COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (11 Viewers)

[No2DC]

Video interview with Fauci and NIH director

 

[texasjefe]

It's essentially herd immunity by default, and even that might not work because some studies are starting to question the effectiveness of immunity.

Even if you knew how long post-positive immunity lasted, herd immunity would take years. It is a phrase, frankly, that is just another meaningless political prop. It's real meaning refers to immunity by vaccine, not by incompetent failure and abdicated surrender.

We need a shutdown in the hotspot states. And when the hospitals are over-run, and there's critical staffing, supply, and testing shortages - at that point we might get the truther leaders to do the right things. In Texas, Governor Abbott was "no-choiced" into a mask order. He will get no-choiced again and again if that's what it takes to flatten the curve again.

And America may well get no-choiced one day into crushing the curve, not just flattening it. For so many countries to have gotten this in control - and America failing - is just not going to be tenable here for much longer.

 

[HobBeh]

Even if you knew how long post-positive immunity lasted, herd immunity would take years. It is a phrase, frankly, that is just another meaningless political prop. It's real meaning refers to immunity by vaccine, not by incompetent failure and abdicated surrender.

We need a shutdown in the hotspot states. And when the hospitals are over-run, and there's critical staffing, supply, and testing shortages - at that point we might get the truther leaders to do the right things. In Texas, Governor Abbott was "no-choiced" into a mask order. He will get no-choiced again and again if that's what it takes to flatten the curve again.

And America may well get no-choiced one day into crushing the curve, not just flattening it. For so many countries to have gotten this in control - and America failing - is just not going to be tenable here for much longer.

It cannot be enforced. People have to live.

 

[Boy_of_wonder75]

I want to home school our kids. My wife doesn't really like the idea but people have been home schooling forever so not sure why I couldn't do it. I just see nothing good coming out of sending our kids to school this fall. It's my son's senior year but he wouldn't care either way. There's some things they'd miss out on such as the social aspect of school and the general expertise an actual teacher offers but what's the risk and what price are we willing to possibly pay for that? It would help if I had faith in them to get it right the first time but nothing has been done right throughout this so I have no reason to believe a school opening will be.

I'm not sure what state options are available for you in Ohio but I have to believe that if Louisiana has a public home school option then Ohio certainly does. The name of the Louisiana public home school is called K-12 and is good. When my daughter had to leave her school for a brief time, we finished out the year with K12 and all involved liked it. There was no cost to us as it was a public school and the state provided the computer and all of the textbooks. Classes were led by certified teachers and were held at specific times, like any other school. I'd look into what's available in Ohio.

 

[Boy_of_wonder75]

It cannot be enforced. People have to live.

Of course it can. The government would have to provide income for the time being for those who wouldn't be able to work, but it could be done. Yes, it would take re-structuring the budget, but it could absolutely be done.

 

[gboudx]

If every NON-essential person stayed home for 3 weeks, then afterward, we opened a phase one with EVERYBODY mandated to wear masks, and social distance, we could be beyond the hardest portion by the early part of August. It's not complicated but we literally have idiots refusing to simply do their parts. I am so frustrated, talking to people inviting me out to social events, and others arguing that this thing is an overblown hoax of some sort. I am fatigued.

I was like you 1-2 weeks ago. I was frustrated and angry with people not taking it seriously enough, being selfish for no reason other than to be obtuse. I was fatigued from worrying about how the virus was spreading and spending too much energy worrying about others not caring like I did. But then I got to a point where I just quit caring. I can only take care of me and my family and make sure we do what we think is the right thing. I can’t control selfish people. I’ve been a lot better mentally and emotionally since then. Some people are just selfish and stupid pricks.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I want to home school our kids. My wife doesn't really like the idea but people have been home schooling forever so not sure why I couldn't do it. I just see nothing good coming out of sending our kids to school this fall. It's my son's senior year but he wouldn't care either way. There's some things they'd miss out on such as the social aspect of school and the general expertise an actual teacher offers but what's the risk and what price are we willing to possibly pay for that? It would help if I had faith in them to get it right the first time but nothing has been done right throughout this so I have no reason to believe a school opening will be.

just a note on face to face
obviously, it’s easier for the teacher to walk around and have one on one and make sure students get the lesson, et al
but I would argue that the hidden loss in distance learning is the peer to peer dynamic - having discussions across the class with students making breakthroughs or checking other students who wander away from the topic. That’s the kind of stuff that really helps students connect to material

 

[HobBeh]

Of course it can. The government would have to provide income for the time being for those who wouldn't be able to work, but it could be done. Yes, it would take re-structuring the budget, but it could absolutely be done.

