COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (39 Viewers)

[0rion]

Without a doubt. They probably would have been right there with the numbnut who forced physical vote in the House today.

Thankfully, he won't have any friends left in Congress after today.

Not sure if my view of it lines up with anyone elses but here goes......my wife is an essential worker and has to go into a hospital every day and risk her and our family's safety in order to care for people. Congress is an essential job to care for people....you can bet your bottom dollar I'm 100% all for them going to work. Let them share some risk.

 

[Eeyore]

The company for which I work stopped meetings of 10 or more people last week.

Next Thursday the meetings begin anew. I am scheduled to be in a 24x36 room with 30-40 people.

I asked why we're doing this so soon. The response was a smirk and "it'll be gone by April."

 

[NewOrleansFan]

Not sure if my view of it lines up with anyone elses but here goes......my wife is an essential worker and has to go into a hospital every day and risk her and our family's safety in order to care for people. Congress is an essential job to care for people....you can bet your bottom dollar I'm 100% all for them going to work. Let them share some risk.

Not me. My wife and I are also essential workers but I just want this to be over as early as possible. So that means don’t take risks if you don’t have to.

 

[Infoman]

Question: did you start at the beginning of the thread?

Yes, it's there from front to back... wasn't pointing you out, if that's what you think... I didn't read anything you posted that was hindsight (unless I missed it).... but this is a pretty big thread... and it's packed with hindsightful posts... beginning to end from what I have read.... none of it is helpful, constructive, or informative.

 

[DoubleSaint]

I feel like I'm explaining this badly. The evidence indicates that you cannot allow most of your population to catch it over 18 months.

Look it at this way. Say the UK population is 66 million. And let us say, we're thinking 60% of the population might need to catch it over 18 months. That's 39,600,000 people

The first question is how many of them will need hospital care. Currently, across the EU/EEA countries with available data, 30% of diagnosed cases are hospitalised - but of course, a higher rate of hospitalised cases will be diagnosed than non-hospitalised. So let's say it's 10%. That's 3,960,000 people people.

But then the next question is, how many of them will need critical care. And that's probably around 15% (although I think rates in the UK are currently higher, but let's go with 15%). That's 594,000 people.

We can't put nearly four million people through hospital in 18 months, let alone with 594,000 of them going through critical care.

The UK only has about 4,000 critical care beds. And only about 20-25% of those free. But if we assume they have 1,000 free, and they somehow quadruple that, to have 4,000 beds just for covid-19, all somehow equipped and staffed... if each patient has to be in there for fourteen days (and evidence indicates most need more than two weeks)... it'd take over five and a half years to put them all through. And even then we'd need to precisely control the rate of transmission to ensure we didn't go over the rate of 4,000 every 14 days, which would be a neat trick.

So we'd need the hospitalisation rate to be a lot lower - and we don't know that it is - and/or we'd need vastly more critical care than we currently have - which is hard, since it requires equipment and staffing - and we'd have to be willing to let hundreds of thousands of people go through critical care, which isn't great. Plus, there's all the death.

Which is why I think we're containing as much as possible until better treatment and/or a vaccine is available.

At this moment just over 1% of active cases in the UK are in critical care. (Worldwide it’s 5% but different testing levels make it harder to use that percentage for the UK)
1% of the 4 million is 40,000. Over 18 months that’s just over 2,000 per month
NHS nightingale will have the capacity to deal with that on its own.

The guardian reported yesterday that London alone will have 7,500 critical care bed capacity in the next few weeks. It had 275 in January.

I don’t think they’re planning on waiting 18 months for the herd to have immunity.

 

[DaveXA]

The company for which I work stopped meetings of 10 or more people last week.

Next Thursday the meetings begin anew. I am scheduled to be in a 24x36 room with 30-40 people.

I asked why we're doing this so soon. The response was a smirk and "it'll be gone by April."

Seriously? I'm speechless. I got nothing.

 

[B4YOU]

While I understand the apprehension a lot of people have and don't blame them for not doing takeout, I'll just briefly state my POV.

First, during a time when my wife and I plus 4 teenagers are cooped up in our apartment, I like having a reason to get out of the house every now and then. Takeout gives me a reason to do so.

Second, I have two kids working at two different restaurants. Both have told me they have increased the frequency of cleanings and they wash hands, use gloves and pay more attention to the small stuff. So don't feel so much at risk.

A lot of credit cards are touchless these days and it's rare for the employees to actually touch the cards. The only icky thing is handling cash. Obviously, they change gloves and/or wash hands in that case.

Last, I try to patronize some of the smaller establishments if I see they're practicing good safety measures. I'd like to be a part in helping them survive this.

Respectfully -
Yes, foodborne illness chances are probably at an all time low with reduced staff, heightened hygiene, and less orders. I’m not worried about that. Financial hardship puts people in a tight spot. Everyday sick people go to work because they need a check. Few people are in as tight a spot as food service workers. If unionized, salaried workers show up with uncontrollable coughing, then maybe it’s reasonable to skip the takeout to protect my health and the health of the workers at that place. I’m still churches and youth groups gathering that will continue the spread. Cities/regions will need Italy-like shutdowns for a downslope to show up.

Our region is not moving in the right direction. Look at DC and adjacent counties positive cases today - about 170 new cases and 1k total. The data is easy to miss because it’s over 3 states. I would guess a true regional lockdown is coming in the next 14 days. I expect late May before the curve flattens here and anyone on telework to be prepared for 4 months of not seeing their office. This is all based on public info.

