COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (11 Viewers)

[sfidc3]

Come on. People worrying about “overreach” of government and calling them whiny is a bit much.

My big issue, where were all these “patriots” when the Patriot Act was passed.

Perhaps I should have qualified my statement, people who refuse to wear masks when in close proximity to other people and/or in required establishments are putting themselves and others at risk....and are acting like spoiled children....

Still disagree? Good point on the Patriot Act.....

 

[J.T.]

Barstool Sports:
(At least it is sort of sports related.)

(Won't link because of language.)

This is what you are dealing with. No matter where you stand on this issue, this is a growing segment of the population.

If this type of video can be linked here, somebody else can link it. Look up:

Dave Portnoy Shutdown Rant

On YouTube

 

[Xeno]

He is.



Is that a question? What's your definition of dilute? I don't agree with your opinion of his opinion.



Can you post a link to this format? His counterpoint is simply to disagree, is that a point at all?



This is.

What's your definition of dilute? The way I see it, you're the one trying to start a fight here by nitpicking the way someone formats their response to your post. He responded to everything you said. It's all there. He didn't dilute anything. If your point gets lost because of a difference in formatting then you probably didn't have much of a point to begin with.

Now let me respond. I don't think I've seen you post anything in this thread other than various forms of, "It's time to re-open." You say you want it done intelligently, with all these safety measures. Here's the problem: almost nobody is doing that. We're seeing a hodgepodge of different efforts across the country. We're seeing assaults and murders over people being asked to wear a mask. We seem to be utterly incapable as a nation of doing what you believe we should do. Shoulda, coulda, woulda is all fine and dandy but we prove time and time again that we can't follow through with basic safety protocols. The few times I've gone grocery shopping I could count on one hand the number of people wearing masks, and that was with the stay-at-home orders in place. We aren't ready, not because of what the virus is doing but because we aren't mature enough to do what we should be doing.

 

[B4YOU]

.......
So, if the end game is that the majority of the population will get infected, it is just a matter of time, then we will wait for the virus to come and get us. It is almost inevitable in a way.

I am not advocating this approach, I have read numerous articles about this, and I have no way of knowing what their end result will be, but Sweden has taken a different approach. They appear to be biting the apple and going for "herd immunity" which is incredibly risky because it can lead to an overwhelmed health care system and more deaths, at least in the short term. In the long run, it might be essentially the same end result, if the majority of the population gets exposed anyway. (There are more scientific articles about Sweden and what is going on there, the numbers are worse in Sweden vs other Scandinavian countries, but they are better than some other countries in Europe.)

Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s

Herd immunity is the only realistic option—the question is how to get there safely.

www.foreignaffairs.com

I posted why Sweden has arguably had the worst response strategy of the Western world. I don't accept the premise that most people catching the virus was inevitable from the start. I don't think modeling our response after Sweden would be a wise decision.

COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

Just to be clear, the US is not leading the world in deaths per Capita, and it’s not even close compared to the worst hit countries in Europe. I believe this site updates their data daily, these numbers are as of 5/4...

saintsreport.com

 

[jasonsw]

I think you are discounting the effects of fear, uncertainty, unemployment, telework, and disease. American demand is both shifting and decreasing while savings rates climb. Necessity and a shared threat changes attitudes.

Americans are hoarding cash: Savings rate hits its highest level since 1981

Americans are so nervous about the state of the economy that they are stashing cash in the bank at a rate unseen since the early part of Ronald Reagan's first term as president.

www.google.com

Shoppers begin to shift from stockpiling to penny pinching at the grocery store

Customers' grocery shopping patterns may look different from prior economic downturns, though, since people are juggling health concerns along with budget-consciousness.

www.cnbc.com

They say stockpiling money is a deathnell for the economy. Shoot I've never cared. Nor have I ever put money in the stock market. I just hoard cash been doing it forever.

The greatest piece of advice my grandparents ever gave me was to save and don't blow your money. They too were anti stockmarket. Sure my money will never double but it won't go away either.

