COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (37 Viewers)

[Kenna Kid]

as Dago has speculated on page 841 text messages from a nurse about numbers being off on covid 19 patients in my mind numbers are worse than being reported i believe. I believe if a person has underlying problems but die of the virus they will list the death cause as the underlying problem to skew the numbers . Iknow a person that works for the coroner office in new orleans on a shift just recently the parish list 4 deaths on that person shift , say a shift is 8 to 10 hours when in fact it was 12. case in point was a story yesterday morning that i wrote about a 23 year old that died

 

[St. Geezy]

[Mod edit - possibly unreliable per replies below - sbb]

 

[showtimesaints]

Thanks! That is causation though. Annual temps really have zero impact, as you can see on that map there are a hundred other places that fit those same temps that aren't circled. It's a certain seasonal temp range which is likely due to UV exposure that has the bigger impact. All of the stuff we put together shows the virus tends to spread faster in areas that have long periods with temperatures between 40-60 degrees without huge temperature swings. Places like New Orleans are in ideal range from the end of November to mid March. I actually think peak infection rate in New Orleans is over with and now we are just seeing the fallout and think we will actually peak in the next couple weeks while the spread begins to slow.

Cities farther north with coastal influences that moderate temperatures during the winter and summer months are the ones we think are the hardest to combat. Places like Seattle and Vancouver that experience long periods in this weather norm with high percentage of cloud cover are really tough. NYC had an adnormally warm winter putting them in this risk area for a long period this year. Combine NYC with travel routes and population density it is why it became our #1 City in the US with cities like Milan, Paris, London and Madrid for huge outbreaks. The one city on our "top 10" list that his been able to really hold ground is Seoul, South Korea. Other cities that have done surprisingly well are Dublin (and Ireland as a whole), Glaskow and Lisbon to a degree. Ireland and Scotland shut things down really fast and hard. Seoul has a young population and was very aggressive with early testing, contact tracing and isolation. Lisbon was slower to react and has more cases but so far has been able to hold off a catastrophic outbreak.

Unfortunately there are a lot of cities that are just now starting to get into peak virus spread. Cities like Boston, Detroit, Twin Cities, Chicago, Milwaukee, Buffalo, Erie and Cleveland are places to watch in the USA in the coming weeks/months. In Eurpoe there are a lot of places that fit the bill for long duration peak temps and minimal UV exposure that could run into early summer and then after a brief relief period jump right back into those zones with an early fall season. All of those cities and places will be the canary in the coal mine for the 2nd wave.

What we don't understand is why the virus tends to spread slower in winter of colder areas that have even less UV exposure. Places like Berlin and Moscow or MSP and Detroit in the USA. Our guess was people tend to go out less, have a lot less skin exposure with so many people in those location wearing gloves and layers of clothes. Which also makes us think that more tranmission from surfaces happen than most people think. Plus those tend not to have the huge international hubs due to frequent poor weather days which may have reduced seeding. It could be the virus just doesn't do as well in freezing temps but we think that is unlikely. Ontario and toronto have been the most outlier of the cold weather places but they avoided early big outbreaks while temps were still cold. Toronto is going to be a city we think has a lot of problems moving forward.

Thanks for your reply, better understanding this now. I'm from Toronto so not looking to good for us. Our cases are moving slower than most but it worries me that our trajectory is on the same path yet we only have a population of 37+ million people, so that is very scary.

 

[Poison]

I'm working for one of Australia's largest employers and it is becoming clear that we'll be heading down the same path as New Zealand in a few days (from governmental sources to our CEO). This is a complete lock-down except for critical essential services (grocery stores, pharmacies, doctors, etc.) for four weeks. My wife and son are in the middle of this now. Australian authorities are delaying it to try and lessen the panic and further strain on the food supply chain. We are currently stretched to the limit to try and supply the two largest grocery chains, Woolworths and Coles. If there is another run on the stores, the supply chain will break. Distribution centres are empty, store shelves are empty and suppliers cannot keep up with demand. Things are about to get much more serious for people here. I am just thankful that I'm working as part of the food supply chain, so my job and those of my staff are safe...and that we live and work in rural, low population areas.

This is very interesting insight, thanks KiwiSaint. Hopefully the hoarders are done. I am on day six of self-isolation because I returned from the US last Saturday (no symptoms, for what it's worth). I am fortunate my parents and my housemate can buy stuff for me, but it can be time-consuming and I feel like I am putting people out. Hopefully there is something left once I get out -- if anything is still open by then.

 

[bclemms]

Thanks for your reply, better understanding this now. I'm from Toronto so not looking to good for us. Our cases are moving slower than most but it worries me that our trajectory is on the same path yet we only have a population of 37+ million people, so that is very scary.

