COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (26 Viewers)

[RazorOye]

I don't want to put a damper on flying because I know your job depends on it, but looking at that post from the Doctor that Oye linked above, airplanes are going to be a major issue for containing the virus in an open world. Especially if airlines continue filling every seat with a passenger and I know they likely will because that's really the only way they make money.

this was addressed in an article in the Toronto Star a couple of days ago:

Why flying is about to get a lot more expensive — for good

One-day business trips are over. So are economy cabins packed with passengers. The discount airline business model is dead, our experts say, and it’s never coming back.

www.thestar.com

The strategy that made flight affordable to the masses was simple — cramming as many people as possible into a plane and turning that aircraft around within an hour of touchdown with another jammed load, says Chandra.

Social distancing will put an end to that, he says.

And that means far fewer passengers on planes that will need to be sanitized for hours before reloading.

“So the cost of travelling is going to go up, that’s a fact,” says Frederic Dimanche, director of the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism at Ryerson University....

Dimanche says the risk of infection and longer security and boarding times — possibly double the pre-pandemic cattle lines — will discourage most business travel.

this bit of predicting seems pretty dire too, though extreme and who knows longterm, but still

“The quick business trip of a day or the round trip from one place to another is dead,” he says.

 

[Loose Cannon]

this was addressed in an article in the Toronto Star a couple of days ago:

Why flying is about to get a lot more expensive — for good

One-day business trips are over. So are economy cabins packed with passengers. The discount airline business model is dead, our experts say, and it’s never coming back.

www.thestar.com

this bit of predicting seems pretty dire too, though extreme and who knows longterm, but still

Yeah, I have a hard time buying this. Maybe temporarily. But long-term I doubt it's going away.

I always try to get in person for any meeting that needs 90 minutes or more, even it means a super annoying zero-nights trip where I'm at the airport at 5am and back home at 10pm. That face time builds rapport in a way that a Zoom meeting never will. You don't take lunch breaks between training sessions and talk about your client's kids over Zoom. You don't have drinks at 4pm after all-day meetings and talk about your client's fishing boat over Zoom.

I'm a huge work from home, work smarter not harder, use technology guy, buy the above is not gonna change. Wish it would because I hate those trips more than anything, but it is what it is.

 

[St. Widge]

Some of that is cost of living, but yes, your point is valid.

Agreed that some of it is cost of living and that the point is still valid. But, I'll also add that some of it is the high cost of education, especially college and in some places the cost of just sending kids to school. The cost of a college education has skyrocketed to the point where it costs over $20K per year just to go to a state school. Which means spending nearly $100K just to get a degree that makes you minimally qualified for a $45K per year starting job. And that's if people are lucky. Basically we are sending kids out into the workforce already in a large amount of debt for degrees that mean next to nothing.

Throw in private school for kids in places where the public schools are terrible and the cost of living is out of control. And I think that makes people feel like there is nothing they can do about their situation so they just live with being in debt and buying things that make them happy in the short term.

 

[efil4stnias]

LOL. Bit of a tangent but I couldn't agree with this more. My wife is super irritated because her sister and her husband informed her this weekend that they are building a custom home that costs significantly more than ours and will be uber-modern Chip and Joanna Gaines approved.

They are on actual food stamps right now. She is unemployed currently and he is a not very successful realtor. And even at full employment, they make probably 30% of what we do combined.

My wife was on the warpath this weekend - they have a $50,000 truck, a $50,000 conversion van (they have four kids), and will have a more expensive house than us. We drive Hyundais - both are paid off. LOL.

There was no listening to reason; that our house is in a much, much more desirable location (MUCH), that they will likely not end up being successful in that house as history has shown, amongst other huge gaps in lifestyle and future lifestyle that I won't specifically call out because I don't want to be a douche. She just knows that her sister will have shiplap and a modern farmhouse look and she can't see past that. Cracks me up.

I mostly hung out with the dog in the game room and drank booze for all of Saturday. 5 years of marriage. It took me awhile, but I'm learning.

It took me 21 years to arrive where i am today.

