COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (17 Viewers)

[SoggyBottomBoy]

In February and March, they were saying masks don't work. and they admit that. They claim it was because they didn't want a run on PPE at a time when healthcare workers needed it. By April they were recommending masks. The actual recommendation came from the CDC on April 3rd. That is when they started getting politicized. In fact, in June it was directly stated that people only wear them to make a certain person look bad, and it was that certain person who said it.

So here's the reality, as I see it. The medical community was wrong in February and March, either due to not knowing enough or on purpose to conserve PPE. By mid-March, we knew the virus was airborne and by late March had pretty good science that masks slow but doesn't completely stop it. The CDC makes their recommendation at the beginning of April and the politicization of masks begin.

I can't even really understand why masks were politicized. I understand the issue with restrictions. There was an economic and thus political case there. Masks just make no sense as the political or cultural hill to die on.

That was a huge mistake saying that masks don't work in an effort to try to prevent the general public from cleaning out the supply. They were right in their assumption (see The Great 2020 Toilet Paper Shortage), but it did more damage than good. Their credibility is now questioned because of that and worse, it is now a tool for the adamant, agenda-driven, deniers to latch onto permanently. They should always speak from a current scientific point of view.

 

[Infoman]

They (Faucci, CDC, WHO, USSG) either directly lied the the American people in March / April about masks to avoid a panic... Or they were negligently, arrogantly, and publicly vocally completely ignorant and wrong... During the time frame where we had a chance to stop (or significantly mitigate) this from becoming what it is now.... and that lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people as a direct result. Let's not sugar coat this.

Then you have the Political Parties pointing fingers, and using that exact situation/crisis and confusion to divide us and farm votes...

And now, the same people are saying.... "trust us, or you're killing people".... Or "Don't fear, it's fake"....

I'm not sure how anyone could not see how this gives people pause and trust issues... and ultimately leads to denial, conspiracy theories, and at some point - a complete lack of faith in anything about the situation.

 

[Doug B]

I don't recall all the details of the early days or the information that came out, but my recollection was that the implication was that N95 masks would not be effective for the general public to protect themselves because they didn't know how to properly wear them and would touch the mask resulting in possibly more risk of exposure than they otherwise would have gotten. So, in that context, it would make sense to reserve N95 masks for health care workers who know how to use them and won't increase their own risk by wearing them.

This is generally a correct recall of why many medical professionals spoke out against "masks" for the "general public". Their medical training actually got in the way of understanding what would be useful in a non-medical setting (e.g. necessary PPE for walking through a grocery store vs. necessary PPE for intubating a possible COVID patient).

So, as far as advice from experts went back in February and March, it was a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good (enough). For instance ... they knew through their medical training that homemade cloth masks of unknown fiber, weave, density, etc. WERE NOT good enough to use as PPE in a high-droplet medical setting like intubation. But they erroneously extrapolated that knowledge into bad advice that homemade cloth masks would be of no help while breezing through a grocery, not staying in anyone's "air space" for more than an instant.

 

[J.T.]

Wow, those curves look awful for Europe.

They don't look as bad for the US because we never really went down as much.

The current rate of infection in the UK and France, normed for population, is HIGHER now than it is for the USA. I hope the trend lines break in the UK and Italy soon, those slopes are steep. France is at a higher rate than the USA. These countries are not doing that great either.

 

[Doug B]

They (Faucci, CDC, WHO, USSG) either lied in March / April about masks to avoid a panic... Or they were negligently, arrogantly, and publicly vocal and completely wrong...

It's a little more nuanced than that. Too many experts didn't know what they didn't know about simple cloth masks in low-risk settings (e.g. groceries, retail), and instead erroneously extrapolated what they knew about medical PPE in high-risk medical settings to the general public.

And yes, there was an attempt to avoid a run on N95s and other medical-use PPE. Maybe a little misguided because institutions weren't procuring N95s from Home Depot and Lowe's -- they have private suppliers completely outside the home-use retail market. In the end, it took the experts about a month or so to catch up.

That said, there are a number of medical professionals -- posting on other boards, not sure about here -- that still insists that regular old cloth masks, surgical masks, etc. are not needed by the general public in indoor spaces. They still insist on social distancing, but maintain that keeping distant is enough even without masks. And further, they say if you are dealing with, say, a COVID patient in your household that you need to wear a super-tight fit-tested N95 or else wear nothing -- no in between. I can assume that those medical professionals advising "no masks" for the general public kind of don't believe in aerosol spread.

