COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (11 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

This thread needs moved to the map board and maybe we can just do a link only update thread here. I like seeing the info @superchuck500 posts along with a few others but it's getting pretty ridiculous to have to read through 2 pages of people crying about politics to get to them.

Who's crying about politics though? Some minimal discussion of it is going to be unavoidable because our national response to the virus is by definition politically influenced. It's going to be addressed to some degree because that will influence our individual responses. I get the frustration, but we're facilitating the covid discussion as best we can.

Not everyone will agree, but this is the approach we've taken.

 

[RazorOye]

This thread needs moved to the map board and maybe we can just do a link only update thread here. I like seeing the info @superchuck500 posts along with a few others but it's getting pretty ridiculous to have to read through 2 pages of people crying about politics to get to them.

you've contributed to that, too, though

I don't understand how people can complain about a problem while contributing to it - unless there's an acknowledgement that 'yes, I've done it, too'

that includes me - I know my posts were getting a bit too political, so you know what? I stopped. It's not always easy, but it's easy not to make the explicitly political comments like you did.

First, I'd say that if you're ever in doubt, then just post totally and obviously non-political stuff, which you've done plenty of times in the thread. It was really beneficial to follow, for example, what was happening in your own household and in your state. One of the few voices in this thread from that area of the country.

My aunt, who lives in Cincinnati, believes DeWine to be a pretty awful governor, overall, but has largely given him props for how he's been handling this pandemic.

You've talked about - and praised - DeWine's response. That's political, obviously. But it's also within the bounds of the parameters the moderators have set.

Second recommendation, when in doubt - report the post. Don't reply to it, trust the mods. The work they've been doing in this thread has been, I think, remarkably consistent. And I say that as someone who has had posts deleted by them.

It gets old to see repeated demands or recommendations to move it to the MAP board. It's been established the place and tone and content of this thread. I suppose you could go somewhere else online and find a thread. But I seriously doubt you'd find better than this. Follks on this board, esp props to @bclemms , who were on this early. This is a valuable repository of information, and most of it is objective and informed, with some speculative subjective, but still informed.

Third, I'd assume good intent. For the posts that tread a line, assume the poster is putting something there that is meaningful and measured. I didn't even think your endorsements for DeWine, for example, were along party lines. I never thought you were simply touting a politician because he sports a tag.

I think you should extend the same consideration to others when they are praising or criticizing policy. It's not specifically about a politician here or there but rather the decisions said politician is making. There are a lot more posters in this thread who are deliberately trying to abide by the thread's intentions. Posters are self-aware and routinely saying, "I know this is getting too political" and censoring themselves or bringing attention to mods' so that they can edit the post if they see fit.

It just happened a few posts ago.

The majority on this thread - from all sides - deserve a bit more credit than you've been giving recently. And I think that goes for anyone who thinks this thread is getting 'too political' in a negative way, regardless of which side you think the politicizing is coming from.

 

[RazorOye]

some interesting, potentially good news out of Canada:

Canada's first COVID-19 vaccine trials approved for Halifax university

A Halifax research team will be working with a Chinese manufacturer to run the first Canadian clinical trials for a possible COVID-19 vaccine.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement during his daily remarks on Saturday.

The trials have been approved by Health Canada and will take place at the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology (CCfV) at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

The Chinese company is working with Dr. Shen, who "is credited in China with developing a nasal spray that helped protect health-care workers against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and with making significant contributions to treating Ebola during the 2014-16 outbreak."

 

[bonnjer]

Interesting model site that gives projections based on a current data set for each state. LA looks pretty good. Others not so much. Predictive modeling always has to be taken with a grain of salt.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

covid19-projections.com

Yes, Louisiana does look good. Not sure how much I trust that, though. I'm guessing that predictive modeling is not going to take into account the stupidity levels of a great number of people.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

Yes, Louisiana does look good. Not sure how much I trust that, though. I'm guessing that predictive modeling is not going to take into account the stupidity levels of a great number of people.

That was essentielly my point earlier.

I actually think their assumptions(which you can link to and read, which I very much appreciate) are pretty good.

My only issue is the assumption that a re-rise in cases will be met with a reimposing of shelter-in-place type orders again. I am not very confident that will happen, or if it does, in any sort of timely manner.

 

[superchuck500]

New research casts doubt on the "pangolin as intermediate host" theory. Scientists still believe there is/was an intermediate host but that animal has yet to be conclusively identified.

Pangolins were not involved in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, study suggests

While pangolins could transmit viruses to humans, in this case, it seems they weren't involved.

www.sciencefocus.com

 

[St. Widge]

Yes, Louisiana does look good. Not sure how much I trust that, though. I'm guessing that predictive modeling is not going to take into account the stupidity levels of a great number of people.