 

[kat5s]

i wish we had a thread that only listed information like this, graphs, and important information. even better if the important stats are updated on the pinned / first post.

I agree 100%...posted this yesterday..

"Because this thread moves to fast to keep pertinent info in a concise place...

I would like to ask moderators if maybe we could have a thread to post news articles, tweets, and other useful links only with no commenting...Users could copy link from the interwebs and come back here to comment...But personally think it would be nice to have an uncluttered thread with just info.. "

 

[kat5s]

Good interview from General Semonite with ACE

 

[superchuck500]

Yes, it's there from front to back... wasn't pointing you out, if that's what you think... I didn't read anything you posted that was hindsight (unless I missed it).... but this is a pretty big thread... and it's packed with hindsightful posts... beginning to end from what I have read.... none of it is helpful, constructive, or informative.

I just meant generally (not me specifically), but from January to early March, there’s a lot of content - and a lot of it was “this is coming” and some of it was the “we need to be doing things” and some of it was “why aren’t we doing things?” How is that hindsight?

My point isn’t to argue with you specifically - my point is that it was fairly obvious to anyone paying attention that this was coming, especially without controls on importing it or containing it. And expecting it to come without containment means you have to plan on the impact on local healthcare systems - hospitals in outbreak zones are likely to be unable to handle the demand (based on observed rates of hospitalization). The primary needs shown in China and Italy were PPE, hospital beds, and ventilation.

And I don’t think any of us that were posting on this thread (during that period) are epidemiologists, public health experts, or even doctors. But even to our lay understanding, these were the facets of this epidemic. They were obvious - and the actual professionals and leaders involved should have a far deeper knowledge than us yahoos.

Being critical of the late, weak, and poorly managed US response isn’t hindsight.

 

[DaveXA]

Respectfully -
Yes, foodborne illness chances are probably at an all time low with reduced staff, heightened hygiene, and less orders. I’m not worried about that. Financial hardship puts people in a tight spot. Everyday sick people go to work because they need a check. Few people are in as tight a spot as food service workers. If unionized, salaried workers show up with uncontrollable coughing, then maybe it’s reasonable to skip the takeout to protect my health and the health of the workers at that place. I’m still churches and youth groups gathering that will continue the spread. Cities/regions will need Italy-like shutdowns for a downslope to show up.

Our region is not moving in the right direction. Look at DC and adjacent counties positive cases today - about 170 new cases and 1k total. The data is easy to miss because it’s over 3 states. I would guess a true regional lockdown is coming in the next 14 days. I expect late May before the curve flattens here and anyone on telework to be prepared for 4 months of not seeing their office. This is all based on public info.

Yeah, honestly not hearing enough news about COVID19 in the DMV. A old HS friend of my daughter just found out he was positive for it yesterday in Springfield, VA. Thankfully they haven't been in contact in a while. It got my attention.

As for my kids and staffing at the restaurants, they're actually working less hours. My daughter's location cut their closing hours from 9 pm to 7 pm and she's actually working fewer hours now. The staffing issues is a mixed bag. Some places cutting hours because they've lost so much business. Others have staffing shortages because of them not wanting to work with the virus out there.

My big issue is that Virginia has no stay at home order in place and stores are still allowing the normal traffic in and out. I have tried shopping at off peak hours when fewer people are in the store. It's easier to keep distance at those times. There still are too many people out and about.

I still think that relatively speaking, the risks are fairly low here, but I fully expect that to change soon. I'd rather the whole country quarantine themselves for 2 weeks, but I don't see that ever happening.

 

[superchuck500]

Lol

 

[DaveXA]

Lol

DeSantis just needs to get real and do a Bugs Bunny separation with the union and stop travel into the state entirely. Might as well at this point.

 

[itztime]

This is going to be worse than we thought.

"A Georgia mother was found to be infected with the coronavirus after she had died, NBC News reported.

Diedre Wilkes' was a mammogram technician at Piedmont Newnan Hospital. She died in her home last week and a posthumous coronavirus test came back positive, The Atlanta Journal-Constitutionreported.

Wilkes was 42 years old. She appears to have died 12 to 16 hours before her body was found in her home. Her four-year-old child was near her body when police found her.

An autopsy is being conducted but the mother did not have any known underlying health conditions."

Coronavirus: A Georgia healthcare worker was found dead in her home

Healthcare workers in the US are contracting the novel coronavirus and few have already died from COVID-19.

www.google.com

Read that story this morning but like a lot of these stories, some of them are being sensationalized. Maybe the media can pump the breaks before reporting and get a clearer picture before enducing anxiety and panic?

• 17 Year Old NOLA teen dies of Corona originally reported
  • Dad of New Orleans teen who died after contracting coronavirus says heart failure may be culprit

Dad of New Orleans teen who died after contracting coronavirus says heart failure may be culprit

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards on Thursday said a 17-year-old New Orleans boy who had tested positive for the novel coronavirus and died is proof “that everyone is at risk”

www.nola.com

• 39 Year Old NOLA woman originally reported to have died from Corona
  • New Orleans woman found dead tests negative for coronavirus, but doctor ‘skeptical’

New Orleans woman found dead tests negative for coronavirus, but doctor ‘skeptical’

Natasha Ott, 39, was determined to be negative for the virus following the discovery of her body Friday on her kitchen floor, but a lab is conducting a retest of the result.

nypost.com

 

[Crzycjunx76]

Lol

Other than Florida he means?