 

[Infoman]

Sorry, in this day and age, with the medical advancements we have.... I am not buying the "we didn't know" mantra from the "medical experts"....

And if that was even remotely believable to me, and they didn't know... then Having Faucci and the USSG openly and very publicity saying that masks don't work, and for the general public not to wear them, during the early stages of a deadly global pandemic.... is borderline criminal - and negligently, arrogantly, and publicly vocal and completely wrong.

The correct response to the public is then.... We don't know... Take whatever precautions you believe are necessary to safeguard yourself and your family.

And if they did know, and lied... to prevent a panic, or buying run on PPE (which is way more likely, and unfortunately believable)... that's even worse IMO.

 

[Doug B]

Sorry, in this day and age, with the medical advancements we have.... I am not buying the "we didn't know" mantra from the "medical experts"....

And if that was even remotely believable to me, and they didn't know... then Having Faucci and the USSG openly and very publicity saying that masks don't work, and for the general public not to wear them, during the early stages of a deadly global pandemic.... is borderline criminal - and negligently, arrogantly, and publicly vocal and completely wrong.

1) Why would you expect them to know about general mask use outside of the type of medical-setting mask training they received? IMHO, it's obvious that many experts didn't know (for sure) how much homemade cloth masks (and gaiters, etc.) could be relied upon in non-medical settings.

Think about a whiz airplane mechanic. The airplane mechanic could probably be helpful in monkeying around with an automobile engine, but there are things about his airplane-repair training that could get in the way of solving certain car repair issues. For instance, tolerances and part-replacement schedules for a car's engine are a lot more forgiving than they are for a plane -- because if the plane engine croaks, you fall out of the sky. So an airplane mechanic -- if following strict aviation practice -- might advise a car owner to have their engine rebuilt every 5,000 miles as a safety measure. And yeah, it would increase the safety of operating your car -- but that advice, being based on the best practices of airplane engine maintenance, is overkill and a waste of resources for automobile maintenance.

2) Your post kind of throws all masks into a hat together. Did the experts say flatly "masks don't work" meaning any and all possible types of masks? Or did they say something more like "Improperly-worn medical masks won't work for the general public. And homebrew cloth masks won't work like medical masks."? I can agree than in some case (too many), the nuanced message was distilled down and simplified too much, especially if you ever heard an expert speak to the public and suggest that no kind of mask could ever work for public use.

 

[Infoman]

So brain surgery, mammal cloning, generically engineered cells, etc.... Yes.

Basic Knowledge/Understanding of how covering your face (with literally anything) when you are sick can stop/prevent/slow transmission of any Corona Virus (common cold variant).... Nope.

Got it.

Forgive me if I am not ever gonna buy that.

 

[Doug B]

Basic Knowledge/Understanding of how covering your face (with literally anything) when you are sick can stop/prevent/slow transmission of any Corona Virus (common cold variant).... Nope.

I don't feel like I'm explaining this well. Maybe someone else can pick up the thread.

I mean, yeah, if you cornered Dr. Fauci on March 1st and said "I'm going to go to Winn Dixie, and I want to be as safe from COVID as I can. I've got an old T-shirt here. Should I wrap that around my face and go shop, or should I just shop with nothing on my face?" ... Fauci, I would bet, would pick the shirt wrap over no face covering at all.

However, that's not the same as him going on TV and telling America to just cover their face with whatever as they go out and about in public.

Yeah, there was hedging in the March advice from a few angles. There was a "We don't know for sure -- for sure" hedge that you might not buy, but that I'm confident had a role in shaping the early-weeks mask advice. And, yes, regrettably, there was also the ill-conceived "People are going to buy up all the N95s!" hedge.

Something else I've neglected to mention -- there was something of an over-estimation on just how much fomite transmission was taking place. By early April, that gave way to a greater emphasis on how the virus was ejected from a person's respiratory system, both large droplets (coughs, sneezes, shouting, etc.) and aerosols (calm breathing, sighs, etc.). When fomites took a back seat (way back) to droplets and aerosols as the dominant means of COVID transmission, that's when advice around face coverings for the general public really coalesced and almost all experts got on the train.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

So need to lay on the therapy couch here a moment.

