COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (7 Viewers)

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Another new case in Spain, another case in Germany and Pakistan is now on the board.
Someone may want a link to the Pakistan cases (this site says two cases). I guess this will hold up and be corroborated by major sources soon.

 
Great chart showing how the world is about to surpass China in daily cases. I do think the Chinese numbers are fibbed to the low side but also think undetected spread in the rest of the world is on multiple of what it is in China.
 
For example, if it came out right now that the U.S. has ~5,000 people in the U.S. infected with the coronavirus right now ... would that be a "No way!" moment, or an "I knew it!" moment for most here?

Or are we more thinking that there just HAS to be a few dozen largely-asymptomatic cases running loose "in the wild" in the United States right now?

It would be no way for me - travel ban was instituted over 3 weeks ago - we should have seen hundreds of cases by now at minimum. There's no way all those cases are being kept on the QT in the US. China couldn't stop the spread of info, I don't see how the US could have.

There could be another wave coming though, especially if we don't institute the same bans for South Korea and Italy.
 
It would be no way for me - travel ban was instituted over 3 weeks ago - we should have seen hundreds of cases by now at minimum. There's no way all those cases are being kept on the QT in the US. China couldn't stop the spread of info, I don't see how the US could have.

There could be another wave coming though, especially if we don't institute the same bans for South Korea and Italy.
How do we know that there haven't been hundreds of cases?

We don't test for it.

The shipping department at my job is missing 6 of 13 people for "the flu" this week.
 
It would be no way for me - travel ban was instituted over 3 weeks ago - we should have seen hundreds of cases by now at minimum. There's no way all those cases are being kept on the QT in the US.
I will say that it's pretty amazing there hasn't seemed to be any appreciable person-to-person transmission in the U.S. Probably a few missed here and there. But I agree with you -- even without testing, an uptick in hospital patients requiring ventilators wouldn't go unnoticed.
 
How do we know that there haven't been hundreds of cases?

We don't test for it.
Yes, but symptom severity (esp. chest X-ray results) should still be a proxy for a firm test, no? Then you'd have to extrapolate from there -- "If we can 'confirm' 20 cases via chest X-ray, then there are maybe ~500-1000 cases nationwide."
 
It would be no way for me - travel ban was instituted over 3 weeks ago - we should have seen hundreds of cases by now at minimum. There's no way all those cases are being kept on the QT in the US. China couldn't stop the spread of info, I don't see how the US could have.

There could be another wave coming though, especially if we don't institute the same bans for South Korea and Italy.
Well, if the spread started in November in China and Doctors didn't start noticing uptick in cases for another month after that so...

What scares me, New York doesn't have a single verified case. They had direct flights from Shanghai, Hong Kong, Wuhan, Beijing, Milan, Rome, Seoul and many other places in the impact region. New York City is a top 3 destination for traverlers from China, Japan, Italy and South Korea. Population of New York City is 40% more than all of British Columbia. New York City has 400% more international Flights than British Columbia. BC has 7 cases, NYC has 0.

London, Paris, Milan, Rome, San Fransisco, LA, San Diego, Seattle, Vancouver, Madrid, Chicago and just about every other major international city in Europe has seen cases. The most likely of all, New York City, has seen none. NYC has had a total of 7 tests performed.

There are about 150 hospitals in the New York and New Jersey areas. For every hospital there are probably hundreds of gerenal doctors offices. Each doctors office likely has multiple doctors. We're in the peak of flu and respiratory season. Any single doctor would likely have to see mutliple cases that reflect covid-19 with negative flu test before alarms would start being raised. You do the math. Also, doctors are all over Twitter with cases that look like covid-19, negative flu, travel history to impacted areas and complaining of no way to test. It's entirely possible we could be well underway and not even know it. Now, you would think we'd start having deaths and that would be a clear sign right? Well, we have someone on this friend that returned from Iran on Valentines Day, showed the same symptoms of Covid-19 and died without getting tested. So how many would it take before it through up a red flag? It's why testing is so important.
 
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How do we know that there haven't been hundreds of cases?

We don't test for it.

What about those initial cases? Those were tested. Are you saying we intentionally stopped testing? Regardless of testing methodology, diagnosis is up to individual doctors. Are you saying all the hundreds of thousands/millions of doctors are purposefully not diagnosing Covid-19?

The shipping department at my job is missing 6 of 13 people for "the flu" this week.

If they come back in 2-3 days, its not Covid-19. Covid-19 patients have severe symptoms for around a week at minimum.
 
Just throwing this out there. Particularly for NYC or any other major international hub, we are not hearing of any doctors getting sick or dying, like what's happening in China. If there were numerous untested people getting COVID19 and going to doctors for treatment, then you have to think some would be infected by now. Just a thought.
 
What about those initial cases? Those were tested. Are you saying we intentionally stopped testing? Regardless of testing methodology, diagnosis is up to individual doctors. Are you saying all the hundreds of thousands/millions of doctors are purposefully not diagnosing Covid-19?
Covid-19 shares symptoms with other illnesses. Doctors can't definitively diagnose by hand-waving ("Well, could be flu, could be the covid-19 virus, I'll flip a coin"). Tests are necessary for diagnosis.

If they come back in 2-3 days, its not Covid-19. Covid-19 patients have severe symptoms for around a week at minimum.
From the available evidence, this isn't accurate. Symptoms for people who've contracted covid-19 vary considerably, from mild to no symptoms, to severe pneumonia and death.

See q&a here: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

"The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don't feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness. About 2% of people with the disease have died. People with fever, cough and difficulty breathing should seek medical attention. "
 
Yes, but symptom severity (esp. chest X-ray results) should still be a proxy for a firm test, no? Then you'd have to extrapolate from there -- "If we can 'confirm' 20 cases via chest X-ray, then there are maybe ~500-1000 cases nationwide."
They don't test for it.

They don't have tests for it.

The last that I saw, only three states have the ability to test for it. I'm not in one of those states. I'm a few miles away from one, but that doesn't help.
 
Infected but it could see extreme rates of infection too. It really just depends if Iran allows outside help to come in because they lack the resources.

Like I said yesterday after watching this report. I think the world has VASTLY underrated the Chinese response, myself included. Really long but worth the watch to really understand just how far ahead the Chinese are than the rest of the world to handle something like this. Now, I still think the data was manipulated significantly before the WHO got there. I also think the Chinese are downplaying regions outside of Hubei right now but it doesn't change the response level. It's really good news the Chinese were able to get things under control but at the same time, the level of response it took to get there is not something that can be matched by many, if any. He states multiple times the mindset of the world isn't close to ready after what he saw in China.


The outcome from this may be that China teaches the world how to combine big data and incident command structure on a national to local level. The US has seen failed responses to big natural disasters because we lack the pre-planning or we don't practice the plan prior to disaster on the scale needed for response.

The narrative has been the WHO was praising China to get in the door. Well, they finally looked around the place and the answer is the rest of the world isn’t prepared.

This makes me really worried about Iran. Also a bit P'Oed at the CDC and the leaders above for what looks like a slow response designed to hide deficiencies and avoid panic.
 
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