COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (27 Viewers)

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Notre Dame and UVA are planning the same - I think it will be a very popular model. They realize they can't charge $70K for zoom.

Even LSU is planning on having students back on Campus for the Fall Semester. But, I haven't seen any plan to have classes end before any anticipated second wave of COVID in the Fall.
 
But it'd be the perfect time for the city to dip their toes back into the proverbial water. A typically slow time of year with even fewer tourists/conventions is the perfect opportunity to get back on track in anticipation for the fall. So to not even have a chance at all is really disheartening, especially when that decision is based on false and unrealistic premises. The short of it is that my time as a resident of New Orleans may soon be coming to an end. I was waiting for this news to indicate what the summer might look like. It forking sucks and I just can't see a reasonable justification for it.

This. I don't care about the macro economy right now. I care about my friends and their businesses, and the local businesses that we support. If we give them some room to operate the macro will take care of itself.
 
My wife goes to a small yoga studio. A small business owned by one guy. I promise you there is a big difference between 25% occupancy and 50% occupancy for him.

I honestly do not understand the thought process that says "it wouldn't make a difference to these businesses anyway.." Let them decide! They are each keenly aware of whether its worth it to reopen or not at 25%, 50% or whatever.
it should be noted continuously and loudly that this is only a discussion/disagreement bc the federal government is not doing it's job to facilitate this crisis
your wife's yoga studio owner should not be forced into this dilemma
 
I get that on the micro level it makes a difference and that's why I'm okay with moving to Phase II at this point. But, I'm not sure it will make much difference on a macro level to the Orleans Parish economy. And being able to have 50% occupancy isn't going to help that guy if less than 25% want to show up anyway.

But, like I said, sure let him open at 50% occupancy. He'll either make money or he won't. I just don't think the odds are very good that he will and that will be due to the pandemic, not the decease in the occupancy he is allowed.

This is a very weak argument. For a LOT of businesses, as in most of my customers, 50% is the difference between opening the doors or keeping their employees at home. They were all waiting for this to at least fight and scrap for what they could. Maybe it still wouldn't have worked out but it's a hell of a lot better than not trying at all. The mayor has lost it. She's lazily hiding behind a vague notion of 'science' because she won't/can't let herself (or us) out of this faux safety zone.
 
it should be noted continuously and loudly that this is only a discussion/disagreement bc the federal government is not doing it's job to facilitate this crisis
your wife's yoga studio owner should not be forced into this dilemma

Yes and no. The federal guidance on what to do here is very clear (Phase 1 vs Phase 2 vs Phase 3). It's just that LaToya's not following it.


She's got some magic number of cases in her head and wont tell us what it is.
 
This is a very weak argument. For a LOT of businesses, as in most of my customers, 50% is the difference between opening the doors or keeping their employees at home. They were all waiting for this to at least fight and scrap for what they could. Maybe it still wouldn't have worked out but it's a hell of a lot better than not trying at all. The mayor has lost it. She's lazily hiding behind a vague notion of 'science' because she won't/can't let herself (or us) out of this faux safety zone.

I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not arguing we shouldn't move to Phase II.

I agree that 50% can make the difference between a business surviving and even 25% could. But it will be very business specific. Which is worth doing for the people it helps stay in business and keep people employed. But we could allow 100% occupancy and I still don't think it will matter for the New Orleas economy as a whole, because people don't want to go out in public to do things.

Moreover, I'm not saying we shouldn't be in Phase II. But, you can't force people to go out and spend money if they don't have it or if they don't want to risk getting/spreading COVID. And, based on the numbers from Open Table, it looks like people don't really want to go out spending money and increasing their own/others risk while doing things like dining out.
 
Yes and no. The federal guidance on what to do here is very clear (Phase 1 vs Phase 2 vs Phase 3). It's just that LaToya's not following it.


She's got some magic number of cases in her head and wont tell us what it is.


Frankly, the language of the Phase plan is pretty vague and leaves a lot of room for interpretation which is likely what the Mayor is using to try to justify what she is doing. The CDC had further guidance and specifics on the Phase plan and what should be required to move up phases. But someone prohibited the CDC from releasing that information. It would be a lot easier to argue with the Mayor if we had those CDC guidelines so she could be show the specific ways in which we have reached the goals.
 
Frankly, the language of the Phase plan is pretty vague and leaves a lot of room for interpretation which is likely what the Mayor is using to try to justify what she is doing. The CDC had further guidance and specifics on the Phase plan and what should be required to move up phases. But someone prohibited the CDC from releasing that information. It would be a lot easier to argue with the Mayor if we had those CDC guidelines so she could be show the specific ways in which we have reached the goals.

