COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (26 Viewers)

[AARPSaint]

This is very interesting insight, thanks KiwiSaint. Hopefully the hoarders are done. I am on day six of self-isolation because I returned from the US last Saturday (no symptoms, for what it's worth). I am fortunate my parents and my housemate can buy stuff for me, but it can be time-consuming and I feel like I am putting people out. Hopefully there is something left once I get out -- if anything is still open by then.

Don't feel bad about having people shop for you. I was in the local Amish Market trying to keep my distance but watching couples taking up space needlessly. Yes, it's much more pleasant to shop with your spouse, but these are abnormal times. The fewer people there are, the less the potential for spread.

 

[DaveXA]

WIth perfect hindsight we would have issued every person on the globe their own personal isolation chamber with a 14 day supply of food. But we dont have perfect hindsight we are operating in real time.

If you look back at this thread (which has been way, way, way ahead of the curve in terms of raising the alarm) there was no discussion of canceling Mardi Gras in mid February. It was about China and Italy and some of the cruise ships. CDC was saying "keep an eye on it."

In retrospect I wish lots of things had been done differently but not canceling Mardi Gras was a perfectly reasonable decision at the time.

FWIW, there was some talk of canceling Mardi Gras just before it got underway. But, no one really knew how widespread and where the sick people were because we had done almost no testing at that point. The lack of early testing has contributed greatly to the spread and exponential growth in cases we're seeing now.

 

[LuvNOLA]

Coming from my friend who works in a hospital on why they aren’t testing.
First, if you say you test you have hundreds of people who show up for testing with no symptoms. It’s allergy season, yes you have a sore throat, your eyes water just like every other year. Go home

next they only have a limited number of tests, which they are using to confirm people who are critical and need admission. If you have a mild case, stay home and don’t infect others

also, what is that test going to tell you? That you’re sick, guess what you already know that. There’s no treatment, no medicine, so self isolate and try not to die, or infect others.
Also, if one member of your household has it, chances are incredibly high that everyone else in your family does too. So go home.

Yeah right........so you would tell your loved one, “you don’t need oxygen or a ventilator, so go home and try not to die.”

 

[superchuck500]

Highest one day numbers from any country.

US will pass Italy later today.

 

[Get in the Carr]

That is pretty callous.......”you are old & feeble, not lug this heavy tank around, and get out of here, and be your own health care provider.”

??????!!!!!!

I’m pretty sure he is talking about the people in the lower risk age group going to the hospital when they get a cough. That seems to be the case based on the stats we are seeing that less than twenty percent of cases need a ventilator or other breathing assistance.

 

[RazorOye]

My pleasure. I think Canada is going to look back on this and realize they should have shut down international travel MUCH sooner than they did. Personal opinion, they tried so hard to look progressive it will come at the expense of either the economy, lives or both. They haven't handled this as poorly as the USA but they sure shot themselves in the foot by not closing down travel early. At least they tested early and appear to be doing most everything else right.

This is one of my primary criticisms. I don't think it was for the same reasons, honestly. People that I've talked to who work at ports of entry (including a high level security admin at Toronto's Pearson airport) explained things differently - many of the initial references led to commerce, Canadians abroad (which is still the case), and US border relations, and other factors.

Still, the net impact is the same. One professor I work with who is from Greece and sympathetic toward Toronto's diverse, global community was very critical of not closing borders earlier - because he was hearing so much from his family and relatives in Europe. He was calling for strident measures weeks earlier than they were implemented.

I would add one other - there were indications of community spread earlier. The stance of the government had been, to this point, there are certain measures that had to be satisfied before it was confirmed and they didn't want to confirm without certainty. But there was a case more than a week before they started calling for social distancing measures that should have received priority testing queue placement because it was suspected community spread. Turns out, it was. Now, another line of defense was that there were a lot of surveillance tests that were administered - to monitor for community spread - that came back negative. All of them.

But still, if there's a possible one confirmed out there - that's all it takes.