One of my very good friends from growing up (we have known each other since elementary school, became good friends in junior high and high school, continued to be good friends for many years, and have stayed in touch after I left New Orleans) was a confirmed bachelor for many years. Well, he's finally getting married and I'm really happy for him. My wife and I have spent time with him and his fiance' (including a weekend they stayed with us the year before last) and we are absolutely looking forward to their wedding.

The wedding is in December and I was hoping they would postpone it. Coincidentally enough (I'm 47, don't have too many wedding invites anymore) another long-time friend was supposed to be getting married this month (October) but she postponed it due to Covid. But my other friend has no intentions of postponing. And now I have received an invite to a guys' weekend (i.e. 'bachelor party') next month and I see on the invite list a lot of good friends that I rarely (if ever) see any more. I don't know how many people will be there, but I suspect it will be more than a handful.

Take away Covid, and I'm there for all of this. We would be brining the family into town for the wedding (my kids would stay with my parents) and we'd be really excited for the event. I'd definitely get a pass from the wife for the guys' weekend and I know it would be a time to spend with some people I truly love and miss. You don't get many opportunities like that as you get older.

But fork this damn Covid situation. We have been being very sensible about it - no, we're not on complete lockdown, but everything we do is based on a Covid risk-assessment. We go out to eat only when we can eat outdoors. I'm still working from home. My kids are in school but there are safeguards and protocols. We are keeping socializing to a minimum (and when we do, it's based on sensible assessment) and we haven't traveled except to a family place in North Carolina that we can drive to and doesn't require a hotel.

There's no way I can justify attending these activities based on how we have been dealing with this. The weekend next month will be in common living quarters (probably a rental house) with a number of people doing whatever they're doing in their lives, many of which probably aren't being cautious (deciding to attend this is certain a sign that they're not especially cautious). And then the wedding will likely be well attended and given that this will be many friends (and parents of friends) that I have known for decades, the temptations for close contact (lots of hugs and handshakes to be sure) will be too great to resist.

As much as I wish that these things would be postponed, that isn't my call. I just don't see how I can expose my wife and kids to something that is substantially beyond any risk that we have been willing to take, based on our mutual views about risk and the mitigation we have done to date. So it looks like I'm going to have to decline and just not be there. And that's such a shame. These kinds of joyous gatherings of longtime, childhood friends (the kind that you typically just don't have in your adult-life circles) are very rare the older you get.

And I have to tell my very good friend that I won't be able to be there at his wedding. That really sucks.

if it's on the Northshore, you probably won't have to worry about it - people are getting VERY lax about masks
as far as i know, none of my students have contracted yet, but several parents have
this while it's still tshirt weather - i wouldn't be surprised if we had a surge in november

 

[Arathrael]

I don't think many people in the UK, France and Italy are making many hoax arguments and really not many people in the USA either.

There's plenty. Ignorance is not stopped by international borders.

Spain, France and the UK have MORE new cases now than they had during their Spring peaks. The USA is still under its Spring peak numbers. Italy is spiking and is nearing its Spring peak again. (The overall rate of new infections, normed for population, is HIGHER in the UK and France, than the USA and is getting close in Spain and Italy.)

The UK does not (yet) actually have more cases than we had during the spring peak; we have more positive tests than we did. Back then, the UK was predominantly only testing hospital admissions. The testing capacity now is an order of magnitude higher (as you can see from the UK dashboard - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/). For example, on the 22 April, during the UK's spring peak, there were 22,763 tests processed, now it's up to 300,000 a day. So the UK, and any other nation that has larger-scale more widely available testing, is inevitably picking up many more cases and picking them up earlier now than it was then.

So hospital admissions are a better indicator in terms of comparing now to then, and from that point of view, we now have the same level of hospital admissions as we did around the 20th March (around 600 a day). That's substantially below the level at the peak (3,000+ daily). But we are very much trending in the wrong direction. It's not going at the same rate as it was then, naturally, since we still have restrictions in place and people working from home, etc., but that's where it's going.

That said, there is data to indicate the recent spike is attributable to the start of the academic year. It appears moving a couple of million adults around the country during a pandemic into predominantly densely populated urban regions with them typically occupying shared housing might have been a bad idea; who knew? So it may be that spike subsides somewhat, but there was an underlying increasing trend before that.