My pleasure. I think Canada is going to look back on this and realize they should have shut down international travel MUCH sooner than they did. Personal opinion, they tried so hard to look progressive it will come at the expense of either the economy, lives or both. They haven't handled this as poorly as the USA but they sure shot themselves in the foot by not closing down travel early. At least they tested early and appear to be doing most everything else right.

 

[KiwiSaint]

This is very interesting insight, thanks KiwiSaint. Hopefully the hoarders are done. I am on day six of self-isolation because I returned from the US last Saturday (no symptoms, for what it's worth). I am fortunate my parents and my housemate can buy stuff for me, but it can be time-consuming and I feel like I am putting people out. Hopefully there is something left once I get out -- if anything is still open by then.

When all this is over, we’ll have to get together for a Saints game. I’m back and forth between Melbourne and Bendigo quite regularly.

 

[Get in the Carr]

Fake news. They are setting up tents for people with mild symptoms to go to. It was in a video from a nurse on the ground yesterday.

Please stop with twitter posts unless from someone respected. They are typically unreliable and doom and gloom.

 

[St. Geezy]

No way huh?!

Anthony Fauci: Coronavirus shutdown in Louisiana likely needed to come 'a bit sooner'

Louisiana and the rapid growth of coronavirus cases across the state was a focus of Chris Cuomo's Prime Time show on CNN when he invited guest Dr. Anthony Fauci on

www.nola.com

 

[St. Geezy]

Fake news. They are setting up tents for people with mild symptoms to go to. It was in a video from a nurse on the ground yesterday.

Please stop with twitter posts unless from someone respected. They are typically unreliable and doom and gloom.

They've been reliable with posting news as it comes. I can't say I follow the feed religiously enough to know if it posts fake stuff or not, so I apologize if this isn't true info.

 

[bclemms]

No way huh?!

Anthony Fauci: Coronavirus shutdown in Louisiana likely needed to come 'a bit sooner'

Louisiana and the rapid growth of coronavirus cases across the state was a focus of Chris Cuomo's Prime Time show on CNN when he invited guest Dr. Anthony Fauci on

www.nola.com

So Mardi Gras was a bad idea? Who'd a thunk that?

No way was Mardi Gras getting shut down in NOLA but it should have. Someone gets runover by a float and they overreact but the virus they just ignored.

 

[Goatman Saint]

What we don't understand is why the virus tends to spread slower in winter of colder areas that have even less UV exposure. Places like Berlin and Moscow or MSP and Detroit in the USA. Our guess was people tend to go out less, have a lot less skin exposure with so many people in those location wearing gloves and layers of clothes. Which also makes us think that more transmission from surfaces happen than most people think. Plus those tend not to have the huge international hubs due to frequent poor weather days which may have reduced seeding. It could be the virus just doesn't do as well in freezing temps but we think that is unlikely. Ontario and toronto have been the most outlier of the cold weather places but they avoided early big outbreaks while temps were still cold. Toronto is going to be a city we think has a lot of problems moving forward.

Having grown up in an area like that (Great Falls MT) the cold makes a difference in a couple of ways. But first, the upper Midwest isn’t big on getting close to people anyway. The cultural personal space is greater to begin with, and the movement in those areas gets restricted in winter. Right now it’s called social distancing and shelter at home, when I was a kid it was called to damn cold and slick to go outside. Also, anything over a persons face helps and scarf use is much more common up there at this time of the year. Between scarfs, hoods and face masks, some form of facial protection is quite common. I know my mom hasn’t left the house in three weeks. It’s very common to buy a months worth of groceries and not leave all that much simply because it’s easier than running around. Once spring starts and people start moving we will see.

 

[bclemms]

They've been reliable with posting news as it comes. I can't say I follow the feed religiously enough to know if it posts fake stuff or not, so I apologize if this isn't true info.

They've been more good than not but they do get over the top and rush to get out news that isn't propertly vetted at times. This appears to be one of those times.

They aren't going to set up tents for bodies. If it gets to that they'll bring in refridgerated trucks.

 

[James Spader]

They've been more good than not but they do get over the top and rush to get out news that isn't propertly vetted at times. This appears to be one of those times.

They aren't going to set up tents for bodies. If it gets to that they'll bring in refridgerated trucks.

How long does the virus last in a dead body?

 

[not2rich]

I want to rant so bad haha. There have been procedures in place for dealing with infectious diseases....what's happening now is the CDC changes those procedures, at the cost of worker safety, to accommodate the lack of PPE.

That's exactly what's going on. When health care workers complain about the lack of PPE, they're told "but that's the CDC guidelines - go see your patients."

 

[Goatman Saint]

In less horrible news, Italy is continuing on the getting better part of the curve with its 5th straight day of less new infections, and the death trend has been declining since Saturday’s massive 750 or so number.