I will say that the reaction of the people has been positive. And aside from provincial and federal policy, that's really important. The governments play a role, no doubt. But the biggest impact comes from people adhering to the measures and there is more adherence here than there is back home, based on the news I am following and reports from people back home.

In the end, I think that makes a huge difference.

I also want the US border to stay closed down - I don't want cases crossing the border from the States. Nobody else here does, either.

Finally, fwiw, I noted what a Toronto hospital doctor said about the stats of hospitals in the city - quiet for now. Two weeks ago, she said that their board was nothing but suspected COVID patients and a lot of them were negative. Fewer people are coming in and they are seeing fewer people in the hospital, even though the cases are rising - a lot of people are and have been isolating from home. But they know things are going to change and could at any moment. The next few days are frightening.

 

[superchuck500]

I’m pretty sure he is talking about the people in the lower risk age group going to the hospital when they get a cough. That seems to be the case based on the stats we are seeing that less than twenty percent of cases need a ventilator or other breathing assistance.

In an infectious disease context, 20 percent is a massive number. We're seeing 20% and higher in many localities, but that's as a function of confirmed cases (and there are many unconfirmed cases out there) - but also we know anecdotally that there are patients requiring ventilators for moderate to severe pneumonia that have not yet been confirmed as Covid cases (but almost certainly are) - so you have to consider those as well.

The real incidence is probably between 5% on the low end and 15% on the high end (with higher incidence in the older demographics). But those are still massive numbers if overall volume is significant.

In comparison, H1N1 was hospitalizing at a rate of .45% (less than half a percent) and flu is about half of that (.25%).

 

[kat5s]

LOL..

 

[Get in the Carr]

In an infectious disease context, 20 percent is a massive number. We're seeing 20% and higher in many localities, but that's as a function of confirmed cases (and there are many unconfirmed cases out there) - but also we know anecdotally that there are patients requiring ventilators for moderate to severe pneumonia that have not yet been confirmed as Covid cases (but almost certainly are) - so you have to consider those as well.

The real incidence is probably between 5% on the low end and 15% on the high end (with higher incidence in the older demographics). But those are still massive numbers if overall volume is significant.

In comparison, H1N1 was hospitalizing at a rate of .45% (less than half a percent) and flu is about half of that (.25%).

I get it’s still serious and a large number especially given our shortage. I am saying that it appears that those long lines in NYC should not be happening based on the protocol we are being told to follow when we have symptoms. Do you think a good majority of the people flooding the hospitals have had high fever and/or trouble breathing?

 

[kat5s]

Sous vide your N95 in a ziploc bag

 

[bonnjer]

In less horrible news, Italy is continuing on the getting better part of the curve with its 5th straight day of less new infections, and the death trend has been declining since Saturday’s massive 750 or so number.

And how far are we behind them? Two weeks?

 

[Optimus Prime]

An awful lot of you have seen the 2011 movie Contagion. I know this because when a certain now-deleted twitter thread about the new coronavirus’s R0 went (sorry) viral, people kept asking me if I’d seen the scene in the movie where Kate Winslet’s character explains the term to a roomful of skeptical government officials.


The movie’s popularity has spiked since 2019-nCoV started hitting the headlines. And it gets a lot of things right, in terms of epidemiology—but it also dramatizes everything a bit much. Here’s a quick rundown of what’s realistic and what’s not. ....

What the Movie 'Contagion' Can and Can't Teach Us About Epidemics

An awful lot of you have seen the 2011 movie Contagion . I know this because when a certain now-deleted twitter thread about the new coronavirus’s R

vitals.lifehacker.com

 

[bonnjer]

New Orleans emerges as next coronavirus epicenter, threatening rest of South

I guess the question is did they lockdown NOLA in time and well enough for the rest of the state / region? I'm assuming probably not.

 

[faceman]

And how far are we behind them? Two weeks?

From what I've been reading, the answer is yes. It's still too early to make predictions though.

 

[faceman]

I guess the question is did they lockdown NOLA in time and well enough for the rest of the state / region? I'm assuming probably not.

No, I might be wrong,but I believe Mardi gras was the reason it's now expanded to the Ms. coast.