I'm a bit skeptical for a couple reasons. First, because as noted above, it assume lock downs will happen in the event of a spike, but I'm not sure they would be ordered again because of politics and, even if the order is given again, I don't think people will pay attention. Second, unless I'm missing something, these numbers are based on what is going on before the LA Stay at Home Order ended. Hopefully that won't totally change it, but I would imagine it will result in at least some changes.

 

[DaveXA]

I'm a bit skeptical for a couple reasons. First, because as noted above, it assume lock downs will happen in the event of a spike, but I'm not sure they would be ordered again because of politics and, even if the order is given again, I don't think people will pay attention. Second, unless I'm missing something, these numbers are based on what is going on before the LA Stay at Home Order ended. Hopefully that won't totally change it, but I would imagine it will result in at least some changes.

Yeah, color me skeptical that once lockouts are lifted, the governors would reinstate them if there was a spike. I think it would largely hinge on the severity of the spike and what the hospitalization rates are. If the hospitals are at or beyond 70% full, I'd say that would be when they would relent and lock down again. We'll see.

 

[travelingsaintsfan]

If someone died from Covid-19 in their home and then the home was put up for sale would it need to be decontaminated? Also would the real estate agent have to disclose what happened?

 

[St. Geezy]

If someone died from Covid-19 in their home and then the home was put up for sale would it need to be decontaminated? Also would the real estate agent have to disclose what happened?

Depends on what state you live in, but for the most part, you only have to disclose it if it was a dramatic death, like a murder or a suicide, which would leave a stigma on the property.

If a buyer directly asks about it though, you do have to disclose it in most cases.

 

[DaveXA]

If someone died from Covid-19 in their home and then the home was put up for sale would it need to be decontaminated? Also would the real estate agent have to disclose what happened?

Considering it can take 30-60 days to close on the sale of the house, not to mention length of time on the market, I wouldn't worry so much about the contamination part.

But the disclosure, I have no idea. I know you are required to disclose problems with the home itself, but I'm not so sure about events happening in the home.

 

[RazorOye]

Really worrying when we just have federal leaders, in what are supposed to be non-partisan positions, outright lying about reality to advance their agenda as thousands of Americans are still dying every day:

and when you see things like this, it only increases that skepticism:

Georgia's latest errors in reporting COVID-19 data confounds...

a recently posted bar chart on the Georgia Department of Public Health’s website appeared to show good news: new confirmed cases in the counties with the most infections had dropped every single day for the past two weeks.

In fact, there was no clear downward trend.

apparently, the dates were put in the wrong order and the order in which they *happened* to be put made it look like a downward trend in cases that wasn't *actually* taking place.

Others worry the data is being portrayed in a way that favors Kemp’s early easing of restrictions. A separate graph on DPH’s page has led readers to think that cases were dropping dramatically, even though lower case numbers were the result of a lag in data collection.

“I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate,” said State Rep. Jasmine Clark, D-Lilburn, who received her doctorate in microbiology and molecular genetics at Emory University.

 

[jasonsw]

I don't think you can use Texas due to our climate, diversity and the spread-outedness of it. There's not really a corollary for Texas anywhere in the country. Same problem with Cali and Florida. Texas vs. California doesn't really work either because we don't have any mass transit, and our population density in the cities is still much lower than Cali. I think you'd need to pick two relatively homogenous states that have similar climates and population densities.

I'd do Illinois vs. Indiana, or Michigan vs. Pennsylvania. Probably the latter, because with IL vs. IN you have one with a huge city and one without.

You definitely have to control for climate, though. I'm pretty confident the hot southern states and California are faring better right now because of the weather.

This might help: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

I hope you go forward with it - always interested in this type of analysis.

On Saturday Texas reported its highest daily spike in Covid cases in a while. There were over 1800 new cases. This shows things are far from okay from opening up. I saw an article where bars are going to open up again. Because being socially responsible, preventing the spread of disease and drinking go well together.

With so many cases in Texas already, people not wearing mask frequently now this Virus is going to explode now.

Texas reports COVID-19 case spike in Amarillo with targeted testing strategy

The Amarillo Public Health Department reported 734 new, combined coronavirus cases in Potter and Randall County on Saturday.

www.kxan.com

 

[Eeyore]

Had to go to the hardware store for stuff to fix a bathroom sink. The place was packed. They won't let you in without a mask but the place is full of older people who have their masks under their noses.

I hope that the $600 kicker sticks to unemployment for the remainder of the year because it looks like the second wave is going to be historic and a lot of us are going to need it.

 

[gboudx]

On Saturday Texas reported its highest daily spike in Covid cases in a while. There were over 1800 new cases. This shows things are far from okay from opening up. I saw an article where bars are going to open up again. Because being socially responsible, preventing the spread of disease and drinking go well together.

With so many cases in Texas already, people not wearing mask frequently now this Virus is going to explode now.

Texas reports COVID-19 case spike in Amarillo with targeted testing strategy

The Amarillo Public Health Department reported 734 new, combined coronavirus cases in Potter and Randall County on Saturday.

www.kxan.com

Abbott and Patrick are fine with this.