COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (13 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

Sorry. I have complex thoughts on the virus and enforcement. I don't want to create mod problems.

There is a politics site if you want to discuss those complex thoughts.

 

[St. Widge]

Yep, we blew our shot at all that early on in March and April. The genie is out of the bottle and he isn't going back in.

And I think we were so close to containing it. All we needed was a few more weeks of stay at home and then slower progress in the opening with masks required and it would be at a level that we could have some semblance of a normal life by now. But we blew that opportunity and I doubt we have the fortitude or maybe the money to get to that point again.

 

[DaveXA]

I think it's two fold. First, it is likely that COVD deaths are being under reported. We know there is somehow an alarming rise in pneumonia death in many places. It seems likely that many of those are COVID related, but not being reported as such. Second, the rise in cases that started recently is concentrated in a younger demographic that is less likely to die. The problem is that it will spread to older people at some point. Especially when schools open. And, as the infection spreads, hospitals will get overwhelmed leading to worse treatment and death.

I tend to think more elderly have gotten to a point where they realize the lethality of the virus in their age group, and i also think the mistakes in the nursing homes accounted for a large number of deaths in the highest time frame. I'm sure states are more aware of the nursing home issue and that probably counts for a lot.

I do think the sheer number of testing is also having some effect. But Iwondering with hospitals starting to reach near capacity if that will start pushing the fatality rates back up.

 

[bclemms]

The two graphs below show daily new cases and daily new deaths. It may have been in the original thread but what is the explanation for the discrepancy between the rapid rise in new cases and the death rate remaining fairly flat?



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Ton of factors at play.
1) Average age of the people getting Covid is 15 years younger than what we saw in NYC.
2) There is a lag between cases and deaths and it will start going up and likely in a 1-2 day period we'll see a big spike and it'll be off to the races.
3) Therapeutics are better. Between Rendesivir helping people get out of hospitals faster and steroid treatments that reduce death by about 20% it is helping.
4) The deaths start really getting out of control when healthcare systems get overwhelmed.
5) The vulnerable are being better protected and we are better supplied with PPE.
6) More testing means we aren't only testing the symptomatic people.

I still think the virus spread among the young people the first time when everything started but we just didn't have testing anywhere the outbreaks occurred in time to see it. This would explain why NYC, Milan, Lisban, Wuhan, QOM, NOLA and other places didn't have any problems then all of the sudden things went haywire so fast. As we're seeing in Arizona, Texas, Florida, etc that the outbreaks don't just fire up overnight. It likely finds it's way into the young people, spreads like crazy without really being detected then suddenly there is so much virus everywhere the spread to the older generations is just inevitable and it gets out of control then healthcare systems get overwhelmed and tons of people start dying.

I still think Vitamin D could play a significant part in the seriousness of cases but we likely wont know for a long time. If death rates start to increase in the winter it'll likely be the first clue.

I really think we're going to start seeing the deaths increase pretty quickly this week. We're seeing hospitaliations start to rapidly rise now.

 

[bonnjer]

And I think we were so close to containing it. All we needed was a few more weeks of stay at home and then slower progress in the opening with masks required and it would be at a level that we could have some semblance of a normal life by now. But we blew that opportunity and I doubt we have the fortitude or maybe the money to get to that point again.

People just won't have it. I think that even if we go back to phase 1 or lockdown, people are just going to disregard it.

 

[Goatman Saint]

The two graphs below show daily new cases and daily new deaths. It may have been in the original thread but what is the explanation for the discrepancy between the rapid rise in new cases and the death rate remaining fairly flat?



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From what I’ve read, there are differing things they are looking at. The first chunk was winter where people vitamin D levels are lower and the average age was much higher as it got into old folks homes and such and spread like wildfire. Older people, sicker people got caught off guard and got hit harder. Now it’s younger healthier people which would seem to be able to handle the seesaws much better.

