COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [8.288M US cases, 223,644 US deaths.] (9 Viewers)

Dan in Lafayette

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The original COVID-19 Outbreak thread has been closed but is still available as a read-only thread (sticky above). The original thread had become less and less about new information and more about petty bickering. The purpose of this new thread is to link or report new information as it comes out. Try not to go off course from the topic. Those of you who had been banned from the original thread feel free to participate in this new thread. Just stay on topic. Thank you.
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Edit - Andrus:
Bottom line is that moving forward we simply don't want any political bickering going on within this thread, and want to try to limit this thread to being as much about sharing Covid-19 information as possible.

If you want to discuss the political aspects of Covid-19 with other SR members, you can do so here (If you are not already registered there, you will be required to do so)...
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UPDATED TRACKER LINKS:

 
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Rickboy

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Colorado’s 7day positivity % went above 5% for the first time since July. The three day average was above 5.5% but it has started to come down. I’ve got my fingers crossed. I’m worried they’ll shutdown the schools again.
 

superchuck500

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Colorado’s 7day positivity % went above 5% for the first time since July. The three day average was above 5.5% but it has started to come down. I’ve got my fingers crossed. I’m worried they’ll shutdown the schools again.
What’s their standard? I haven’t seen any plans that use a pivot point that is under 10%.

I don’t think South Carolina has ever gotten anywhere near 5%.
 

Doug B

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Yeah, just a bunch of nobodies like Dr. Johnny Bananas et. al. C'mon man.
Credentialled or not, those three are still swimming upstream against consensus. I would say that those particular authors of the Barrington Declaration are not scientifically wrong -- it's just that the path forward they advocate is sociologically facile and likely to turn ghoulish.

In the last few weeks, you may have heard mention of a document called the Great Barrington Declaration, which lays out a plan for a return to normal life amidst the pandemic. Written by three prominent physicians and signed by dozens of doctors, scientists, and researchers, the document seems sensible enough: The authors’ strategy, which they call “focused protection,” advocates for protecting the elderly and people with conditions that make them more likely to have a severe case of COVID-19—while allowing the young and healthy to return to business as usual, including concerts, sports events, and other large gatherings. The authors make a social justice case for their idea: “Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19,” they write.

The declaration has been shared widely in liberal circles: The ultra-left magazine Jacobin, for example, endorsed the idea in a Q&A with one of the authors, Martin Kulldorf. “Poor households have borne a disproportionate share of the pandemic’s hardship,” Jacobin’s introduction says. “We need to urgently fight for a more just society.”

Sounds great, right? Just one problem: The vast majority of infectious disease physicians, virologists, and epidemiologists don’t support it—and in fact, most of the scientific community believes that this approach will actively hurt vulnerable people rather than protecting them. “The authors are well known people in public health, but they don’t represent anything like a consensus view about how to approach COVID,” Yale University epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves told me. “The rest of the people in their field are looking at them aghast.” Indeed, the public health community has swarmed to point out the many problems with the Great Barrington plan, and many have also called out Jacobin for promoting it.

Gonsalves, who wrote a critique of the document in The Nation, noted that the document starts with a flawed premise—that we’d only need to isolate a select few elderly and at-risk members of society. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 40 percent of Americans have a condition that puts them at risk for severe COVID-19. “We haven’t even been able to protect people in nursing homes,” says Gonsalves. “Now these people are saying let’s open up and we’ll somehow shield the vulnerable? It’s a recipe for disaster.”
 

Doug B

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From the same link -- the Great Barrington Declaration well was poisoned from the get-go:

The Great Barrington Declaration’s market-first philosophy makes sense when you consider its source: The document was created at a meeting of the American Institution for Economic Research, a libertarian-leaning think tank. The group’s mission statement says it “envisions a world in which societies are organized according to the principles of pure freedom—in which the role of government is sharply confined to the provision of public goods and individuals can flourish within a truly free market and a free society.” Over the last few weeks, the creators of the document have met with White House coronavirus advisor Scott Atlas, Health and Human Services secretary Alex Azar, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, all of whom have vociferously advocated against social distancing measures during the pandemic.
 

bonnjer

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Folks this thing is taking off - conditions are only going to be more favorable for spread unless we take new large-scale mitigation. And I don’t think America has the will to do it.

1602902851184.png


I sure am glad that Florida and Mississippi got this thing licked by lifting those mask mandates, just in the nick of time.
 

superchuck500

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J.T.

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Wow. (7-day new cases in Europe).

1602945397616.png
Europe has been going nuts for the last two weeks. Straight line up. Germany has been the only real outlier. They are doing things "right" or differently, but I doubt they can contain this. They have been getting a great deal of pushback from their local/state (equivalent) governments. The borders are still not closed completely. The Czech Republic thought they had the virus beat a couple of months ago, now they are going through the roof. The only way that Germany beats this is to keep their border nearly closed, which they have done for the most part.

Most of Europe is being ravaged right now. Mask wearing is at a lower rate than in the USA and their positive case rate is higher and going up at a much steeper rate. If you take Germany out of the numbers, it looks even worse.

I'm not sure where this is heading in Europe, but a very severe "shutdown" is likely (actually underway in some areas) and even more severe economic disruptions are on the way. Unfortunately, we are heading in that direction also. Vaccines may be the only hope and they now look to be at least a month or more away, given the newest FDA guidelines. (I wish the vaccine companies would provide at least some insight on how it looks right now, hope might be all we have.) We are in a slight lull before the storm. Europe is feeling it first, they are a couple of weeks or so ahead of us on this curve.
 

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