I think you are thinking of the draft reopening guidance for businesses, churches, schools, etc., that Trump quashed. I've seen a copy - it does not address when to go to Phase 2, just what entities should do once there.

I'm pretty sure the Phase to Phase guidance is what I linked above - its not hard - if you meet the gating criteria (availability of testing/beds/tracing), go to Phase I. If Phase I does not lead to a spike and you can still meet the gating criteria, go to Phase II. Repeat for Phase III

If there is some double secret standard that LaToya has, she should share it. Because up until now she and all the official City outlets have used their "dashboard" (linked in my post above) as their stated metrics for making these calls.
 
I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not arguing we shouldn't move to Phase II.

I agree that 50% can make the difference between a business surviving and even 25% could. But it will be very business specific. Which is worth doing for the people it helps stay in business and keep people employed. But we could allow 100% occupancy and I still don't think it will matter for the New Orleas economy as a whole, because people don't want to go out in public to do things.

Moreover, I'm not saying we shouldn't be in Phase II. But, you can't force people to go out and spend money if they don't have it or if they don't want to risk getting/spreading COVID. And, based on the numbers from Open Table, it looks like people don't really want to go out spending money and increasing their own/others risk while doing things like dining out.

I get your point but I think you're missing mine. You're basically arguing from a position of utilitarian ethics. If the results are the same the means don't matter. That's the opposite of the way I see things. If the New Orleans economy fails, I'd rather see it fail while having a shot than not at all. And if it has to be 'not at all' I'd rather it be based on sound reasoning and observation while favoring personal liberties at every opportunity. In other words, I'd rather go down fighting than stay home at the dubious order of Cantrell.
 
I think you are thinking of the draft reopening guidance for businesses, churches, schools, etc., that Trump quashed. I've seen a copy - it does not address when to go to Phase 2, just what entities should do once there.

I'm pretty sure the Phase to Phase guidance is what I linked above - its not hard - if you meet the gating criteria (availability of testing/beds/tracing), go to Phase I. If Phase I does not lead to a spike and you can still meet the gating criteria, go to Phase II. Repeat for Phase III

If there is some double secret standard that LaToya has, she should share it. Because up until now she and all the official City outlets have used their "dashboard" (linked in my post above) as their stated metrics for making these calls.

Yeah, I haven't seen the document. I've only seen information that there was stuff they were not allowed to release. So I'll trust that you are right that it doesn't give much more guidance. I do think the Phase plan is a little vague in that it doesn't provide specific numbers for goal, but I do agree that if LaToya has specific numbers in mind, she should share them.
 
I get your point but I think you're missing mine. You're basically arguing from a position of utilitarian ethics. If the results are the same the means don't matter. That's the opposite of the way I see things. If the New Orleans economy fails, I'd rather see it fail while having a shot than not at all. And if it has to be 'not at all' I'd rather it be based on sound reasoning and observation while favoring personal liberties at every opportunity. In other words, I'd rather go down fighting than stay home at the dubious order of Cantrell.

I really don't think we disagree at this point, except I don't really care enough about LaToya to be mad at her. I did support the Stay at Home Order and staying in Phase I longer than you wanted. And, I still think that was the correct decision. But, things have obviously changed with the numbers and we have had an opportunity to see what a Phase I opening would do to them. So, I think it's likely time to move to Phase II.

I'm not arguing that we should stay where we are since it won't make any difference any way and we might as well save lives if we can't save the economy based on Utilitarian ethics. I'm saying that we should try to save the economy by going to Phase II. Even if it doesn't save the entire economy, it will at least buy time to try to expand the economy to new sectors and at least allow some people to save their businesses and have jobs. But, that I don't think that it will be enough to actually save the economy even if we were 100% open because people don't have the money to spend, don't want to go out, and a tourist based economy reliant on travel and tourists won't fare well during a pandemic.

So, maybe this will make it clear. I agree with you that we are in a lot of trouble. I just don't think moving to Phase II or III will change that, but sure, go ahead and try. But, do it with the realization that it may not help on a macro level and that it may result in having to go back to Phase I or Stay at Home, if the death count gets too high or the hospitals do get overwhelmed.

The answer in the long term is going to be to diversify the economy into things that can continue to operate without tourists. Which is something that has been tried for a long time, but now is the time to double those efforts.
 
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