COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (16 Viewers)

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bclemms said:
I don't know, there have been 4 deaths outside China and only about 500 cases, with dozens in critical condition. My math pretty much eliminates the lower end.

Like I have said a few times. I really don't think it's that deadly until it overwhelms healthcare systems. The flu doesn't stick 20% of people in the hospital on ventilation. There are only so many ventilators and beds available. We like to think the US is so much better than a place like China but I'm not sure our capacity for something like this is all that higher.
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It really isn’t any better. I’ve seen where they have set up tents and such in parking lots and such to treat the swine flu when it went around. Nope when it hits it’s not going to be pretty

now what the western developed nations have is better sanitation, better health, and less smoking, along with less pollution which already sets up a better situation. It’s going to be harder to get it to spread here.
The only other thing is that the western world is buying time. Throwing different antivirals at it to see what works. Learning how to treat it, and seeing what works and what doesn’t and the signs of who can be ok with no treatment and who will need to be treated, things like that. Hopefully these guys working on a vaccine get one out a whole heck of a lot sooner than the 18 months they are saying.
As far as the death rate, who knows. There isn’t enough of a data base yet as China isn’t being forthcoming with information. We don’t really know the death rate, don’t know how many have died, don’t know how many caught a sniffle and got better. Lots and lots we don’t know here.
 
Goatman Saint said:
It really isn’t any better. I’ve seen where they have set up tents and such in parking lots and such to treat the swine flu when it went around. Nope when it hits it’s not going to be pretty

now what the western developed nations have is better sanitation, better health, and less smoking, along with less pollution which already sets up a better situation. It’s going to be harder to get it to spread here.
The only other thing is that the western world is buying time. Throwing different antivirals at it to see what works. Learning how to treat it, and seeing what works and what doesn’t and the signs of who can be ok with no treatment and who will need to be treated, things like that. Hopefully these guys working on a vaccine get one out a whole heck of a lot sooner than the 18 months they are saying.
As far as the death rate, who knows. There isn’t enough of a data base yet as China isn’t being forthcoming with information. We don’t really know the death rate, don’t know how many have died, don’t know how many caught a sniffle and got better. Lots and lots we don’t know here.
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We have these animals that are carriers that stay in close quarters in bunches for long periods, these animals are really disgusting little creatures. Before and after these little animals are bunched up together we transport them around on buses and distribute them to homes all across America every day in an effort to train them. As long as this is going on then it's going to run the risk of spreading really quickly and I don't expect the US to shut down schools for obvious reasons.
 
superchuck500 said:
Yes, she had it for two weeks - we don't know exactly what she was doing but that's one of the real problems with this virus. It has a long asymptomatic period (upwards of two weeks).

What's not clear yet is whether the virus spreads during that period. Often viruses don't spread while latent/asymptomatic. If this one does, it's going to be a real problem - at least as far as the contagiousness question goes.
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It's been over 3 weeks since this post about the 60 year old woman in Chicago, shouldn't we have lots of cases popping up where she was?

It's fairly interesting to go back in this thread and see how much speculation was going on. I especially liked the snake theories.
 
bclemms said:
We have these animals that are carriers that stay in close quarters in bunches for long periods, these animals are really disgusting little creatures. Before and after these little animals are bunched up together we transport them around on buses and distribute them to homes all across America every day in an effort to train them. As long as this is going on then it's going to run the risk of spreading really quickly and I don't expect the US to shut down schools for obvious reasons.
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Oh I know. I teach. I usually have 32 kids in my class. Last week I had 17 buy the end of the days because the flu is going around so bad here. Once this gets into the school system all bets are off, although Who knows. There was talk during the swine flu of doing it although it never happened.
 
IntenseSaint said:
It's been over 3 weeks since this post about the 60 year old woman in Chicago, shouldn't we have lots of cases popping up where she was?

It's fairly interesting to go back in this thread and see how much speculation was going on. I especially liked the snake theories.
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The snake theory was real - a virologist posted the analysis on virological.org (where many of the first sequencing were posted). Some media latched on to it and it became a story. But fairly quickly after that, other virologists noted there was a likely mistake in the snake analysis - and that if done property it suggested bats as the reservoir (which is far more sensible given SARS and MERS). I think it was genuine in its intention, it just wasn't careful, quality work.

As for the woman in Chicago, we don't know what her activities were. Was she a suspect case asked to isolate? Also, we know that the virus doesn't shed in the same rate for everyone. A single person might be easy to contain - if the person isn't a super-spreader. But we know those exist as well, as we have seen at least two of them outside of China (the Brighton man infecting at least seven people in France and England, and the Chinese woman that traveled to Germany for the meeting and infected at least eight people at that meeting). I don't think you can presume transmission to "lots" of people based on one person . . . but also, it can happen.

Of course there's going to be a lot of suspect information in a case like this: A novel virus outbreak occurs in China (where information is tightly controlled relative to what we're used to in the west). Because the virus is new and because the information at the epicenter is so unreliable, of course there's going to be information on a pretty good range of reliability.

So what?
 
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Well the Americans who were aboard the cruise ship are on the way back to the states. Curious to see how they transport the ones who are sick. I imagine they're being transported separately.
 
DaveXA said:
Well the Americans who were aboard the cruise ship are on the way back to the states. Curious to see how they transport the ones who are sick. I imagine they're being transported separately.
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They're still going to have to go to quarantine, right?
 
DaveXA said:
I believe so. Watching news, it was stated they were being taken to military bases, so I assume they're gonna be quarantined there for some time. No idea how long though.
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Probably two weeks. Unless some new protocol requires longer.
 
DaveXA said:
Yeah, but I wonder if some had already been quarantined. Would those people have to restart the clock or can they count that time and be released sooner?
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My wife asked the same question - but I don't see how being on a known infected ship can be considered quarantine, even if movement on the ship is limited. Every day new positives are coming from that group of people, and the measures they instituted on-board were mitigation but I don't think they can be considered time in quarantine.
 
superchuck500 said:
My wife asked the same question - but I don't see how being on a known infected ship can be considered quarantine, even if movement on the ship is limited. Every day new positives are coming from that group of people, and the measures they instituted on-board were mitigation but I don't think they can be considered time in quarantine.
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Yeah, I was thinking more in terms of the ones who were/are sick. I'm guessing they're quarantined and would remain so until they recover. Curious how that would work.
 
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