We are in a new subdivision. I built last year semi custom because i didnt want the headache of massive change orders from the wife and interior designer teaming up against me. Houses are still popping up left and right ( few lots left now which is good ) and most of the new buyers are are late 20s, early 30s types. We moved in March 2019 and there was MAYBE 1-2 ppl with golf carts. We now have close to 15 running around a subdivision with 5 streets - 3 which are cul de sacs. Kids from 10-15 driving around - Those stimulus checks went to work.

its insanity. absolute insanity. I drive a 2010 Acura, wife has 2016 Acura and im currently in market for oldest who, by the grace of God, DOES NOT CARE what she gets. ( Meanwhile one of her besties just got a 2018 Jeep Rubicon ) Ive always ALWAYS wanted an Audi ( frst was that A5, now eyes on ETRON ) but i just cant FATHOM spending $50,000 plus on a car to get me from point A to B. As much as i want, ill never have because im too !@#!@# cheap and frugal ( to most that know me ).

My wife laments the same as yours after 20 YEARS of marriage lol. Her younger brother at the age of 26 had a boat, 2 tricked out 4 wheelers, a $40,000 truck. I kept explaining he still lived at HOME. Didnt matter. Made her mental. Today? no boat, no 4 wheelers, and a 2013 Dodge ram.

Life takes its turns, and if you arent prepared for them, you will find yourself on the wrong side of it every time.

as to the shiplap- yeah we nixed that and went with wainscot in entry and dining area- that !@#!#@ is absolutely timeless. I didnt grow up on a farm, didnt have cows or goats, so had no need for farmhouse look in my living room and entry or blasted sliding farm doors instead of locking doors. Good luck with all that privacy you look for on a Friday nite after the wife has had 2-3 bourbons

 

[efil4stnias]

Agreed that some of it is cost of living and that the point is still valid. But, I'll also add that some of it is the high cost of education, especially college and in some places the cost of just sending kids to school. The cost of a college education has skyrocketed to the point where it costs over $20K per year just to go to a state school. Which means spending nearly $100K just to get a degree that makes you minimally qualified for a $45K per year starting job. And that's if people are lucky. Basically we are sending kids out into the workforce already in a large amount of debt for degrees that mean next to nothing.

Throw in private school for kids in places where the public schools are terrible and the cost of living is out of control. And I think that makes people feel like there is nothing they can do about their situation so they just live with being in debt and buying things that make them happy in the short term.

i cant wait til 2022. ( oldest graduates HS ) im scared to death of costs in 2022.

 

[St. Geezy]

PA don't play.

Wow, that thread is incredible.

Not only just the follow-up tweets by the governor, but also the reaction from his constituents. Crazy.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah, I don't know your financial situation and I wasn't directing my post at any particular person or personal situation. But what I had in mind is people making $80,000k+ per year over a period of time who are living paycheck to paycheck. There's no excuse for that.

You already know this, but it goes without saying that $80k in Texas/Louisiana is miles different from $80k in the metro DC, NYC and several other large metro areas. The average income in my county is well over that amount. And the cost of living reflects that.

Edit, and of course I'm late and it's been eloquently addressed by others here. Well done mates.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I don't want to put a damper on flying because I know your job depends on it, but looking at that post from the Doctor that Oye linked above, airplanes are going to be a major issue for containing the virus in an open world. Especially if airlines continue filling every seat with a passenger and I know they likely will because that's really the only way they make money.

I mean, it ticks all the bad boxes - close proximity, face to face, recirculated air, contact for well over 10 minutes. They can sanitize and clean all they want but it probably only takes one infected person on a plane to infect at least a quarter of the people on board, maybe more.

Basically the airlines are going to have to get really creative or people are just going to have to accept that flying is really risky with regard to getting the virus.

A few quick thoughts.

1. It's why their cleaning procedures are important.
2. More important is making people wear masks and consider suspending beverage services.
3. More important is screening people who might be ill and just not letting them fly.
4. Aircraft Air is recirculated with fresh air from outside, and through HEPA filters. The air is fully replaced about 15 times an hour, or every 4 minutes.

How 'stale' is the recycled air in a plane?

Though there is a continual flow of fresh air into the aeroplane, this has to be processed before it's introduced into the cabin.

www.sciencefocus.com

 

[St. Geezy]

 

[Saint_Ward]

So, looking at some state by state data on new Covid Cases (so not considering their hospital load, since some states do have very few cases). Just looking at trajectory.

We only have 12 states moving downward, and 6 (5 states, one commonwealth - PR) that's pretty flat. I didn't look at our other territories.

The 12 states moving in the good direction are....

Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New York (but still a lot of cases), and Vermont.

