COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 1.8M cases and 106,507 deaths in US) (130 Viewers)

Eeyore

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It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.
 
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DaveXA

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It's amazing how complex it is to do it right. Dont forget the sanitize the credit card before you put it back in you wallet. Also, find a gas pump facing the sun. I even try to avoid walking in areas that have a lot of foot traffic to try and prevent it from getting on my shoes.
I use the touchless cards, but the problem is they're not as widespread at gas pumps as they should be. I gotta be mindful of that depending on the station I go to.
 

dave_09

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Agreed. I think the two most important lingering questions are the one I just mentioned and the one you're intimating, about how many people actually have it but never get symptoms or just barely do but attribute it to allergies or whatever. What if a million of us have already had it and don't even know Herd immunity would be much sooner if so.

Is herd immunity that effective with this? I remember reading a few times that this virus has a higher than average relapse rate but I don't know how reliable the info was.
 

superchuck500

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Agreed. I think the two most important lingering questions are the one I just mentioned and the one you're intimating, about how many people actually have it but never get symptoms or just barely do but attribute it to allergies or whatever. What if a million of us have already had it and don't even know Herd immunity would be much sooner if so.
I understand that this idea that it's been going around and many of us have already had it is appealing for a lot of reasons.

But I would be very careful with entertaining that idea. While a fix on the data remains difficult because indeed there are infections that are mild enough that the victim never gets tested - we also know from the data sets that we do have that a significant percentage of the infected need hospital care. Whether that actual percentage of overall infections is 5 percent (on the low side of any modeling or extrapolation) or 20 percent (observed rates in some localities - recognizing that many other unconfirmed cases are out there), the fact remains that "a million of us already had it" is almost certainly not true because that would have resulted in 50,000 or more hospitalizations - and that wouldn't have gone unnoticed.

Korea only had 8,900 confirmed cases - but their hospital data shows that in Daegu alone, there were (at one point) 5,000 suspect cases hospitalized and more than 2,000 waiting on hospital beds (cite below). I think the hospitals are the best gage of how widespread the outbreak is and while it's clearly more than the confirmed case number - it's not likely that we're already a million cases in.



 

superchuck500

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NPs and CRNAs can intubate as well, as can paramedics. Not dumping on your post at all, just adding a few things on. Everything you're saying makes sense.

ETA realized not everyone speaks in hospital acronyms, I've just been slowly brainwashed by my wife. NP = nurse practitioner, and CRNAs are anesthetists.
No, thanks- that's good info, I wasn't sure. That makes the Korean approach (of having "ventilation dorms" for non-critical patients) even more sensible.
 

Brees4prez

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I use the touchless cards, but the problem is they're not as widespread at gas pumps as they should be. I gotta be mindful of that depending on the station I go to.
I really hope Apple pay and other touchless pay becomes more available after all of this. I also hope automatic doors become more available. The government should probably give retail businesses tax credits to have these things.
 

Brennan77

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NPs and CRNAs can intubate as well, as can paramedics. Not dumping on your post at all, just adding a few things on. Everything you're saying makes sense.

ETA realized not everyone speaks in hospital acronyms, I've just been slowly brainwashed by my wife. NP = nurse practitioner, and CRNAs are anesthetists.
My wife is a crna. Their entire crew has been reassigned for this purpose.

I think the problem with 'only quarantine the vulnerable' is that hospitalization rates are high - even among the general population. We have seen in Korea and New York that Covid hospitalizes a significant percentage of those infected between the ages of 20 and 50 . . . and even though their chance of dying is very small, the stress on the health-care system is great.

Perhaps if we come up with off-site ventilation wards where those who need ventilation but are likely to survive can just go with minimal support - but we're just not set up for that. Plus, the process of intubating and ventilating isn't that simple - it requires a proper team of hospital, doctor-led staff.
I'm not sure the data in louisiana will support that. So far an overwhelming amount of people who die or are hospitalized have pretty specific other underlying conditions. The overwhelming majority of people who get this will never go to the doctor or be tested.
 

superchuck500

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Remember how last week when the Texas governor was talking sheet about the virus and mitigation efforts - seriously, is this just God's test of who the stupid people are?

 

superchuck500

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I'm not sure the data in louisiana will support that. So far an overwhelming amount of people who die or are hospitalized have pretty specific other underlying conditions. The overwhelming majority of people who get this will never go to the doctor or be tested.
What do you consider to be an overwhelming majority?
 

Brennan77

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What do you consider to be an overwhelming majority?
I posted this in the main thread but so far the death rate is as follows.

Breakdown of preexisting conditions among louisiana deaths due to covid. Many people had more than one of these conditions.

Condition / % of deaths
Pulmonary: 18%
Cardiac: 23%
Diabetes: 41%
Chronic Kidney Disease: 31%
Chronic Liver Disease: 1%
Immunocompromised: 4%
Neurological: 5%
Obesity: 28%
No Underlying Conditions: 5%
 

Loose Cannon

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we also know from the data sets that we do have that a significant percentage of the infected need hospital care. Whether that actual percentage of overall infections is 5 percent (on the low side of any modeling or extrapolation) or 20 percent (observed rates in some localities - recognizing that many other unconfirmed cases are out there)
Fair post and I'm definitely not saying I would put money on there being that money sleeper cases. But it's a possibility. Do we really have any good data on any sort of population where the entire population was tested? From what I can see, pretty much everywhere, only those that are symptomatic are tested. I do know that positive rates are around 15-20% in most places, which would indicate there's not a huge amount of sleeper cases.

I don't know that we'll ever really know until we can test for the antibodies, which I think we're a ways out.
 

gboudx

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Remember how last week when the Texas governor was talking shirt about the virus and mitigation efforts - seriously, is this just God's test of who the stupid people are?

I don’t remember what Abbott said about mitigation efforts. Dan Patrick’s comments about seniors sacrificing for the good of society was memorable though.
 

LuvNOLA

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Okay so sorry- maybe do something else. This is cheesy
Tons of stars though, right??? Raising $$$ for first responders kids???!!! Plus, they are all recording from their homes, so you get to peek at how they live. ?

That is what came up on my news feed......but I am not near a TV, so I won’t be able to check it out for awhile.
 

superchuck500

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I don’t remember what Abbott said about mitigation efforts. Dan Patrick’s comments about seniors sacrificing for the good of society was memorable though.
It was like a week ago (which is a huge amount of time in this thing), but today there was this - which, just like Florida, is sort of silly. There's already substantial community spread in your state. What the hell is a Louisiana travel restriction going to do now?

 

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