COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [8.288M US cases, 223,644 US deaths.] (12 Viewers)

Dan in Lafayette

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The original COVID-19 Outbreak thread has been closed but is still available as a read-only thread (sticky above). The original thread had become less and less about new information and more about petty bickering. The purpose of this new thread is to link or report new information as it comes out. Try not to go off course from the topic. Those of you who had been banned from the original thread feel free to participate in this new thread. Just stay on topic. Thank you.
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Edit - Andrus:
Bottom line is that moving forward we simply don't want any political bickering going on within this thread, and want to try to limit this thread to being as much about sharing Covid-19 information as possible.

If you want to discuss the political aspects of Covid-19 with other SR members, you can do so here (If you are not already registered there, you will be required to do so)...
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UPDATED TRACKER LINKS:

 
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bonnjer

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China has issued emergency authorization for a vaccine to give to students traveling to the USA. The irony in a Chinese student having to fly to Wuhan to get a vaccine to make it safe for them to fly to the USA is quite thick.
So the Chinese have a vaccine that's safe and ready to go?
 

St. Widge

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No. We aren't at that place. Honestly, I think if people would just wear masks and stay out of big groups we could function fine until there's a vaccine.
I agree. But, as Guido suggested, that could change if we do get that massive second wave that some are predicting. I'm hopeful that if people wear masks and stay out of large groups that it won't be as bad as some fear. But, I should know better than to underestimate the stupidity and selfishness of humans.
 

J.T.

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News from Europe has been grimmer by the day. The last two weeks has been nothing but bad story after bad story.

"Concern is mounting in Europe as countries smash records for daily coronavirus cases and the World Health Organization warns that the daily death toll on the continent could reach five times its April peak within months.

"The fall/winter surge continues to unfold in Europe with exponential increases in daily cases and matching percentage increases in daily deaths," WHO Europe director Hans Kluge told a news briefing Thursday. "

"Projections from reliable epidemiological models are not optimistic," warned Kluge. "These models indicate that prolonged relaxing policies could propel -- by January 2021 -- daily mortality at levels 4 to 5 times higher than what we recorded in April."
He said that simple measures such as social distancing and ensuring more of the population wear masks could save up to 281,000 lives in Europe by February 1. Across the bloc, less than 60% of citizens were systematically wearing masks, while 95% compliance was needed, he added."

Countries that managed to contain infection rates through spring lockdowns and began relaxing measures are watching the virus return with a vengeance, with Germany, France and the Czech Republic all reporting record case numbers in the past two days."

"Europe's tally of new cases in its five most-affected countries -- which together have a similar population to the US -- was nearly 42% greater than the increase in the US in the week to October 13."


People wearing masks in Louisiana is at 81%. At least we are doing better than Europe.....

 

J.T.

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Ask me in a month
I agree. But, as Guido suggested, that could change if we do get that massive second wave that some are predicting. I'm hopeful that if people wear masks and stay out of large groups that it won't be as bad as some fear. But, I should know better than to underestimate the stupidity and selfishness of humans.
More like a third wave in the USA. It is coming. Europe has seen an absolute explosion in cases the last couple of weeks. The trendline in the USA is not as steep, but it is up. It may be slightly blunted by the earliest onset of a level of "herd immunity" in the USA. We are probably approaching 18-20% of the population having been infected now. That could help blunt the increase that is coming.

Let me be clear, I am NOT advocating a move toward "herd immunity" as a goal. Just that, when you have a larger and larger percentage of the population that has been exposed and recovered, the spread of the virus should be blunted to some degree. There is no definitive word that someone who has had the virus and recovered being 100% immune, probably not, but they should have some degree of built in immunity. A lot would depend on how severe a case they had and the level of antibodies that their body was able to develop and the robustness of their overall immune system.
 

WhoDatPhan78

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More like a third wave in the USA. It is coming. Europe has seen an absolute explosion in cases the last couple of weeks. The trendline in the USA is not as steep, but it is up. It may be slightly blunted by the earliest onset of a level of "herd immunity" in the USA. We are probably approaching 18-20% of the population having been infected now. That could help blunt the increase that is coming.

Let me be clear, I am NOT advocating a move toward "herd immunity" as a goal. Just that, when you have a larger and larger percentage of the population that has been exposed and recovered, the spread of the virus should be blunted to some degree. There is no definitive word that someone who has had the virus and recovered being 100% immune, probably not, but they should have some degree of built in immunity. A lot would depend on how severe a case they had and the level of antibodies that their body was able to develop and the robustness of their overall immune system.

I think we're going to start seeing more and more stories about people who catch it twice.

Here is a local example..

 

Arathrael

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Early on, sure, but it's much too late for that now.
Objectively, I wouldn't say that's the case; if anything, the more 'too late' it is (in terms of the spread of the virus within the community), the more a lockdown is the most effective tool to use in rapidly bringing that down, and hence the more essential it is.