That was not my point.

 

[DaveXA]

That was not my point.

I'm assuming your point is that you think it's unenforceable. But, I would argue that it can be if done right. Other countries are doing it with a reasonable degree of success. But it's going to take buy in from the vast majority of the population for it to work well. That's hard to pull off when 50 states are all doing something a little different. We need a more coordinated effort across all states to beat this thing. But that would mean wading into politics, so not going there.

And I agree people have to live, but sometimes we have to make sacrifices to live. If it takes all of us quarantining for 3-6 weeks, then pass a stimulus package to support those who won't be able to work from home, and the only people who should be out are emergency services and infrastructure support. Everyone else quarantines and in a month we'd begin to phase back in and we'll be a little worse for the wear, but with this in the rear view mirror. Worth doing imo.

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

The two graphs below show daily new cases and daily new deaths. It may have been in the original thread but what is the explanation for the discrepancy between the rapid rise in new cases and the death rate remaining fairly flat?



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Tapxe]

I was like you 1-2 weeks ago. I was frustrated and angry with people not taking it seriously enough, being selfish for no reason other than to be obtuse. I was fatigued from worrying about how the virus was spreading and spending too much energy worrying about others not caring like I did. But then I got to a point where I just quit caring. I can only take care of me and my family and make sure we do what we think is the right thing. I can’t control selfish people. I’ve been a lot better mentally and emotionally since then. Some people are just selfish and stupid pricks.

The obvious issue is that if your work forces you to go in, you cannot avoid those idiots. My case is exactly that. I work because I have to. Other than that, I'm home. I plan my shopping on days I work to minimize trips etc, but still in exposed because a group of coworkers listen to m media that says it's just the flu and masks are communist.

So I'm exposed thru no fault of my own.

 

[nolaspe]

As deep as we're in now, I'm not sure there's any stopping it now. It's essentially herd immunity by default, and even that might not work because some studies are starting to question the effectiveness of immunity.

Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

edition.cnn.com

 

[bonnjer]

3 weeks isn't long enough imo. An absolute minimum of 30 days, and probably closer to 45. That's just over 6 weeks. But, it'll never happen. Meh.

Yep, we blew our shot at all that early on in March and April. The genie is out of the bottle and he isn't going back in.

 

[HobBeh]

I'm assuming your point is that you think it's unenforceable. But, I would argue that it can be if done right. Other countries are doing it with a reasonable degree of success. But it's going to take buy in from the vast majority of the population for it to work well. That's hard to pull off when 50 states are all doing something a little different. We need a more coordinated effort across all states to beat this thing. But that would mean wading into politics, so not going there.

Sorry. I have complex thoughts on the virus and enforcement. I don't want to create mod problems.

 

[St. Widge]

The two graphs below show daily new cases and daily new deaths. It may have been in the original thread but what is the explanation for the discrepancy between the rapid rise in new cases and the death rate remaining fairly flat?



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I think it's two fold. First, it is likely that COVD deaths are being under reported. We know there is somehow an unexplained alarming rise in pneumonia deaths in many places. It seems likely that many of those are COVID related, but not being reported as such. Second, the rise in cases that started recently is concentrated in a younger demographic that is less likely to die. The problem is that it will spread to older people at some point. Especially when schools open. And, as the infection spreads, hospitals will get overwhelmed leading to worse treatment and death.

It's also likely that some of it is just that doctors are much better at treating COVID than they were. But, that is likely to change when the hospitals get swamped.