 

[bclemms]

They say stockpiling money is a deathnell for the economy. Shoot I've never cared. Nor have I ever put money in the stock market. I just hoard cash been doing it forever.

The greatest piece of advice my grandparents ever gave me was to save and don't blow your money. They too were anti stockmarket. Sure my money will never double but it won't go away either.

Negative interest rates told me to tell you, "Hi".

 

[sammymvpknight]

I think one issue with Florida is what I think is a higher percentage of elderly people which could honestly cut both ways. They may be less likely to go out and get infected, but they are also more likely to die from being infected. Part of the problem you are going to have comparing any states, as I'm sure you know, is limiting the variables of the culture, geography, and demographics. Those things will change the numbers and really have nothing to do with how the government responded.

I mean, it's part of why Sweden is so controversial. Their culture is so different from ours that's it seems unlikely that what they did would work anywhere else, even if you believe that what they did is working.

I'm going to simplify my outcome measures and it's not going to be superscientific. I'll try to answer the question of whether what each state is doing is reasonable in their current circumstances, what outcome measures are they following and how are they using stats to direct policy, and I'll try to flip the stats with the state policies to see if their decision making would change.

 

[Loose Cannon]

I'm going to simplify my outcome measures and it's not going to be superscientific. I'll try to answer the question of whether what each state is doing is reasonable in their current circumstances, what outcome measures are they following and how are they using stats to direct policy, and I'll try to flip the stats with the state policies to see if their decision making would change.

I don't think you can use Texas due to our climate, diversity and the spread-outedness of it. There's not really a corollary for Texas anywhere in the country. Same problem with Cali and Florida. Texas vs. California doesn't really work either because we don't have any mass transit, and our population density in the cities is still much lower than Cali. I think you'd need to pick two relatively homogenous states that have similar climates and population densities.

I'd do Illinois vs. Indiana, or Michigan vs. Pennsylvania. Probably the latter, because with IL vs. IN you have one with a huge city and one without.

You definitely have to control for climate, though. I'm pretty confident the hot southern states and California are faring better right now because of the weather.

This might help: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

I hope you go forward with it - always interested in this type of analysis.

 

[dtc]

Tipping point to what? This is a false narrative that we're somehow arriving to the point that America will topple if we don't return to normalcy soon.

I'm more concerned that the MAGAs are going to lose their minds and begin to violently express their hatred and insecurities. I'm even more worried that someone shooting at a governor will be characterized as "Good People" by POTUS and further escalate what seems to be a mindless revolution fomenting among the MAGAs.

 

[FootballLady]

I'm more concerned that the MAGAs are going to lose their minds and begin to violently express their hatred and insecurities. I'm even more worried that someone shooting at a governor will be characterized as "Good People" by POTUS and further escalate what seems to be a mindless revolution fomenting among the MAGAs.

There is some evidence for that.

 

[dtc]

Come on. People worrying about “overreach” of government and calling them whiny is a bit much.

My big issue, where were all these “patriots” when the Patriot Act was passed.

Stop already.

They're not "patriots" they're pablum puking children whose mommies never taught them that 4th place was close to last. In the greatest of ironies, the term snowflake comes to mind.

Imagine how shallow one must be to carry a big old gun while wearing a mask and Walmart fatigues to protest that donut shops and ice cream shops are closed in order to prevent the deaths of millions.....

 

[J.T.]

I posted why Sweden has arguably had the worst response strategy of the Western world. I don't accept the premise that most people catching the virus was inevitable from the start. I don't think modeling our response after Sweden would be a wise decision.

COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

Just to be clear, the US is not leading the world in deaths per Capita, and it’s not even close compared to the worst hit countries in Europe. I believe this site updates their data daily, these numbers are as of 5/4...

saintsreport.com

I think it is very difficult to make a certainty call on any of this right now. In football terms, where are we in this global pandemic? I would say, mid-way through the first half, maybe a few minutes into the second quarter? Some countries have done an outstanding job, Taiwan (Sorry China, I consider Taiwan to be an independent country), South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Germany. The vast majority of Europe has done a pretty poor job compared to the stellar performers of the world, I think parts of the USA are in that latter group of European poor performers, especially New York and New Jersey. California appears to be doing better.

