death. Can you cite someone please?

Because what I'm hearing medical professionals and politicians saying is that this is a serious and deadly pandemic that we need to take seriously and try to prevent it's spread until we have a vaccine and better therapeutics. And by treating seriously and preventing its spread it means wearing a mask in public spaces and no large indoor gatherings (bars, concerts, sporting events). Everything else can go on as long as people wear a mask and limit large gatherings indoors. We should also have mass testing so we can do targeted lockdowns if necessary.

That's hardly saying, OMG, you're all going to die. It's saying by taking these measures we can prevent excess deaths.

 

[where yat brah]

I know a 38 year old slim, fit woman who had it in July and still has issues with short term memory loss.
People have been saying for a looooooong time this isn't an "all or nothing" disease. Maybe, you have just been listening to the wrong people.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

And there's still the practical matter that even if you lift up all government restrictions, get rid of mask mandates, and so on - the economy is still going to crash unless we get the virus under control.

Because the fact of the matter is a very large percent of this population who spends a lot of money in bars in restaurants and so on, will not be going while we don't have a handle on this. I come into frequent contact with well over 20-30 people in the high risk category every week. If I catch COVID and I'm asymptomatic, then there's a very significant chance that I end up killing at least one of them. And since I'm not a sociopath, I'm doing what I can to prevent me ever even getting the disease. And I'm not alone. Most bars and restaurants and other tourist dependent businesses do not have large margins -- so a 10-20% drop in business will be enough to bankrupt a lot of them.

So, if you want to protect those businesses, advocate for stronger control measures. Advocate for more testing. And advocate for public funding support for those businesses while we wait for vaccines and therapeutics.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Death is not the only thing that matters. There are many other factors than just death.

I've posted this before



We're at 200K+ deaths

If these ratios are accurate that means we have

3,600,000 with permanent heart damage
2,000,000 with permanent lung damage
600,000 with strokes
400,000 with muscle weakness
400,000 with cognitive function

 

[Optimus Prime]

Again, the average age of Covid death is 75... the average age of death in general is 78. (US)

What the hell are we doing here?

What exactly is your point here?

If I knew for a fact that I would die three years from now that doesn't mean I'm okay dying today

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Also, just because I'm a bit of a nerd, but if you are 74, your life expectancy is not 78, your life expectancy is 85 if you're a male and 87 if you're female. That's 11-13 more years of life expected.

It has to do with conditional probability. The average life expectancy for everyone in the US is say 78, but that takes into account all the people who die of cancer at 10, or heart attacks and 52. If you've made it to 74, you've already gotten past all that. Which is why if you are 80, you aren't expected be two years dead, you actually can expect to live 8 more years (up to 88). If you are 88, you can expect to live about 4 more years or so.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I get your point Chuck... I addressed the other factors already....

Some people will be have to be hospitalized, and treated... That is happening anyway. As long as we can handle the volume and don't overwhelm the system... that will be unavoidable until there is a vaccine that is widely deployed.

I don't want to hear about long term effects, until there is literally long term data that supports any conclusion one way or the other.

I am not one of those people that are like - "open everything up".... that's equally crazy....

But we are treating this virus like it's the kiss of death, and it just isn't... you literally have near the same life expectancy whether you contract this or you don't....

I am asking for reasonable decisions here, and stopping the fear campaign on this... because I think it's doing just as much (if not more) damage than the virus is doing at this point.

I cant get on a PC for a while, so I can't get into this like I want to.

I'll say this. It sounds like you are giving a classic wanting your cake and eating it too.

We didnt shutter the economy. Some areas did sorta shut things down, others shut down certain businesses, and/or added safety requirements.

We never shut down air travel, yet we are at 25-30% typical passengers.

So, I'll just pose this question... how do we do what you suggest?

 

[Taurus]

I am asking for reasonable decisions here, and stopping the fear campaign on this... because I think it's doing just as much (if not more) damage than the virus is doing at this point.

IMHO, the 'fear campaign' should continue until compliance improves. You can't fight a contagious disease with half-arse measures. All that does is draw the pain out for as long as possible.

 

[St. Widge]

And also, assuming some sort of bell curve distribution, that means >100,000 are dead who are under 75. And plenty over 50.. And a good bit over 40..

And, at this point, what is there to really complain about? No bars? Concerts? Mask mandates? Social distancing? I understand the economic pain of restaurant and bar owners, for sure, but other than that what is really being restricted at this point?

You with all your math, facts, and context. What part of we should stop being scared do you not understand? I mean, just stop being scared it will fix it all. And I mean, if you can't live your life based on a back windshield sticker that says "No Fear", can I interest you in living your life based on one that says "Salt Life" or "YETI"? Maybe a Hobbs urinating on something?

 

[Infoman]

The point is that the "math and science" say your life expectancy / mortality rate is roughly the same (mid 70's) in the US whether you contract Covid or simply live a normal life. (I know there are a million factors here - as there are with anything in life, but the point stands)

There is no reliable data to say with 100% definiteness that long term effects are a given (or even likely), nor can they be extrapolated... because their is literally no long term data with a novel virus. We have less than 8 months of data on this.

There is literally more data, science, math, and evidence to suggest that this virus has been spread to more than 10x the number of people than have been reported or accounted for... and that the vast majority of positive cases go undocumented, un-tested, and are asymptomatic in nature... meaning x10s more people have no idea that they had it. Also making the mortality rate 10xs lesser... and on average the "known" mortality rate is (+/- 3 years) close to the same as living a completely normal average life in the US.

I'm not sure why we have decided to accept some of the measured and proven math and science, and discount the rest based on what I can only believe is conscious, unreasonable, and selective points of view and plain stubbornness....

 

[St. Widge]

I know a 38 year old slim, fit woman who had it in July and still has issues with short term memory loss.
People have been saying for a looooooong time this isn't an "all or nothing" disease. Maybe, you have just been listening to the wrong people.

I know a mid-40s lawyer who was in great shape who had it a few months ago and lost the hearing in his right ear as a result. The doctor's have no idea if he will ever be able to hear out of that ear again. Not being able to hear is a bit of an issue for a lawyer.

 

[Infoman]

IMHO, the 'fear campaign' should continue until compliance improves. You can't fight a contagious disease with half-arse measures. All that does is draw the pain out for as long as possible.

Riiiiight... because projecting warranted or un-warranted fear or panic on the American public always works out great....

I think it's hilarious that we keep treating the general public like children, and we expect them to act like adults...

 

[Infoman]

Also, just because I'm a bit of a nerd, but if you are 74, your life expectancy is not 78, your life expectancy is 85 if you're a male and 87 if you're female. That's 11-13 more years of life expected.

It has to do with conditional probability. The average life expectancy for everyone in the US is say 78, but that takes into account all the people who die of cancer at 10, or heart attacks and 52. If you've made it to 74, you've already gotten past all that. Which is why if you are 80, you aren't expected be two years dead, you actually can expect to live 8 more years (up to 88). If you are 88, you can expect to live about 4 more years or so.

Do people with Covid also die because they also had say.... a pre-existing condition... say like Cancer, or heart disease? Are those not counted here? Of course they are. All things being equal... the age average is what it is... I acknowledged that there are a million scenarios and details that contribute to the overall average... we can discuss them for a year... the average is the average.