As for comparing the UK and France to the US, even putting testing rates aside for a moment, it's not necessarily a great comparison to make directly as they're at different scales in terms of population and geography, and pandemics don't tend to distribute themselves evenly across nations; the larger the nation, the more significant that factor is likely to be. While a very large nation as a whole may appear to be at fairly level case rates, that could be across the nation, or it could be some regions bringing things under control and case numbers down rapidly while others are going in very much the opposite direction.

The Financial Times has a good tracker -https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/ - that allows you to chart the rates for cases across countries, and additionally across US states. You can see from there that, while the US as a whole appears to have fairly steady (if high; the EU as a whole has been trending in the wrong direction in terms of cases per million since July and has only just caught up with the US (note: you may have to check the 'Per million' option under 'more options' on the FT chart)), there are numerous states with substantially higher case rates than the UK.

 

[Infoman]

I don't feel like I'm explaining this well. Maybe someone else can pick up the thread.

I mean, yeah, if you cornered Dr. Fauci on March 1st and said "I'm going to go to Winn Dixie, and I want to be as safe from COVID as I can. I've got an old T-shirt here. Should I wrap that around my face and go shop, or should I just shop with nothing on my face?" ... Fauci, I would bet, would pick the shirt wrap over no face covering at all.

However, that's not the same as him going on TV and telling America to just cover their face with whatever as they go out and about in public.

Yeah, there was hedging in the March advice from a few angles. There was a "We don't know for sure -- for sure" hedge that you might not buy, but that I'm confident had a role in shaping the early-weeks mask advice. And, yes, regrettably, there was also the ill-conceived "People are going to buy up all the N95s!" hedge.

Something else I've neglected to mention -- there was something of an over-estimation on just how much fomite transmission was taking place. By early April, that gave way to a greater emphasis on how the virus was ejected from a person's respiratory system, both large droplets (coughs, sneezes, shouting, etc.) and aerosols (calm breathing, sighs, etc.). When fomites took a back seat (way back) to droplets and aerosols as the dominant means of COVID transmission, that's when advice around face coverings for the general public really coalesced and almost all experts got on the train.

And maybe I am not explaining it well when I say, that there was no hedging going on in March/April when we could have slowed or stopped this by Faucci or any other office (CDC, WHO, USSG, etc.)....

The message was clear. That message was, "don't wear a mask"... And I posted the video and tweets to prove that in this thread.

Sorry, but this rationalization needs to stop... This was either Lying or severe negligence on a deadly and national level.

And this is what lead us to where we are today - Conflicting Politicization and Distrust.

 

[0rion]

So brain surgery, mammal cloning, generically engineered cells, etc.... Yes.

Basic Knowledge/Understanding of how covering your face (with literally anything) when you are sick can stop/prevent/slow transmission of any Corona Virus (common cold variant).... Nope.

Got it.

Forgive me if I am not ever gonna buy that.

So early on in this there was alot of discussion about it being airborne or not and the concerns was it was only in droplet form. I paid close attention to those back and forths because I have a dog in that fight. Early on it was only droplets and the majority of transmission was due to contaminated surfaces. The reality side of it wasn't being pushed at all. What's the going thoughts on that now? They were flat wrong. I don't know that there was intentional deception as much as just general ignorance and quoting things as fact when they weren't facts.

 

[0rion]

And maybe I am not explaining it well when I say, that there was no hedging going on in March/April when we could have slowed or stopped this by Faucci or any other office (CDC, WHO, USSG, etc.)....

The message was clear. That message was, "don't wear a mask"... And I posted the video and tweets to prove that in this thread.

Sorry, but this rationalization needs to stop... This was either Lying or severe negligence on a deadly and national level.

Something I wouldn't get to caught up in is that we could've stopped or even slowed the spread with masks. We were going to end up right where we are now regardless. It's a combination of our culture and our stupidity which often go hand in hand.

 

[Doug B]

And maybe I am not explaining it well when I say, that there was no hedging going on in March/April when we could have slowed or stopped this by Fauci or any other office (CDC, WHO, USSG, etc.)....

Then it's a simple disagreement. I believe that much public advice early on was compromised for a few reasons, and I do believe that hedging against the unknowns was one of those reasons.

I understand that you don't agree. Your posts have been clear.