I guess we will know how this all went when it is over, whenever that is. I would put over as being when; we have reached "natural" herd immunity in different locals because the virus has basically spread to such a degree that it is nowhere near as easy to naturally propagate, we have very robust treatments so that the virus is nowhere near as deadly, or we have a vaccine available in sufficient doses and it is administered broadly so as to impart vaccine induced herd immunity.

Sweden is essentially pushing deaths into the present, a pretty gruesome way to look at it, but that is essentially what they are doing. If either treatments or a vaccine don't come about prior to the rest of the world getting to whatever the total infection rate becomes in Sweden, we will all be in essentially the same boat. We won't know the true outcome until this is "over" and that is still a long ways away.

 

[sammymvpknight]

I don't think you can use Texas due to our climate, diversity and the spread-outedness of it. There's not really a corollary for Texas anywhere in the country. Same problem with Cali and Florida. Texas vs. California doesn't really work either because we don't have any mass transit, and our population density in the cities is still much lower than Cali. I think you'd need to pick two relatively homogenous states that have similar climates and population densities.

I'd do Illinois vs. Indiana, or Michigan vs. Pennsylvania. Probably the latter, because with IL vs. IN you have one with a huge city and one without.

You definitely have to control for climate, though. I'm pretty confident the hot southern states and California are faring better right now because of the weather.

This might help: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

I hope you go forward with it - always interested in this type of analysis.

I'm not going to get into the stats that much. I'm not going to try to pull off a multivariant analysis. That would be crazy time consuming and I agree, I don't think that I'd be able to control for all of the variables. I think that the smarter route is to look at the policies, their goal outcome measures, how they are measuring up to those goals, and whether what the state is doing is reasonable based on their stats, outcome measures, and goals. Then I'd assume that the stats were associated with the opposite state, and determine if their decisions would or SHOULD be different based on their outcome measures and goals for reopening. It's going to be an observational study...but honestly, I think that it may be more valuable than anything the internet currently has.

 

[Dago]

Tipping point to what? This is a false narrative that we're somehow arriving to the point that America will topple if we don't return to normalcy soon.

Who said topple? You are creating a false narrative by misrepresenting what is being said. The concern is a massive depression.

7.5 million small businesses are at risk of closing, report finds

Millions of small businesses will close permanently if disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic persists, according to a new survey from Main Street America.

www.cnbc.com

Coronavirus Bankruptcy Tracker: These Major Companies Are Failing Amid The Shutdown

Some of the 20th century’s biggest names in corporate America are in danger of going the way of Sears, Blockbuster and RadioShack.

www.forbes.com

 

[Booker]

I think it is very difficult to make a certainty call on any of this right now. In football terms, where are we in this global pandemic? I would say, mid-way through the first half, maybe a few minutes into the second quarter? Some countries have done an outstanding job, Taiwan (Sorry China, I consider Taiwan to be an independent country), South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Germany. The vast majority of Europe has done a pretty poor job compared to the stellar performers of the world, I think parts of the USA are in that latter group of European poor performers, especially New York and New Jersey. California appears to be doing better.

I guess we will know how this all went when it is over, whenever that is. I would put over as being when; we have reached "natural" herd immunity in different locals because the virus has basically spread to such a degree that it is nowhere near as easy to naturally propagate, we have very robust treatments so that the virus is nowhere near as deadly, or we have a vaccine available in sufficient doses and it is administered broadly so as to impart vaccine induced herd immunity.

Sweden is essentially pushing deaths into the present, a pretty gruesome way to look at it, but that is essentially what they are doing. If either treatments or a vaccine don't come about prior to the rest of the world getting to whatever the total infection rate becomes in Sweden, we will all be in essentially the same boat. We won't know the true outcome until this is "over" and that is still a long ways away.

I think we're still in the first quarter. There was a power outage delay for awhile, but they've got the lights back on now and play has resumed.