The 5 states and 1 territory that are pretty flat are....

Wyoming, Nevada, Oklahoma, Puerto Rico, West Virginia, and Washington State.

Every other state is going the bad direction, but most seemed pretty linear. That's 33 states going the wrong direction. Some worse than others, some have low numbers though. This also doesn't consider any containment.

 

[St. Widge]

i cant wait til 2022. ( oldest graduates HS ) im scared to death of costs in 2022.

Yeah, my daughter went from going to an expensive private school for grammar school to a very good free public school for high school. So we have had a big raise for the past 3 years. But after next year we have to figure out how to pay for college. Not really looking forward to it. She qualifies for the top of the Tops program, but I fear that will go away or that she will get into some school so good that I can't say no.

But, for my financial future, I have been teaching her to love purple and gold for a long time.

 

[St. Widge]

A few quick thoughts.

1. It's why their cleaning procedures are important.
2. More important is making people wear masks and consider suspending beverage services.
3. More important is screening people who might be ill and just not letting them fly.
4. Aircraft Air is recirculated with fresh air from outside, and through HEPA filters. The air is fully replaced about 15 times an hour, or every 4 minutes.

How 'stale' is the recycled air in a plane?

Though there is a continual flow of fresh air into the aeroplane, this has to be processed before it's introduced into the cabin.

www.sciencefocus.com

I did not know that about the HEPA filters and replacing the air every 4 minutes. I just assumed it was recycled and I just know that I often end up some kind of sick after flying. Of course, that could just be caused by the general stress of travel.

But, to be really safe and make the public feel safe, they are going to need to be able to actually test people for the virus because, as you know, many carriers are asymptomatic. Also, do we know if HEPA filters catch things as small as the corona virus? IIRC, its around .5 to 1 micron in size.

My hope is that this may lead to the airlines treating customers better because frankly flying has become a really miserable and something I hate to do. I only do it when I have no other choice and that's usually only for business purposes. But, I'm not holding my breath that the airlines will treat people better. I'm not sure if they are all doing it, but I saw some photos take by passengers this weekend on packed 747s with every seat occupied. Everyone appeared to be wearing masks, but I don't think that is going to be enough in a confined space.

 

[St. Geezy]

Coronavirus CAN enter the body through the eyes

A team led by Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine have found the eyes produce ACE-2, known as the 'gateway' into cells inside body.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[gboudx]

Yeah, my daughter went from going to an expensive private school for grammar school to a very good free public school for high school. So we have had a big raise for the past 3 years. But after next year we have to figure out how to pay for college. Not really looking forward to it. She qualifies for the top of the Tops program, but I fear that will go away or that she will get into some school so good that I can't say no.

But, for my financial future, I have been teaching her to love purple and gold for a long time.

My oldest is 20 and has been going to community college for 2 years. The cost savings is tremendous. I don't know how La is, but Tx requires all public universities to teach the same core subjects. So the classes you take at his community college is the same you take at Texas or A&M or North Texas, etc. He will transfer to a 4 year school after next Fall. Plus we make him have skin in the game by him paying his tuition upfront, then we repay him based on how many grades he has at B or higher. He wasn't a good high school student and we didn't want to waste our own money.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I did not know that about the HEPA filters and replacing the air every 4 minutes. I just assumed it was recycled and I just know that I often end up some kind of sick after flying. Of course, that could just be caused by the general stress of travel.

But, to be really safe and make the public feel safe, they are going to need to be able to actually test people for the virus because, as you know, many carriers are asymptomatic. Also, do we know if HEPA filters catch things as small as the corona virus? IIRC, its around .5 to 1 micron in size.

My hope is that this may lead to the airlines treating customers better because frankly flying has become a really miserable and something I hate to do. I only do it when I have no other choice and that's usually only for business purposes. But, I'm not holding my breath that the airlines will treat people better. I'm not sure if they are all doing it, but I saw some photos take by passengers this weekend on packed 747s with every seat occupied. Everyone appeared to be wearing masks, but I don't think that is going to be enough in a confined space.

By Definition... (from Wiki)

HEPA filters, as defined by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) standard adopted by most American industries, remove at least 99.97% of airborne particles 0.3 micrometers (μm) in diameter.

it still won't help you if someone sneezes and you're in the 'blast radius'. That's where wearing masks should limit what comes out and what you inhale.