The typical counter-argument seems to be the impact of a lockdown on the economy, but that's a little dubious, since the spread of the virus itself is a pretty darn big hit, especially when you get to healthcare systems overloading. Even if you assume you can somehow prevent that with lesser restrictions, it's questionable whether a long-term relatively high-level of viral transmission in the community combined with the necessary restrictions (which are likely to be unstable, being increased at short notice in reaction to events), both of which represent an ongoing impact on the economy, is better even in pure economic terms than a shorter, stricter, lockdown which, if managed effectively (granted, that's a substantial 'if' there given the general mishandling of things to date), reduces the level of restrictions necessary subsequently, since many crucial measures are more effective with lower levels of transmission in the community (e.g. track and trace; you can conceivably comprehensively trace low numbers of cases, that doesn't really scale up into the thousands or tens of thousands). Put it this way, I'd rather be in New Zealand right now.

In terms of timing, while it would certainly be better to take that approach early, it's like the saying about planting a tree, the best time to do it was 20 years ago, the second best time to do it is now.

However, for a lockdown to be truly effective, it needs to be adhered too. If it isn't going to be, then you have a problem. And if the situation has been mishandled to the point where a large proportion of the population won't accept a lockdown, then yes, it might be too late.
 

gboudx

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Maybe stupid question. I know at the beginning there were travel restrictions to certain parts/nations in Europe. Have those restrictions been lifted so that any mutated strain of the virus over there has a good chance to arrive here?
 

St. Widge

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Maybe stupid question. I know at the beginning there were travel restrictions to certain parts/nations in Europe. Have those restrictions been lifted so that any mutated strain of the virus over there has a good chance to arrive here?
I was wondering that too. I seem to recall someone crowing about implementing travel restrictions when this started. But I think those are gone now. Given what is happening in places in Europe, you would think some travel restrictions would be in order for some places. I know that a few months ago a family friend traveled to Denmark for a couple weeks and came back. Although Denmark has had this under control for quite awhile. Not sure how they are doing now.

Of course, I guess with what appears to be happening in parts of the country where winter has hit, it would just be another drop in the bucket to add in some European strains.
 

J.T.

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Maybe stupid question. I know at the beginning there were travel restrictions to certain parts/nations in Europe. Have those restrictions been lifted so that any mutated strain of the virus over there has a good chance to arrive here?
Most of Europe won't let people from the USA into their countries.

Traveling within Europe has a hodgepodge of rules. The article below has lots of info. I know someone from the USA who recently got back from a couple of Balkan Countries that allowed travelers from the USA. I thought the whole idea of that trip was crazy. It was a "vacation" for them! Vacation..... wearing masks, taking multiple Covid tests, etc. I though they were nuts for doing this.

 

Charlie Brizzown

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I was wondering that too. I seem to recall someone crowing about implementing travel restrictions when this started. But I think those are gone now. Given what is happening in places in Europe, you would think some travel restrictions would be in order for some places. I know that a few months ago a family friend traveled to Denmark for a couple weeks and came back. Although Denmark has had this under control for quite awhile. Not sure how they are doing now.

Of course, I guess with what appears to be happening in parts of the country where winter has hit, it would just be another drop in the bucket to add in some European strains.
Here's what i found on the CDC website about travelers prohibited from entering the US. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/from-other-countries.html

Last I heard, I thought there were still restrictions for land crossings to and from Canada and Mexico. It always seemed like the United States restrictions for people entering from those two countries was more a retaliatory thing, or to make it seem like it was more a mutual agreement.

Anecdotal note, a couple weeks ago received an email newsletter update from a travel agency I used in the past for travels to Costa Rica. They gave very specific details on which states from the USA could enter Costa Rica. So if your origin flight was from states they deemed unsafe you could not enter. If your flight origin was from a state they deemed safe, you could enter. If you originated from a safe state and your flight landed in a restricted state before heading to Costa Rica, there were detailed restrictions depending on what kind of stop or layover occurred that would determine whether or not you were allowed to enter their country. I just found it interesting how another country was keeping such close track of how individual states here were handling the outbreak, I'm sure it's because they want the tourist dollars but also manage the risk as best they can.
 

St. Widge

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Here's what i found on the CDC website about travelers prohibited from entering the US. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/from-other-countries.html

Last I heard, I thought there were still restrictions for land crossings to and from Canada and Mexico. It always seemed like the United States restrictions for people entering from those two countries was more a retaliatory thing, or to make it seem like it was more a mutual agreement.

Anecdotal note, a couple weeks ago received an email newsletter update from a travel agency I used in the past for travels to Costa Rica. They gave very specific details on which states from the USA could enter Costa Rica. So if your origin flight was from states they deemed unsafe you could not enter. If your flight origin was from a state they deemed safe, you could enter. If you originated from a safe state and your flight landed in a restricted state before heading to Costa Rica, there were detailed restrictions depending on what kind of stop or layover occurred that would determine whether or not you were allowed to enter their country. I just found it interesting how another country was keeping such close track of how individual states here were handling the outbreak, I'm sure it's because they want the tourist dollars but also manage the risk as best they can.
Interesting. Looks like non-U.S. Citizens can't travel here if they have gone to any of the listed countries in the last 14 days, but they are letting U.S. Citizens and family member return to the U.S. even if they visited one of those countries. I'm not sure how that makes sense.
 

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