The second thought is doctors are getting better at managing it. There is a dirt cheap, super common steroid that I forgot the name of which is surprisingly effective at limiting the inflammation driven cytokine storm. While not perfect, it’s working pretty well. Also, doctors were quicker to use ventilators which caused a whole other series of issues, now there are some better intermediate steps that are proving effective in some.

Lastly, hospitalizations trail 10 days behind and deaths 2 weeks behind it. What’s scary right now is we are getting closer to that lack of available care/decisions made to ration. That’s when things get scary, and when death rates start to shoot up.

 

[St. Widge]

I really think we're going to start seeing the deaths increase pretty quickly this week. We're seeing hospitaliations start to rapidly rise now.

True. We are seeing all kinds of reports about hospitals getting to full ICU capacity in places like Arizona, Florida, and Texas. You would expect that will result in more deaths within the next week or so unfortunately.

 

[St. Widge]

People just won't have it. I think that even if we go back to phase 1 or lockdown, people are just going to disregard it.

You are probably right. Or at least enough people will ignore it that it won't make a difference.

 

[Goatman Saint]

I was watching an interview with someone in the middle of the night. He said essentially that the New York area up through that metro area to Boston knows someone who either died or was seriously sick with this. It’s no joke to them and they are on the ball with things because it is personal. The rest of the country doesn’t have this feeling at a personal level. Politics, whatever aside. It’s an imaginary thing that if you are in a state where there were very few cases and then it opened up people could have that lackadaisical attitude towards prevention. Now those states are getting hit hard, and people are getting that taste of personal now where it could be them. Once that happens people fall into line unless they are being obtuse just to be obtuse. So I’m expecting Texas, Arizona and such will go along with what’s needed as it’s becoming personal now.

 

[someone]

I had one of these installed at home due to a mold issue a couple of weeks ago.

REME HALO® Whole Home In-Duct Air Purifier - RGF

REME HALO® Whole Home In-Duct Air Purifier

www.rgf.com

After reading more about it, I installed one in each of the units at our dental office. If it does what it says it does, it's imperative that every hospital be required to install them in every unit.

Dual ionizers to reduce airborne particulates (dust, dander, pollen, mold spores)
• Kills up to 99% of bacteria, mold and viruses
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• New zinc ions kill 99% of viruses on surfaces
• Unlike portable units that are limited to the room in which they are placed, the REME HALO® provides whole home and building purification

 

[Saint_Ward]

Coronavirus Is Airborne: 239 Experts Call on the WHO to Update Its COVID-19 Guidelines

A group of experts has come together with a common claim: the coronavirus is airborne. The scientists are to publish an open letter to the World Health Organization, suggesting it to update its recommendations for preventing the transmission of COVID-19.

www.sciencetimes.com

I'm skeptical. You'd see one case in an office infecting everyone, not just people near by.

 

[bclemms]

I'm skeptical. You'd see one case in an office infecting everyone, not just people near by.

Kind of like we were seeing with cruise ships and business conferences before everyone started social distancing and wearing masks?

I'm just assuming it's airborne and have for some time, if I'm wrong I'm still safe.

 

[DaveXA]

Kind of like we were seeing with cruise ships and business conferences before everyone started social distancing and wearing masks?

I'm just assuming it's airborne and have for some time, if I'm wrong I'm still safe.

Not to mention churches, bars and restaurants. I think anywhere indoors for extended periods of time are outbreaks waiting to happen.

 

[faceman]

If we were really committed to beating this thing, we would and should have bit the bullet and did a hard one month shutdown and we'd be having a much different discussion now. Frustrating.


[/QUOTE]

I said this on the other thread. We really never went into a true shutdown. My wife is from Taiwan. Fast food workers and Retail workers from Home Depot and Lowes are not considered essential there.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Not to mention churches, bars and restaurants. I think anywhere indoors for extended periods of time are outbreaks waiting to happen.

Which is why on Thursday last week Newsom banned indoor bars, restaurants, card tables, movie theaters and such in the worst 19 counties. If they can find a way to move things outside, great, have at it. But indoor is being shut down. He also issued a want to ban singing in churches due to the risks associated with it.